Thanks to TradingView for the new Minds feature, I've really been enjoying the bite-size thoughts and the real-time commentary from the TV community.
I am an orderflow gamer, so when I look at price charts, my goal is always to assess who's currently got the upper hand. When I know who is likely buying or selling, I test myself by trying to callout price action before it happens. If I'm wrong about how price paints out on the chart, I take pause and reassess my view.
Speaking of price action and BTC, I was surprised to see the absence of a robotically clean and sideways top at recent swing highs on the longer TFs. I've been watching PA intraday and calling the game fairly well.
I've been thinking BTC is going to meltdown and I've been sharing that message in Minds.
But I'm stuck. BTC bull runs are not usually finished until we reach robo top. That really hasn't happened.
I just want to call it out here and put it in stone, this thing might not be done.
If $40k becomes a floor of support and we see bullish price action off that level, we may very well see a run to $60k, that is the next obvious ceiling in my view.
If $40k becomes resistance, and we do continue melting down, BTC is gonna become as hard to predict as FX. I want my darn blockhead sideways top, and $60k is sitting there taunting me.
Jim Cramer says BTC is toast, stock indices are melting up, I won't be surprised at all if the bulls aren't done.
I am an orderflow gamer, so when I look at price charts, my goal is always to assess who's currently got the upper hand. When I know who is likely buying or selling, I test myself by trying to callout price action before it happens. If I'm wrong about how price paints out on the chart, I take pause and reassess my view.
Speaking of price action and BTC, I was surprised to see the absence of a robotically clean and sideways top at recent swing highs on the longer TFs. I've been watching PA intraday and calling the game fairly well.
I've been thinking BTC is going to meltdown and I've been sharing that message in Minds.
But I'm stuck. BTC bull runs are not usually finished until we reach robo top. That really hasn't happened.
I just want to call it out here and put it in stone, this thing might not be done.
If $40k becomes a floor of support and we see bullish price action off that level, we may very well see a run to $60k, that is the next obvious ceiling in my view.
If $40k becomes resistance, and we do continue melting down, BTC is gonna become as hard to predict as FX. I want my darn blockhead sideways top, and $60k is sitting there taunting me.
Jim Cramer says BTC is toast, stock indices are melting up, I won't be surprised at all if the bulls aren't done.
Trade closed: target reached:
I'm calling it here, I'm now a bear. If $70k is an overwhelming motivator to sell, what is $80k going to look like? It is obvious to me that the average player is exiting, we're now seeing parabolic decay- the market is pushing sideways as profit taking reigns supreme, and parabolic projections are being broken. We also have a double top that has formed on the daily, I think we're a couple weeks away from a significant downturn and the next bear market.
I do not think this has anything to do with 'the halving,' which is a common narrative being thrown around right now. That said, this event will likely cause some level of self-fulfilling prophecy where enough traders hit the sell button in unison; when that happens, liquidity largely disappears because nobody wants to catch a falling knife. Instead, the mass sell orders end up getting filled far below the current market at what will likely seed the first false base of the bear market. It could be $50K, that wouldn't surprise me. All the talking heads will say it's just a correction, until it goes sideways for and extended period, and a new wave of selling starts. I know many of you don't want to hear it, and I'm sorry, but I think we likely see
25K
again, more to come. If anyone has a persuasive bull case, please comment or reach out and change my mind!
I appreciate you all, this is a great community of people, trading is the best game in the world.
I do not think this has anything to do with 'the halving,' which is a common narrative being thrown around right now. That said, this event will likely cause some level of self-fulfilling prophecy where enough traders hit the sell button in unison; when that happens, liquidity largely disappears because nobody wants to catch a falling knife. Instead, the mass sell orders end up getting filled far below the current market at what will likely seed the first false base of the bear market. It could be $50K, that wouldn't surprise me. All the talking heads will say it's just a correction, until it goes sideways for and extended period, and a new wave of selling starts. I know many of you don't want to hear it, and I'm sorry, but I think we likely see
25K
again, more to come. If anyone has a persuasive bull case, please comment or reach out and change my mind! I appreciate you all, this is a great community of people, trading is the best game in the world.