BTC reality check! Flat wave C & Oct 26 bottom

We’re back on BTC to drill into my alternate Elliott Wave count and the cyclical roadmap. Cycle work pointed to an October top, which we’ve seen. I remain long-term bullish, but near term I still see a flat correction in play, with wave C unfolding.

Drivers
Elliott Wave structure

• The larger uptrend remains intact, but the current phase looks corrective as a flat: wave A as a flat, wave B irregular, and wave C unfolding in five subwaves.
  
• Near term, price action looks like we’re in or finishing wave 4 of C. By alternation, with wave 2 having been deep (around the 61.8% area), wave 4 often resolves shallower (around the 38.2% area). If it stretches closer to 50% and compresses, a triangle into a final wave 5 is plausible before completion of C.
  
• If C remains overlapping and wedge-like, an ending diagonal scenario keeps downside limited. If instead the decline is impulsive, this drop could be only wave 1 of a larger 5-wave move lower.
  
• Momentum-wise, higher-timeframe RSI shows divergence, consistent with a late-stage correction.
  

Cyclical framework

• Bitcoin’s recurring rhythm has often mirrored halving cycles: a bear phase roughly around a year, followed by multi-year bull advances.
  
• Symmetry between bottom→halving and halving→top continues to be informative. With the next halving due in 2028, the cycle window I’m monitoring points to a potential bottom window around Q4 2026 (often cited around October).
  
• This video focuses less on a single trade and more on the timing roadmap: when the corrective structure might complete and when to consider re-engaging for the longer term.
  

Key zones to watch

• If an ending diagonal plays out, a termination near the high-60Ks (around 69k area) would be consistent with “limited downside.”
  
• A more dramatic impulse path could open a wider “magnetic zone” of support roughly spanning the low-70Ks down toward the 50Ks, with deeper stretch risks if the impulse extends.
  
• Confirmation will depend on how wave 4 resolves and whether the next leg proves corrective (ED) or impulsive.
  

Trade idea
My base lens is structure-first, timing-second. If wave C finishes as an ending diagonal, downside should be limited in the high-60Ks and setting up a bullish continuation in 2026. If instead the drop proves impulsive (5 down), treat bounces (0.5–0.618 retraces) as opportunities to reassess shorts, with a support “magnet” spanning roughly low-70Ks to low-50Ks, and deeper risk if momentum accelerates. Validation hinges on how wave 4 resolves and whether the final leg is overlapping (ED) or cleanly impulsive.

If you want my annotated charts and live invalidation levels, drop a comment. Like and subscribe to catch the mid‑week follow‑up when wave 4/5 signals firm up.

This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.