BTC approaching apex of major support line and current channel

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
199 0
Bitcoin is approaching the apex of a major month's old support line and its current (2 days) channel.

Zoom out and you can notice that this support/resistance line has been significant at least since March month.

The next few hours is significant and should decide our next direction.

Comment: Bitcoin currently fighting to break the top of the important channel I just mentioned.
Notice the rejection and struggle to the top of that channel?
We may have an answer/decision soon.

Comment: I want to emphasize that #BTC has been hitting a MAJOR intersection of DOUBLE supports established since months ago. One down-sloping, the other horizontal across the 8100 mark. Does not look like $BTC can easily break this ~8100 area. Possibility of breaking upward out channel.

Comment: My rough Bitcoin trajectory "IF" we can break out of current 2-day downtrend channel soon:
BTC to: 8440 -> 8265 - 8560 (10-18hrs)

(I'll probably be away for a bit, catching up on business work)

Comment: Bitcoin Target 1 ~8440 (set 9 hrs ago) accomplished.
I exited Altcoins for now in profit, for quick scalp trade.
Assuming we retrace here, I expect BTC to get down to at least ~8315. If it breaks through that, there should be a stronger layer of support at ~8250.

Comment: My Bitcoin targets 1 & 2 for the day were met.
If we can manage to take off soon from this point, my next target is ~8525, within 7-11 hours.

Comment: Bitcoin Update - I've maintained in all my posts yesterday the strong support at ~8250 that price could fall to.
After bouncing off my 8315 first support, price pushed further down to the 8250.
Upside target (8550) still same, however time has now expanded: 10-18 hrs

The very wild, sharp swings from 1-2 days ago make the wave count a bit difficult to interpret.
Slight possibility of 5 very malformed waves being completed and correction down could occur, but this is not the main count I'm maintaining for now.
For today, I lean towards further uptrend to the 8500-8600 range.

Comment: My Bitcoin target didn't hold this time. Price stalled for hours around my 8250 lower target until broken down with massive sell volume. As mentioned in my last post, the particular zig-zag (circled) made the count difficult and a bit uncertain for me (now I think it was an ABC)

BTC still trying to stay supported on that sloping line, and does still have some chance of bouncing, but the conditions do look increasingly bearish.
~7800 is now a possibility, and possibility lower.
I'll let the market settle/decide direction a bit before my next plans.

Comment: I drew this chart (privately) a couple of days ago but never followed through with this as my main count, due to the odd structure of the E-wave & confluence of strong supports I saw at the 8100 level.
I'll study these movements of the past days & improve with time and experience

Comment: Although I'll personally wait things out for now, I thought I'd attempt a wave count.

On small (10m) timeframe, I see potentially 3 waves completed, with a 4th and 4th remaining that could take $BTC to ~7800.

Typically however, Wave-3 is 1.0 extension of Wave-1, and Wave-5, W1's 1.618 extension.

If BTC bulls want a turnaround, they should try to attempt that around these areas before getting lower.

Comment: As mentioned in my las update, I saw the possibility of BTC completing its downtrend around these current areas.
I was unsure if either 3 or 5 subW down were completed.

The formation that developed over the past 6 hours resembles that of a Wave-1 of 5 UP to me, rather than an ABC down.

Comment: If BTC can manage an extra push soon, the coming hours could possibly play out like this.
Right now there isn't strong volume to dictate the next direction, stay cautious.

Still at a confluence of major supports and resistances, which is slowing things down. (I'll be away a bit)

Comment: Bitcoin shot up to my 8200 mark, and stalled there for a bit as I expected, but I didn't expect the sharp, sudden volume.
Let's see if we can get to the 2nd upper point in my chart, ~8290 , before any retracement.
Comment: My upper BTC target of ~8290 was met. I temp exited Alts at very top for quick scalp.
Possible for BTC to try for 8300-3600 range before retracement, but a bit risky.
After better confirmation of this impulse end, I'll set a correction target.
Right now it's roughly 8100-8000.

Comment: Correction: Possible for BTC to try for 8300-3360* range before retracement, but a bit risky.
(I should be away for a bit, have some other work to catch up on)
Comment: Potential count where Bitcoin attempts a Bull Flag for a small push to ~8320.
I'll sit this one out as I believe if it does reach there, it will correct after, & the risk to reward isn't good.
Would only slightly consider if it pulled back to ~8150 first.
Support below @ ~8050.

Comment: All Bitcoin targets of yesterday met.
In my previous post, said I'd only consider re-entering BTC/Alts "if it pulled back to ~8150 first" (before getting to 8315 target).
It did exactly that, shot up after retracing to 8150.
I just didn't expect overshoot to 8400.
I will update after this settles a bit.

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