MRS Watanabe
Long

Cup & Handle Fibo Projection Parabolic move

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
394 6 4
This chart projection is valid for all BTC vs Fiat. We are in a parabolic move that targets $960.1
In my opinion BTC will want to test the bigger number. $1,000 and could go even higher and stay sky high, as BTCs             are of limited availability and still subject to laws of supply and demand it is hard to put a final price target.
evets.wal
3 years ago
All due respect, but isn't speaking of a "final target price" in regards to a monetary representation a little absurd? In economy there is only equilibrium price. There is never final pricing unless we are discussing the very final exchange of a thing resulting in the disappearance of a particular market. We are truly only measuring a thing's comparative purchasing power when weighing BTC against other forms of money, be they originating through fiat or volition.

I appreciate the analysis, but what I would like to see is more objective analysis, otherwise what you ultimately are doing is simply fostering the next crack up boom and the precipitous crash to follow. With all the fiat being artificially pumped into markets it behooves me to remind analysts of the effects that this fiat expansion has on ALL markets, including Bitcoin.

Now on the other hand, should all fiat currency fail completely simultaneously (market valuation of zero purchasing power, think Weimar Republic, Germany), you would see an exponential rise in the purchasing power of all real asset classes. This also means that the asset classes which the market determines as less durable and concomitantly less desirable, after the realization of any particular monetary unit's durability is obvious, (shake-out) these assets will eventually be valued at zero relative purchasing power in relation to any surviving monetary unit. What this means is BTC could end up rising in purchasing power to quite a lofty position. We are still fairly far from this type of scenario and related speculative reasoning as of yet. Nation states with their central banking schemes and so-called "legal tender" laws still hold a quasi-monopoly of the monetary unit of economic calculation in the minds of the great majority of larger players and, of course, the serfs in all markets.

Just a bit of constructive criticism.

Thank you.
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MRS Watanabe evets.wal
3 years ago
Hi evets.wal. I get what you mean but I did not base my analysis on economics but on charting. In accordance with the 'cup and handle' target the final high would be $960 should this pattern play out. However let me add there maybe new patterns that develop later and place a target at a much higher or lower price vs any fiat. Perhaps the issue you criticize is my semantics. Reg equilibrium price,semantics, still you could have a situation where prices are fixed by a socialist/communist government and then where is the equilibrium price? where is the market for that matter.

I am not trying to ramp Bit Coin as you imply but I cannot see there being a precipitous crash to follow after each ramp up because of the limited availability of Bit Coin, there is very little of it available and there is an apetite around the world for it specially in China for Gold bullion aswell.

What comes to my mind when you talk of Crack up Boom and precipitous crash to follow is the NASDAQ bubble, those stocks reaches absurd valuations etc, even pigs could fly at one point. That is totally different from Bit Coin, Using those words you are only talking of price action and not of fundamental values why did your economic reasoning not touch on that point?

When talking of the high price BTC could reach, I read at this article it could be as much as $1,000,000.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/11/Bitcoin.pdf
and does it need all Fiat to go to zero to reach that lofty hight?
I do not think so you can have capital and currency controls in place to keep a particular currency from going to zero, and outlaw Bit Coin and all other free markets.
You talk of legal tender laws, funny or maybe you did not know but Bit Coin is Legal Tender in Germany.
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AWatchingA
3 years ago
evets...I too understand what you are getting at, but your argument is about fundamental analysis, not the pure technical we are discussing here. We are reflecting on the predictive probabilities of a very strong price chart pattern (cup/handle). The price targets here are based solely on the presenting technicals. I too think BTC will go much higher than these targets in months and years to come.
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MRS Watanabe
3 years ago
this chart pattern's target $900+ looks more probable when viewed on a Log Scale, note resist at 1,61% fibo held for a long while now it should become support.
snapshot

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