A Quick Technical Lesson | $BTC #forex #elliottwave #bitcoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
7910 41 50
(this is a re-posting of a reply to traders in #bitcoin who asked that I explain the recent tweet - I decided to fully expand the explanation into a technical lesson)

Please, refer to the following link for the original analysis.forecasting - This page will remain a place for questions on technical analysis , if you do not mind.

- https://www.tradingview.com/v/qOHXHqQV/#tc133477

Lesson will follow in the text as a thread.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

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19 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
$BTCUSD stalls at 1-3 Line; Significant pushback could occur; Bulls remains intent on 260:

$BTC #bitcoin #bitstamp

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster

Is this pushback to 214.05 still expected by your model or are we "ready" to cross the 1-3 Line?

Kind regards
17 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
$BTCUSD #bitstamp sought support at 220.00 as forecast; 260.00 target remains in sight and in force:

$BTC #bitcoin

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
hey David, how do you see the 240 zone responding if this plays out? I'm looking at the head and shoulder type pattern and wondering if we break 240 that that would invalidate the pattern, and prove to be quite bullish perhaps
+1 Reply
Hello @Mr_Gareth,

Looking from the point of view of an inverted Head & Shoulder, price would need to rise to 260, recoil and rest at 235, and retest the 260 once again, with a deliberate break and continued advance above 260.

The DASHED arrows that I ascribe to the chart are probable price pathways. The speculative scenario just defined under a H&S pretext is already defined by these same dashed arrows, whereby price is expected to rise to 260, then rest at the upper belly of the geo along ts 2-4 Line, and then possibly rest, even attempt a loftier course above 260, which represents a lesser probability of attainment.

The height defined by Point-4 and Point-5' can easily be duplicated and stacked upon the level of Point-4 to approximate a geometric forecast IF indeed price where to turn bullish.

However, taking things one step at a time, price will need to ascend to 260 first, at which point a Kiss of Death (small parabola with nadir at Point-3, followed by a deeper parabola with nadir at Point-5') will likely rub Bulls the wrong way, which is the basis for a HIGH PROBABILITY push back IF and ONCE price rises to 260, which it is expected to do (HIGH PROB.).

The depth of pushback upon completion of the KoD is expected to be measured at a significant Fib retracement, although it is geometrically supported by the 2-4 Line, expectedly (MOD. Probability).

I would look at TWO components:
1 - Stopping Volume as price rests at the speculative 235 level, i.e.: as it eeks support along the 2-4 Line of the geo
2 - A Fib depth of 50%.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
thanks for your reply, sorry I wan't more specific, I was talking about this formation:

+1 Reply
Hello, @Mr_Gareth - Please, be sure to input the chart's URL into the icon within the writing window. This will bring the chart up and allow everyone else to quickly glance at it.

+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster

here you go :)
+1 Reply
Hello @Mr_Gareth - Yes, it has the morphology (shape) of a H&S, but lacks the topology (place) of a H&S. As drawn, it definitely has the right/left shoulders and the head, but this configuration is typically expected at the top of a price swing, since this pattern is a geometry associated with reversals.

Still, I see what you are seeing, but I would not consider this a H&S for trading purpose, based on the reason (unmet conditions) above - Here are images (Google query : "head and shoulder chart trade") that illustrate where an upswing preceded an upright H&S, or a downswing preceded an inverted H&S, prior to reversal.


+1 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
(Google results: https://www.google.com/search?q=head+and+shoulder+chart+trade&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=PEAyVd2cBNDvoASL-ICwAQ&ved=0CD8QsAQ&biw=1920&bih=977 )
+1 Reply
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