ninjabenja
Short

Harmonic Move pointing to a Potential Reversal Zone

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
202 3 0
These ABCD *type* moves have been working pretty well and I've identified three total qualifiers for a potential reversal zone (PRZ) at the level shown. Previous analysis as illustrated in previous charts, has indicated a $500 level (or lower) projection. Here we can see the D leg completion of this harmonic move just short of $480; landing just below the 1.618 AB leg extension and just above the previous structure support ... nearly the last of it's kind. Add to that, the fact that we're approaching our next Fibonacci time band and that's more than enough confirmation for me.



Note: this is not a true ABCD pattern , for many reasons. C didn't retrace to .618 or .786. There's not supposed to be a lower low below the B point, between B & C. I'm choosing to ignore these things and the brilliant strategist who dumped 3k coins at market. I will however thank them for filling 3 of my buy positions between 535 and 515. (Pro tip: average your positions.) I'm looking for a harmonic (retracement/extension) move here, not necessarily a pattern completion and 1.618% is being conservative. With the current C point not quite retracing 38.2%, would could see a deeper extension, but I'm not trying to pick the bottom- I'm trying to make bank. Don't expect price to drive straight to the target. Be patient, have a plan of action- whatever may happen.


Cheat sheet for retracements, and the likely extensions you could see them yeild:

Retracement ..... Extension (target)
38.2% ..... 161.8% and beyond
50.0% ..... 138.2 to 161.8%
61.8% ..... 121.4 to 138.2%
78.6% ..... 100% to 121.4
And... BOOM! XD
Reply
Great work again ninjabenja, while your TA is slightly biased (imo to the ABCD pattern), I still agree you are reading the trend correctly.

Depending on the news from Gox I think your pattern will see fruition, however any announcement from Gox could have a dramatic impact on the price action and makes me nervous.

Reply
Absolutely correct, on all counts. I gotta work with what I'm given :p but I try to seek added confirmation from other indicators as well.The word of warning about Gox was made evident on my previous chart : at the 2.0% Fib time frame, when we shot up and out rather than moving to target. We're only just now getting back to the previous trend channel.

...and that wasn't even real news - but the potential is real for fundamentals to sweep analysis. All the same, I stick to my analysis until the charts or someone more knowledgeable than myself makes a compelling case otherwise.
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