I think it will fall below $ 100. And afterwards. A new chapter begins.
This news is the worst for bitcoin: http://www.coindesk.com/most-mt-gox-bitcoins-were-gone-by-may-2013-report-claims/
your last 2 analysis didn't come even close, looks like you're better at analyzing high volume & high market cap commodities or forex markets... check DanV's analysis for clues.. as for long term bitcoin going to double digits is a real possibility as it's still on its way to discover its true price in correlation with true demand..