BTC - What to watch in the coming weeks (fib, channels, volume)

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
725 7 4
We're in a long term up trend, medium term up trend, short term down trend. Price has just bounced off of the .618 fib retracement line of the medium term up trend trend and on that day volume also peaked (highest in months) which often indicates a reversal, especially if the next test of support shows lower volume than the peak. So watch for another test of the $550 area and keep an eye on what volume does.

If support holds and volume is lower than the last peak, the selling pressure is reducing and the supply/demand balance may shift back to short term bullish .

If support fails (likely on increasing volume from the previous peak), we could enter a medium term down trend that could take BTC all the way down to $330.

Based on the rhythm of the current trend we may have a week or more before the support test happens. In the meanwhile, expect lowish volume and not too much daily range.

My plan: Look to increase long position @ $550 pending volume behavior at support area and confirm the trade with a higher low.
these fibs are wrong
DesertRain BryceWH
how would you draw them?
the 1 would be at 0. im guessing you've got yours from 50 or some other number?
DesertRain BryceWH
Derp. Yeah just drew it backwards. Thanks for pointing it out.
no probs. you've got the right idea though. if you use 0 to 1240, the 618 retracement is 472 - right where we bounced.
DesertRain BryceWH
Hmm. Just googled it. It looks to me like I did it right.

The 0 goes at the end of the rally, 1 at the beginning. Am I right? The 0 is at the 1240 in my pic (1237).
DesertRain DesertRain
Oh I see what you're saying. You are drawing the fib literally from $0 to $1240. We're both right, you're just on a different trading fractal than me.
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