But know when to use the right ones. A lot of people were calling for a bounce to higher levels a few hours ago. Why were the promising 4H indicators shown above wrong? The timing seemed right, since we just got through a massive bull run, and now we're down. You can see the extent of the runs on the 1H, but the pumps kept getting rejected. It's not unlike bitcoin to bust through that anyway. Many people point at this and call manipulation, notably. The 4H as highlighted shows promising signs on MACD, RSI, and probably a great deal of other indicators.
Why were they wrong?
They weren't on the right scale. The 4H indicators don't matter enough right now. Most of the traders here were just trying to make a quick day trade on a few bumps, or possibly a shoulder. They're 1H traders, not 4H traders. A lot of 4H traders are smart enough not to catch a falling knife. Indicators on the 4H or even 1D have a tenancy to lag to the point of not being useful. Assuming the 4H trends could save a falling knife from the 1H and 1D trends was essentially invalid. The 1H MACD is very bad, and moments before the dump it had a death cross (MACD crossover). Secondly, larger trends always override smaller trends. The 4H doesn't matter nearly as much as the 1D here. The 1D RSI can still go lower. A larger trend of fear has already sat in. The 1D RSI only hit the bottom once after a long bear market. Most likely, it will do so 2 or 3 times to consolidate rather than quickly overcoming all that bearish momentum, and people subconsciously expect this. Bearish sentiment and disappointment is still fresh in their minds, not fully healed. Most importantly, all players expect doubt inside all others due to collective and obvious suspicion. They're used to it, which nagged in the minds of the bulls run leading to a sudden but dignified collapse.
This is why I called a second bottom after this run before we saw 7K. I sold after the first pump, which was a mistake of truly underestimating the bulls. I didn't see 3 more pumps coming. Now, I'm in the green despite a collapsing market. I waited it out for a week and managed to make a reasonable profit. This seems like a long time, but I was playing it safe due to the limit of my knowledge. Right now, trading 1H, as we just saw, is suicide. If I had believed it even for a minute, I could have lost everything, feeding the people more patient than me to let the 1D play out.
Will we see a new market low?
I don't think people are gonna let it go much lower than the previous bottom. While people are collectively suspicious and fearful, greed has a wonderful way of convincing people. As we just saw by the bull run, people are willing to bandwagon the bulls despite 6 months of crashing. It only took one pump to cause 3 more pumps afterwards. It's extremely volatile. While collective fear made it collapse this time, it might actually save them the next time in reverse. I knew it would show indecision at first, like the last few times. I risked moving out of my long position to capitalize on that while I knew it was generally safe, and that's why I made a profit. A lot of people who rode the pump to the top still lost money overall. I'm still waiting for the 1D RSI to play out. If I'm wrong, then I can still break even, but if I'm right then I make money. I think it's just gonna take one massive bull flag like the last few bull markets we had once it does get going though. People are tired of waiting. The end of the year is coming, after all. Just my thoughts.
Happy trading
Why were they wrong?
They weren't on the right scale. The 4H indicators don't matter enough right now. Most of the traders here were just trying to make a quick day trade on a few bumps, or possibly a shoulder. They're 1H traders, not 4H traders. A lot of 4H traders are smart enough not to catch a falling knife. Indicators on the 4H or even 1D have a tenancy to lag to the point of not being useful. Assuming the 4H trends could save a falling knife from the 1H and 1D trends was essentially invalid. The 1H MACD is very bad, and moments before the dump it had a death cross (MACD crossover). Secondly, larger trends always override smaller trends. The 4H doesn't matter nearly as much as the 1D here. The 1D RSI can still go lower. A larger trend of fear has already sat in. The 1D RSI only hit the bottom once after a long bear market. Most likely, it will do so 2 or 3 times to consolidate rather than quickly overcoming all that bearish momentum, and people subconsciously expect this. Bearish sentiment and disappointment is still fresh in their minds, not fully healed. Most importantly, all players expect doubt inside all others due to collective and obvious suspicion. They're used to it, which nagged in the minds of the bulls run leading to a sudden but dignified collapse.
This is why I called a second bottom after this run before we saw 7K. I sold after the first pump, which was a mistake of truly underestimating the bulls. I didn't see 3 more pumps coming. Now, I'm in the green despite a collapsing market. I waited it out for a week and managed to make a reasonable profit. This seems like a long time, but I was playing it safe due to the limit of my knowledge. Right now, trading 1H, as we just saw, is suicide. If I had believed it even for a minute, I could have lost everything, feeding the people more patient than me to let the 1D play out.
Will we see a new market low?
I don't think people are gonna let it go much lower than the previous bottom. While people are collectively suspicious and fearful, greed has a wonderful way of convincing people. As we just saw by the bull run, people are willing to bandwagon the bulls despite 6 months of crashing. It only took one pump to cause 3 more pumps afterwards. It's extremely volatile. While collective fear made it collapse this time, it might actually save them the next time in reverse. I knew it would show indecision at first, like the last few times. I risked moving out of my long position to capitalize on that while I knew it was generally safe, and that's why I made a profit. A lot of people who rode the pump to the top still lost money overall. I'm still waiting for the 1D RSI to play out. If I'm wrong, then I can still break even, but if I'm right then I make money. I think it's just gonna take one massive bull flag like the last few bull markets we had once it does get going though. People are tired of waiting. The end of the year is coming, after all. Just my thoughts.
Happy trading