If you are familiar with this image, you'll understand very well that market crash cycles can be found in every corner of the market. With the only similarity between all markets being the human beings behind the money (price), it would be sensible to think that the psychology & emotions behind these humans play a pivotal role in understanding markets and trading.
If we can break this market structure down into 4 easy-to-understand parts, we would come up with something like this:
Relating this to Bitcoin , it seems like the year long accumulation period is over, as $BTCUSD broke above major resistance $300 in October 2015. Based on my interpretation of the market crash cycle, we have now moved into the launchpad phase with our current price action raging between $294 and $502.
If Bitcoin continues to be the leading blockchain network, it should become widely regarded and generally accepted as the base currency of other cryptocurrencies. In the shorter term, the bitcoin halving happening in Q3 2016 will set the stage for a pump, and for that to happen, MMs must maintain the uptrend structure formed since October 2015. Any breaks below structure will either delay the pump, or lead to another downtrend.
Upside targets are $710, $995, and $1163.
Downside is $341, $280, $220, $160.