Did wave 3 btc just begin?

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
117 4 1
I believe that the 5 minute bars just painted a 5 wave up. If so, wave 3 may have just begun. This might get exciting...
are you serious ? 5 min bar, atm bitcoin have less that one trade per minute so if you are lucky each bar have 3 or 4 trades ......
That is fair... This is part science, part art, as you know.
I have lost money in the past by using short term charts (like this one) to make longer term trades, so your point is well taken.

OTOH, by definition, all impulse waves MUST begin with a 5 wave move in the smallest time frames. So, it makes eminent sense to me to note the appearance of a 5 wave structure after a clear corrective wave. Whether or not this wave will grow into the seed of a larger impulse wave 3 remains to be seen.

When/if we see a move below 98.25 we will know for certain that this was NOT that seed. In the meantime, imo, it would be a mistake to ignore the message this 5 wave structure might, perhaps, be sending.

So far, as of this moment, the magic number 98.25 has not been broken. I would not make a large commitment based on this info, but I would be VERY careful about being short. But, to each his own of course.
Clearly, it is looking increasingly obvious that this was not the start of a wave 3. There is nothing that feels impulsive about this market.
I am now taking another look at my alternate count. In that count, we are still only halfway through wave 5 DOWN, to end the 9 week bear market.
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