johnrfraser
Short

Can anyone truly be Long on BTC?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
235 9 0
Can anyone truly be Long on BTC?

I notice that over 13million of the maximum 21million bitcoins have already be mined.
Sure, this is anti inflationary and mining gets harder and BTC value increases per the model.

The heyday of mining has been and gone though. Hardware advances meant that way too many coins have been mined way too early.
With diminishing coins, harder hash rates, more expensive gear and diminishing returns, mining is going to become less and less worthwhile and less and less popular. Mining will soon only be profitable to larger and larger players, for narrower and narrower margins.

Mining as I see it, is the flaw as BTC goes forward. All transactions require the mining network to be up, running and healthy in order to even exist.

For the currency revolution of the future, a network doomed to become less widespread, a whole load slower, and against a theoretical backdrop of mass adoption, it will fall to pieces.

It already takes over an hour to complete a bitcoin transaction. So this is by no means a usable method of purchasing anything other than v high value commodities that take time to exchange, like real estate or businesses for instance.
So with growing traffic and lower network availability, an hour is probably the best we can ever expect!

A currency that requires such a network in order to exist is going to fail.
Only a network built on the transactions themselves could ever sustain itself. Because the only thing that will increase with mass adaption is the number of transactions...so the network has to be sustained by transactions, not by mining, which is going to be less worthwhile, less profitable and done by fewer and fewer people.

Any thoughts?
ChartArt
2 years ago
You have a point. Regarding the time to complete a Bitcoin transaction - there are already projects in development to make it much quicker for real world payments. I had found one project like four or five months ago, but I don't remember the name of it. Somehow it possible that although a Bitcoin confirmation takes 10 minutes (block time) it's possible to confirm it faster - don't ask me how.
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johnrfraser ChartArt
2 years ago
Thanks ChartArt. So I understand this correctly? Only mining sustains confirmations. There's no inherent 'contribution' to the network by actually making a transaction is there?
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Lechango PRO
2 years ago
I don't feel confirmation time is as big of a deal as you make it out to be. For high value transactions it is a good thing, for smaller values it still seems to be working fine, when paying with Bitpay it is almost instant, obviously they are taking the risk of 0 confirmation transactions, and obviously they aren't having issues with double spends or they would be out of business.

Also, as the network grows confirmation time is not increasing. You can see this here: https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time . You will notice that the confirmation time was substantially higher during the last bubble, but then again the network was not even half as powerful then.

In my opinion the price has to correct eventually to agree with the miners. Right now miners are hurting, if they are selling to cover costs they are probably barely breaking even right now at best. However, the hash rate is not slowing down, people are still pouring loads into mining hardware. Will the price continue to go down and the miners give up and the network implodes on itself? Or will the price catch up so the miners can profit again? I'd bet the latter.
+1 Reply
johnrfraser Lechango
2 years ago
Thanks Lechango. So the model in your opinion works so long as there's mass adoption and price increases exponentially as a result? So if price doesn't hike, the miners bail and the network collapses eventually?
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Lechango PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
Yes, now I don't think the network will completely collapse, the few miners that stick around will benefit from decreased difficulty eventually, but if that ends up happening the price is going back to double or single digits, however the miners may still be profitable at this price point. Even if that happens there's still a good possibility there could be a new wave of adoption could lead to another surge in hash rate. Currently we have yet to see a drop in hash-rate, when/if that ever happens it's probably a good sign to get out for a while.
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frisby
2 years ago
Wow... you obviously don't get the idea of mining and confirmations. And these thoughts that could exist for years are reason for you to create bearish chart? Really?
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johnrfraser frisby
2 years ago
No. You just have to post a chart to make a post...and it happens to be what I have going at the moment.
What don't I understand about confirmations? Do they require a substantial network of miners or not?
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frisby johnrfraser
2 years ago
You should wrote that your thoughts have nothing with the chart.

Mining is actually securing the network and enables the system to actually works without centralised entity. And yes, also if CC provider's servers go down, service is not funcational (1, 2, 3... X datacenters). For Bitcoin to go down, Internet would need to stop working somehow for it to not work...

Transactions are executed in seconds not in one hour. But you need approx. one hour if you want fully confirmed transaction. Do you check for every dollar bill you receive if it is not fake? Not, just for larger ones (talking about merchants). But system would need to get used to it that 1 confirmation is enought for small payments (even 0 confirmations...). And the services will be developed around this to improve that. So, I cannot see the point about transaction speed.

Regarding the size of the mining system, this is classic natural process and will fit the needs and oportunities, in general the bigger it is the safer is the network.
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johnrfraser
2 years ago
PS Apologies for any confusion. The chart is not a representation of the text...I wanted to raise the question and needed to post a chart in order to do so. This is just my current 1D BFX chart. Thanks a lot.
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