2023 Surf Watch: BTC for INDEX:BTCUSD by WJ.Y

BTCUSD : 30666

What
1. This is a surf watching thread of BTC
2. It acts as a diary or reference of key technical and fundamental events on BTC
3. It will also note key predictions, forecasts and opinions

Why
1. It is easy to get caught up by secondary waves and lose sight of the primary swell
2. It is important to remember how wrong predictions by famous people have been
3. and how much we panicked, either FUD or FOMO when we read those predictions
4. Crypto and BTC is susceptible to this because it is speculative and unregulated

Comment:

News
1. Fidelity’s Renewed Bid for a Spot Bitcoin ETF

Analysis:
1. Current BTC buzz is still on spot BTC ETF
2. Expecting this to die down when people realize it is not going to happen as soon as they expect
3. Generally it should be unlikely for a listing to happen until 2024

Comment:

BTC : $30426

News:
1. BTC Spot ETFs Rejected by SEC; Applications Lack Clarity

Commentary:
1. This news caused a drop from 31k to sub 30k before regaining to 30.4k now. The takeaway here is that SEC wanted more details on the "survelliance sharing agreement". In my opinion, this is merely one of many infinitely long questions SEC will be asking. My position is the same, that there will be NO spot BTC in the near future. However, the market is not giving up hope yet.

Comment:

BTC : $30419

News:
1. Here's When Bitcoin Might Hit $250,000, According to Tim Draper

Commentary:
1. Tim predicted $250k BTC by 2022, and has now pushed this to 2025. Imagine anyone who had been taken in by his sweet words then. Remember he bought 30,000 BTC at $632 in 2014. He's one lucky fuck, but don't assume he will be a lucky fuck again, nor you, by following him.

Lessons:
1. Tim Draper predicts bitcoin will reach $250,000 next year despite FTX collapse: ‘The dam is about to break’
PUBLISHED MON, DEC 5 2022 4:56 AM EST

2. Investor Tim Draper Is “100% Sure” Bitcoin Will Reach $250,000 By 2024
Draper has extended his prediction $250,000 bitcoin by six months due to the collapse of FTX and unfavorable macroeconomic factors.

Comment:

BTC : $30421

News:
1. Peter Brandt suggests investors long Bitcoin as BTC price is likely to hit $40,000. Ethereum price soars over 10% after the Shapella upgrade. April 14, 2023

Lessons:
1. Remember that just as "legendary" traders like Tim Draper spout nonsense like $250k BTC by 2022, so even far lower predictions by "legendary" Peter Brandt of $40k can't be met

2. The only thing legendary about these traders which FOMO/FUD fake crypto news websites and tweeters is their legendary ability to be ALWAYS WRONG.

3. Read only news, but never read crypto opinions. Do your own research and develop your own trading plan. Ignore comments on your ideas on tradingview.

Comment:

BTC : $31150

News:
1. Bitcoin Expert Predicts Q3, Q4 Crypto Bull Run Timeline, But There’s A Catch

1a. Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT @crypto_birb
It’s just unreasonable to see all the facts & data and still deny #Bitcoin bull market. Over $31,400, however, the bears will have no argument left to prove their delusion. After slow summer, I’d expect fireworks in Q4.

Lessons:
1. Would you believe someone who is an influencer with a big beard (nothing against beards but is it there for a reason) makes him a wiser soothsayer?
2. Honestly if anyone was so good, he would be a billionaire easily, and if he were a billionaire, he would be here for kicks like Tim Draper
3. The proof is always in the pudding so lets see back (which he will of course be proven wrong yet again), and we always give these people another listening chance.

Comment:

BTC : $31010

News:
1. In a recent open letter addressed to Barry Silbert, the CEO of Digital Currency Group (DCG), Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the popular cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, has reignited the ongoing saga surrounding the alleged fraudulent behavior of DCG and its subsidiary, Genesis. With over $1.2 billion worth of assets trapped in Genesis, Winklevoss represents 232,000 Earn users who have been severely affected by the actions of DCG.
In a strongly worded letter, Winklevoss accuses Silbert and his company of fostering a culture of lies, deceit, and financial misconduct.

Lessons:
1. The bear market is still ongoing for a few more months and this will bring out even more in-fighting
2. In the end, no one is to be trusted except to fight for his/her own interests
3. Prove in point - DCG is the owner of Greyscale Investment that holds Greyscale BTC trust. Its just hilarious.

Comment:

BTC : $30490

Technicals:
1. MACD printing first negative since pump from

25K to

31K

News:
1. No major news

Lessons:
1.

BTC has been fluctuating like a stablecoin between $29 and $31
2. This will be a slow grind downwards to end of year

Comment:

BTC : $30576

Technicals:
1. Dead as the dead sea

News:
1. Bitcoin ETF in the US Will Probably Happen According to Novogratz. Galaxy Digital’s attempt to introduce a BTC ETF has turned to be a “long and frustrating path,” he added.

2. Silk Road–Linked Bitcoin Worth $300M Moved by U.S. Government: On-Chain Data. The U.S. government previously sold 9,861 bitcoin for $216 million in March.

Thoughts:
1. I want to observe BTC pressure if US govt sells its BTC which will match the

25K drop to $20k on 9 March 2023

Comment:

BTC : $29793

Technicals:
1. Price action is weak and heavy

Thoughts:
1. I feel that without any impetus, and with everyone going on summer hols, price action will be left for the wolves.

Comment:

BTC : $28910

Technicals:
1. We are 5 days from printing the first negative 1wk MACD
2. We are well into moving below 0 on 1d MACD

Thoughts:
1. Don't see any good impetus in the horizon, I believe we need another 6 months to April when someone starts getting the excitement going that the halving is here.
2. I am still looking at a dip down to around $20k between now and April 2024

Trade closed manually:

ideas all over space and time makes it confusing for myself. consolidating everything into a single "idea-blog" style format. closing this idea off.