Linear regression over 270 days

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
418 3 5
Doing a linear regression over the past 270 days produces this nice trend channel.

Looking at the pattern in this channel in October 2014, I feel we may see similar behavior. We have a break from the middle regression line and then we form a wedgie/triangle shape which breaks down and bounces on top of the regression line. The current wedge shape is pinching and the MACD signal line seems to be flattening out ready to cross downward. From the crossover forwards I foresee downward movement until we hit resistance at 165, however there are some "psychological supports" to grind on before getting there (like $200).

*edit 26th of Feb* If I were stronger willed I would've held my position (sold ~232) but I bought back in at ~250. I'm curious to see if there's enough will to break out of the channel, it might be time to sell again if it does. Probably just under 270, if I hit that sell I'll at least be playing a zero sum game again :| -- again as I keep looking, if we get past 264 we might be starting a new longer term trend upwards. So many possibilities.
great analysis. an eventual double bottom at 165 seems likely. question then becomes...are we out of the bear cycle woods by april/may...or are we destined for lower? suppose we'll see.
+1 Reply
MindsForge kenzboard
Thanks. It's a mystery, but I would like to see a slow break out of that channel before I'd start thinking we're out of the woods fingers crossed :)
panic bought back in at 250, doing that is probably wrong, but I'll see in the morning :|
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