BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
227 4 3
Was curious what happened the last time both the one day stochastic and moving average was around these same levels.
Parameters: stochastic < 1, Moving average < 3, downward parallel standard (ie no hard impulse moves).

On bitfinex going back 2 years, theres around ~18 points this has occurred

Of these

18 of them had 5 day of selling with increased momentum.
16 of them closed a rejection style bottom wick.
14 of them had greater then a 25 dollar move up before local top was established
6 had greater then a 50 dollar move before top was established
5 had greater then an 80 dollar move before top was established.

2 were actually at the top of a range and went down another 40-80 bucks. (SCARY!)

what about china. china matters

China matches this pretty closely with about 26 vs 18. But i explain this a way with stop run and fomo selling.

(this is not an attempt to call bottom, just checking out past history when similar events occurred)
Trade active: i had two sets of bids setup. first have been filled at 390.58

1 month later, this chart is still good. just solidly broke the 420 resistance

22 days later this chart is still good. heres an update.. we just made new local highs. next probable test and resistance area is 436 ish.

still long. looks like the trendline was tested a bit and lot of low vol buying for the last couple days. price is on the move right now across all exchanges, this maybe because the new quarterly contracts rolls on today

updated chart. so far this 1d candle is following the pattern. 4hr stoch trying to confirm out of oversold territory on finex and already has in china.

i decided to look at the 5min level of the last few qualifying daily candles. Before putting in the low, there was a test sell off. The next 1-4 hourly candles were bought up but very weak buy volume/low resistance. Then the next push occured, putting in the low which was followed by 'real' buy volume. (or more likely a combination of big buys and shorts closing)

disclosure - i setup two sets of bids based on this chart, the first one has been hit. i may or may not hold it due to real life happenings.
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