During the past two bubbles has triple bottomed before beginning a subsequent rally. If this pattern repeats for a third time we will spike down to 230s before attempting a new rally.
By bouncing up from this level , we would still be above the downtrend line (red) thus keeping in an overall territory.
Looking at the past two bubbles a high volume triple bottom bounce from the would secure 230s as the absolute bottom making it an excellent buy signal.
You don't typically see a trend-line get so much reaction to it from the one side without it being tested at least once (usually several times) from the other side. So, I definitely think that your scenario here is possible and likely, according to market history data, PROBABLE (though I can't say this for sure).