For the past 36 hours, price on has been moving on a very narrow range, with an approximate average price value of $386.
Furthermore, since the top on the 14th of October, up to today, price has been forming a symmetrical . This is usually a sign of continuation. Therefore, a closer look is required.
On the long side: Price must move out of the compressing $385-$388 zone that is between the 100MA support and 200MA resistance. If it finally decides to break to the upside, then $389 must be taken out with conviction. However, it must then pierce through the first resistance target, which is the 100MA Upper BB at $394.45. A break above this level will increase the odds for revisiting the 200MA Upper BB resistance at $405.
On the short side: A break below $381 will possibly lead price to test the 100MA Lower BB at $377. This is the first lower target and if it doesn’t hold, price may try to test the 200MA Lower BB at $372 or even lower.
Overall: Price has been stagnant. has been offering positive support. is on positive momentum, although, the recent cross must fail in order to support a rally. are compressing. is decreasing, as it should before any breakout.
Long: On a strong break above $389 – Max Price Target $405 | Probability: 39%
Neutral: Price Range $382-$388 | Probability: 34%
Short: On a strong break below $381 – Lower Price Target $372 | Probability: 27%
Our Stance: Waiting for a breakout to either direction.
Making long term assessments like this, never plays out well. No one knows where price will be today, tomorrow or even in the next hour.
One month is 30days away. So many things may change in between. We can spend hours drawing dozens of charts "thinking and predicting" where price shall be next month, next week, etc. and everyone could be right, until proven wrong.
Price is the only common denominator. Following it one step at a time, with clean setups, is a reasonable approach. Every outcome has its probabilities.
Therefore, answering your question, "if" price triggers the near term long setup and manages to reach $405, then the models should be re evaluated for the next possible targets.