matthew.khama
Short

Bitcoin: A move Below $150 Expected Soon

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
168 5 3
The chart shows the outlook I have for bitcoin . I still maintain that a move below $150 is necessary to complete the correction which started at the >$1000 high. The recent move that bitcoin made to $500 must have fooled alot of people. As shown in this chart it was a (B) wave. Elliott Wave Principle describes B waves as phonies. Text: "B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both).....If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market", chances are it's a B wave. " . This is precisely what happened. People got trapped into thinking we have a new bull market in bitcoin , price rose to above $500 only to fall back below $400 in a matter of hours. This is a perfect lession in Elliott waves . We know that 5-wave             moves determine the direction of the market. Therefore for us to proclaim that the bull market in bitcoin has resumed, we MUST get a five wave move upwards since a low. Looking at the chart in the low area marked (A) at about $150 and the move up to $500 it is clearly corrective (and thus the reason I have marked it W X Y). Bitcoin is going to provide a nice opportunity to go long soon. In fact if you look at the blue horizontal line displaying $85.14 and then you look to the left of the chart, you will notice two converging trendlines . That is a triangle and is the area of the previous 4th wave when bitcoin was rising to above $1000. I expect bitcoin to bottom at about $85 dollars and that will be your opportunity to buy aggressively.
Comment: Bitcoin is falling impulsively as expected.
I'm in alignment that I think this is a corrective rally but I think with this count wave disproportionately larger. I agree with your targets.
+1 Reply
Here's the problem with elliot waves, it works in retrospect.

Other than that, it works to some degree of high probability to predict a short-term target, probably usually just by chance, but I'm sure there is some validity to the techniques.

Why did I reach this conclusion? Well, for one, I've never seen two people with matching counts. It's just too subjective.

Anyway, that's my take.
+1 Reply
matthew.khama JamesBrown
Well @JamesBrown Elliott Waves have been known to be the best predictor of market moves by those who follow it rigorously. There are people who claim to be using Elliott Waves but when you check their wave counts you find that they have broken either some rules or they have not followed some guideline. These people give Elliotticians a bad name.

It takes time to study and apply Elliott successfully. Some people give up in the process and make claims that the method does not work. It will not work if you don't put in the required effort to thoroughly understand it. Now, like all methods of analysis, an Elliott wave prediction is probabilistic meaning you are not 'guaranteed' of the outcome. But we believe it is the best there is.
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blackswan matthew.khama
i think we won't be seeing that kind of price unless entire blockchain is compromised somehow or we get some real bad news causing serious panic selling.. there is just way too much buying strength in the 200s area alone so market movers aren't stupid to dump to practically give away their coins at double digits.. we will be sideways in 300s from now and then slowly climb to 500s.. the real peak is probably around 800 or may be more.. interesting days ahead..
+1 Reply
JamesBrown PRO matthew.khama
Hmm. What you say is a possibility, I suppose.

The comment about "best predictor of market moves", however, I must question.

I, personally, like to look for simplicity in the systems of trade/ predicted market movements that I develop for my own use and, over the years, have came up with some very simple one's, using a couple of MA channels, the use of fibs extension tools, and a single price indicator, making trades on that system with over 66% success rates on those trades (for going on 100+ trades on 4 hour time frame) and P/L ratios of 2.0 and better. I've had better than 75% success rate on a simple "guppy MA" set-up that waits for an engulfing candle (for over 200 trades on 15 min time frame) with P/L ratios of 1.5 or better.

My feeling is that the market is constantly changing, so no one system will always remain the best at predicting future market behavior. Thus, I spend most of my time "calibrating" to the market based off of patterns that I can see playing out more recently on the various time frames and also calibrating my systems to get the best success rate and P/L ratio set-ups for specific trade vehicles (my system for trading SPY is different than that which I use to trade BTCUSD, for example).

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