MACD Telling Us Something?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The current short term trend remains bearish until we can get above 520. The mid-term trend is still bullish until 356. I really do not think that we will break down below the mid trend target unless there is a good reason to do so. What is for sure is that there is going to be some nice swings that you can capture some $ if you can time them right and follow their trend. If it crawls slowly up it likely will continue to do so. Same for if it is going down. I would be cautious of going full 10x leverage long right now since nothing has really confirmed an uptrend.

Now looking at this chart it is quite interesting. So, basically what we had in May is what I’d like to call a technical rally. Meaning there were only technical indicators and trends that were broken. The sentiment had been rather pessimistic and that is when I had bought in myself around ~450. The TA was all positive, yet there was nothing besides that driving it. There wasn’t A) good news B) big influx of new investors C) rumors or D) sudden economic meltdowns. To sum it up, there just wasn’t anything besides good TA that drove us up. We couldn’t continue on when everyone was putting on their space helmets. When the sentiment becomes like that it is best to get out unless you see one of those 4. If there had been some much stronger sentiment and good bullish signs we may have gone higher, but it was too little too late.

The final thing I’ll quickly touch upon is the similarity in price between April 2013 and today’s rally of 450 to 680. They have the exact same height, based upon price, as the April 2013 bubble. This is unusual since we have been so use to extreme logarithmic rallies. We cannot rule out the possibility that this was not a rally. 240 price rises are big enough to look at, even in Bitcoin terms. So does this mean we will not see a bubble for a long time? I am not certain on that, but I do think we won’t be seeing 1000+ in the next month.

• StochRSI – Has been oversold during this entire time. It is just now going up higher into buy territory. I don’t think it will be able to even reach neutral at this point, so it is still a bear market.
Volume – Some of the highest volumes since the initial rally in May. What we need now is a stop in all the volume and see where that takes us.
MACDMACD has had some interesting patterns over the course of this period. If you look at the ones I colored you can see how similar they are. So does this mean we are going sideways? I cannot fully answer that and this time it will be much different. MACD remaining below 0 is not a good sign for the moon watchers.
• DC – Currently has support of 442 and a high of 607. Telling me that there is room to go back up still. Unless the markets start to cool down in which case DC channels will start to close the gap even further.

Bull Target: $535
Bear: 440

Interested in more? Check out my blog post:


I don't think we are going to see 1000+ in the next month, but I see the potential that we might see 1000+ in 2014 again.
+2 Reply
ItisCalvin ChartArt
I agree, "do think won’t be seeing 1000+" was my stance. Which I think it will be a long time before we start to see 1000+. There is some promising fronts. Like you mentioned Circle could help bring us more mainstream.

People need a way to dumbly transfer Bitcoin. I've been around some not that much older people and teaching them anything on the computer can be a struggle. I guess we don't need everyone to be on board at once. The older generation will be the laggards. They don't need to make massive profits. They have their social security and $100k retirement accounts.
+1 Reply
At it boy. Things I agree with, thing I don't. But I like it nonetheless ty
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