Descending Triangle in the Making Bitstamp BTC/USD 1HR

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Since the 16th of October, price has been constantly making lower highs and lower lows.

In the afternoon of the same day, it has been evident that the formation had established itself as a Descending Triangle , by testing the same low area $371 over and over again, which also happens to be the Lower 100MA BB support.

This price action has been accompanied by a flat RSI , collapsing buying volume and a weakening MACD (at the time of writing). Moreover, stochastic has reversed sharply.

On the long side: RSI must show signs of strength in order to assist upward price movement. On a strong break above the Upper 20MA BB at $385 the bullish case will stay intact, and the odds will increase for a retest of the Upper 200MA BB currently at $410.

On the short side: A strong break below $371 will possibly accelerate selling pressure to test the lower 200MA BB at $347.

Overall: The weakening picture previously mentioned is still vivid. With such a low buying volume , some action has to give soon.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above $385 – Price Target $410 | Probability: 25%
Neutral: Price Range $372-$384 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a break below $371 - Price Target $347 | Probability: 35%

Our Stance: Have reduced long exposure. Will reduce more if $371 is broken with conviction.
Nice bullish breakout out of your channel:

I'm now bullish again:
MoonTrader ChartArt
What do you make of this dying volume?
ChartArt MoonTrader
Volume is always a lagging indicator. First comes the price, then the volume.
+1 Reply
Quite accurate! Price is always the common denominator.
Just escaped the channel.
It has indeed, triggering the long probability. Being in the trade for a quick profit, with a stop at break even.
You could see it that way indeed, but I think 14 $ in less than 1 day per BTC isn't that much...
Watch if we stay above 400$ for 1,5 day's than 500 will be the target at least!
Maybe you could takt a look @ my chart :)
Hi Maddie and thank you for your input.

It depends on how you trade every setup. For us a day trade of $14+ is quite good and it has played pretty well. We are not talking about trading 1 coin here ;). Trigger point at $385 was clean.

With regards to your chart, we can honestly assume that it is a bit speculative. It was issued 5 days ago, +1.5 of waiting, that is 3.5 days ago that your outcome should have played out. We are already on the 19th and time is overextended.

It is useful to provide entry and exit points to your strategy. For example, what point shall trigger a solid rally to "at least $500" and on what basis? Will this rally be supported by the internal indicators? Is momentum healthy? Moreover, on your calculations you have to take into account that Head and shoulders bottoms have an average performance rank of 7 out of 23 and a throwback rate of 45%.
The timescale is to shore for this type of pattern....
+1 Reply
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