Descending Triangle in the Making Bitstamp BTC/USD 1HR
Since the 16th of October, price has been constantly making lower highs and lower lows.
In the afternoon of the same day, it has been evident that the formation had established itself as a Descending Triangle, by testing the same low area $371 over and over again, which also happens to be the Lower 100MA BB support.
This price action has been accompanied by a flat RSI, collapsing buying volume and a weakening MACD (at the time of writing). Moreover, stochastic has reversed sharply.
On the long side: RSI must show signs of strength in order to assist upward price movement. On a strong break above the Upper 20MA BB at $385 the bullish case will stay intact, and the odds will increase for a retest of the Upper 200MA BB currently at $410.
On the short side: A strong break below $371 will possibly accelerate selling pressure to test the lower 200MA BB at $347.
Overall: The weakening picture previously mentioned is still vivid. With such a low buying volume, some action has to give soon.
Outcome Probabilities:
Long: On a strong break above $385 – Price Target $410 | Probability: 25%
Neutral: Price Range $372-$384 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a break below $371 - Price Target $347 | Probability: 35%
Our Stance: Have reduced long exposure. Will reduce more if $371 is broken with conviction.
In the afternoon of the same day, it has been evident that the formation had established itself as a Descending Triangle, by testing the same low area $371 over and over again, which also happens to be the Lower 100MA BB support.
This price action has been accompanied by a flat RSI, collapsing buying volume and a weakening MACD (at the time of writing). Moreover, stochastic has reversed sharply.
On the long side: RSI must show signs of strength in order to assist upward price movement. On a strong break above the Upper 20MA BB at $385 the bullish case will stay intact, and the odds will increase for a retest of the Upper 200MA BB currently at $410.
On the short side: A strong break below $371 will possibly accelerate selling pressure to test the lower 200MA BB at $347.
Overall: The weakening picture previously mentioned is still vivid. With such a low buying volume, some action has to give soon.
Outcome Probabilities:
Long: On a strong break above $385 – Price Target $410 | Probability: 25%
Neutral: Price Range $372-$384 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a break below $371 - Price Target $347 | Probability: 35%
Our Stance: Have reduced long exposure. Will reduce more if $371 is broken with conviction.