AynCzubas

Beware of Betting on Bitcoin Rally Prematurely

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
175 3 0
The Bitcoin price is going parabolic again. Beware of jumping on this train too quickly.

Why?

It looks like a triangle is forming within the decline from the the all-time high in 2013. The triangle would need to be a 4th wave, assuming the all-time high at $1163 was a 3rd wave, and it would indeed portend a thrust higher at its end. However, a 4th wave may not end below the peak of the 1st wave. The 1st wave's peak was $259.34 in 2013.

It is quite likely that this rally is wave "b" of the triangle. It seems to be targeting a height of about $540 itself. That is right at the 0.382 retracement of the total decline from 2013. I suspect the next wave down will be wave "c" and that might end above the 1st wave. Wave "d" should end below "b" and the final "e" should end above wave "c", before the true upward rally begins.
This is really, really disproportionate, in time and price, don't you think?
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AynCzubas IvanLabrie
a year ago
The mania wave was extremely disproportionate to the 1st wave. The decline has taken relatively forever. Maybe it's a factor of Bitcoin's novelty as a traded market. Anyway, I'll just count the waves as they appear.
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IvanLabrie PRO AynCzubas
a year ago
I see, yes, I really don't know if we can apply the rules directly here, probably not.
Let's see how it goes.
Cheers!
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