BTC Short Squeeze Target

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
2585 38
There is a short squeeze building on Bitfinex that will ultimately send price above 1200.

There are nearly 21k BTCUSD shorts on Bitfinex, ample in size to produce a large push into the 1200's.

Also of note is the difference in cost to hold longs vs shorts with long margin rates very attractive at these levels with shorts not so much.

The most notable level to watch this unfold is price over-taking the boxed area in the chart between 1030/1050.

If and when this level gives price should bounce off of 1080/1090 back to 1050 and only on confirmation of 1050 becoming support will this trigger a move into 1200.

I am long from 950/960 as per my last chart and will only close my longs if 1030/1050 build a reversal pattern and is unable to overtake these levels on volume .

Again the larger push is triggered on a break above 1050 and then this price level seeing support.

Good Luck

Comment: Covered %50 of my long above 1040 just shy of my 1050 mark.

If we see a pullback here 1020 needs to hold for more up very important level or a large break higher on volume will suffice.

The upper box look to be defended by the remaining bears bottom box hold for more up.

Comment: The reason I'm not putting a lot of emphasis on the very top level is because stops will be sitting up there.

From a risk reward perspective there will be new participants looking to short below but as close to the top level as possible and also shorts already open looking to add and defend these levels to average down their positions or simply defend their stops.

Either way resistance will pile in before the top so taking 1050 and holding it shows the bears lack the muscle to defend and the bulls will in all likelihood overtake the high.

Comment: For those reading the bottom comments section I wrote about this potential price fractal and why 1050 is so important and also why I took 50% profit.

Wait ans see mode here could go either way.

Comment: Quick update traders, levels don't get easier then this pretty straight forward trading here.

Still holding 50% from 950/960

Comment: There is a lot of fib confluence between 1089 and 1100. If we take 1100 then 1130 comes fast and easy otherwise it's all about holding 1070 so expect some chop between 1070 and 1100.
Comment: 1130 gets hit and is the first key step on our way to 1200 next up is 1170/1180.

1130 shouldn't see too many issue but never the less could chop around this level for awhile.
Comment: I have begun to scale out my position as I will be taking some time off to enjoy profits from the last 5 successful charts.

I have cashed out 3/4 of my trade with the last 1/4 saved for 1175.

Trade closed: target reached: Target hit, chart completed trade closed manually.
Comment: Thanks for following everyone, that's me taking a break now good luck with your trading.

Nailed 5 back to back successful Bitcoin charts been a good run take care.

Chapeau! Looking forward to have you back! How long is your well-earned break?
It seems you are not too convinced anymore that 1200+ will be hit, or am I getting you wrong?
BTCMarket bysteven
@bysteven, I think you're getting me wrong, I have a flight booked to the Maldives I intend to catch and don't want any distractions while I'm there including thinking about any open positions.

Hope this clarifies.

bysteven BTCMarket
@BTCMarket, enjoy your vacation, women, cigars and cocktails!
well goodjob buddy,i think same with you,i just close my 80% in 1150 and still waiting what will happen,look foward for this week is too scary for me, how long you will take rest/time off,i will miss your chart project
Your still think 1200+ is valid?
BTCMarket bysteven
@bysteven, It's going to get very interesting from 1170/1180 the problem here is market dynamics such as low margin longs and the yet to close 13k worth of shorts.

If you're in from a good price I would absolutely be booking some profits on the way up, we have 1130 first resistance then 1170/1180.

If we get a blowout rally then I can't see this going higher than say 1290's it's very difficult to call an absolute top right now but 1200/1230 is still very much on the table but keep a close watch on 1170/1180 big area.

bysteven BTCMarket
@BTCMarket, awesome thanks! 1130 taken already. After the new ATH, correction down to 900ish, what's your guess? Down to 750ish would still be within the long-term upwards trend.
BTCMarket bysteven
@bysteven, We need to see where it tops out to get a measurement but it could visit 1k again and stay above that for good. It's a matter of time to be honest because price will always revert to the mean and this will depend on a few factors at the moment it's pointless guessing a retracement level in the middle of this rally "short squeeze" until we get a clear signal of price topping.

@BTCMarket, Do you think we may get a re-test of 1070/1100 before heading to 1170/1180?
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