-No real bouncing back and forth in the yellow "consolidation zone" I had been watching, but the bottom served as solid support, and the top briefly provided some resistance.
-The more accurate pattern in that zone was the that formed within it. The breakout thereof very nicely fell just a few dollars short of the opening of the , which would have also touched the 0.618 Fib line. The move stopped right at the edge of the channel, which has served as an excellent indicator for local maxima and minima on this time frame.
-This latest leg up apparently came on the back of the conclusion of the first auction of Silk Road coins. While it is tempting to correlate the two, I believe that the auctions of Silk Road/Dread Pirate Roberts coins are essentially non-news insofar as the exchanges themselves are concerned, as most players on that scale are more interested than investing than playing on exchanges within a total market cap of less than $8 billion. Rather, these "news" events are opportunities for savvier traders to "herd sheep" into buying or selling out of panic and taking the market where it is already headed. I.e., technicals are still going to tell us in what direction the market will respond to future updates... but that's not exactly a new revelation!
-Moving into the near-term future, there is an AB = CD pattern that may be forming. Unfortunately I managed to convince myself not to make a long entry at 560.
--However, 630-640 would be a perfectly good place to open a short position, with a stop set just above that devilish resistance around 666. A target of landing back on the top of the old yellow consolidation zone, 580-585, would give a Risk:Reward of about 2. A more adventurous target might be a retest of one of the many longer-term support lines that are in this region; the line from April 11 to the start of the May rally seems most likely to me, but there are other possibilities.
-All of the above aside, I am almost entirely in , and have no BTCUSD positions open for the coming month. The fundamentals are as strong as ever, so the long-term picture is quite . I have absolutely no qualms with holding for the long term.
I hope that, if anything, this can help others to formulate quality thoughts and trades! Feel free to drop me a line regarding the chart or anything - I can't promise that I will answer it right away, but I will try to do so to the best of my abilities.
Time for this goose to hibernate!