Hello all,
In my last post, in the comments, I informed everyone that I closed my shorts:
I made about $700/btc short so it was a pretty good trade. Now, I am taking the tiniest of nibbles long here as the stop is quite far away and I am not sure of this move generally speaking, but I can afford to take the position as it fits my strategy, so that's what I have done.
I wanted to comment about taking this position, because it is certainly not an ideal one to take. For starters, the monthly, which determines the broad structure of the market is bullish, but it is not nearly as bullish as it was say two months ago or so. It has weakened a great deal since we have been in this tight range. That said, it could break out from here after pausing and technically speaking, that's what betting on makes sense to me as continuation of a trend is more likely than a trend reversal.
Beyond that, the weekly does in fact look poised to dump. Given the weakness in the monthly and that fact that this entire over 200% move has retraced almost none tells me it is very reasonably to expect an absolutely rugpull and collapse in prices. That doesn't have to happen by a holy decree, but it has me questioning bullish bets. In practice, because of this, I have reduced my bullish bias, but it is still there. So, my longs will be smaller now than they would have been a while ago.
And of course, the daily information is why I am long. It is bullish to me, but not THAT bullish. The only clear metric is the weekly and that is working against me. So there is a lot of conflict with this trade as hopefully I have expressed by now.
My hope is that when you are taking positions, when you consider the size, you should think about different time frames and how it fits into your perspective on the larger trend. If the trend is clear, you can bet heavier to that end, if it's less clear, you should bet smaller all things being equal.
Hope this gets you thinking,
-YoungShkreli
In my last post, in the comments, I informed everyone that I closed my shorts:
I made about $700/btc short so it was a pretty good trade. Now, I am taking the tiniest of nibbles long here as the stop is quite far away and I am not sure of this move generally speaking, but I can afford to take the position as it fits my strategy, so that's what I have done.
I wanted to comment about taking this position, because it is certainly not an ideal one to take. For starters, the monthly, which determines the broad structure of the market is bullish, but it is not nearly as bullish as it was say two months ago or so. It has weakened a great deal since we have been in this tight range. That said, it could break out from here after pausing and technically speaking, that's what betting on makes sense to me as continuation of a trend is more likely than a trend reversal.
Beyond that, the weekly does in fact look poised to dump. Given the weakness in the monthly and that fact that this entire over 200% move has retraced almost none tells me it is very reasonably to expect an absolutely rugpull and collapse in prices. That doesn't have to happen by a holy decree, but it has me questioning bullish bets. In practice, because of this, I have reduced my bullish bias, but it is still there. So, my longs will be smaller now than they would have been a while ago.
And of course, the daily information is why I am long. It is bullish to me, but not THAT bullish. The only clear metric is the weekly and that is working against me. So there is a lot of conflict with this trade as hopefully I have expressed by now.
My hope is that when you are taking positions, when you consider the size, you should think about different time frames and how it fits into your perspective on the larger trend. If the trend is clear, you can bet heavier to that end, if it's less clear, you should bet smaller all things being equal.
Hope this gets you thinking,
-YoungShkreli
Comment:
Also, simply by looking at my last post, you can see what I imagine could happen. I still see that as an option, just the detour we have taken has obviously exceeded what I thought it would.
Comment:
Stopped out of nibbles ~$200 loss. Will wait and see.
Comment:
I’ve been scammed out of my shorts. Stinks
Comment:
back short, update soon