Bitcoin daily - 34-37k or 24-26k where the consolidation ends?
Hi everyone,
I'd like to share you my view and strategy on bitcoin that I followed since August.
Please don't take my idea as financial advice, and I'd be glad to hear constructive feedback about it.
This is my very first shared idea, so I'd like to get you in context, to show you at what extent you can rely on my idea or NOT :)
I'm careful to invest my risk portfolio money, and I think next few days everyone should consider twice to take a position, especially a long position. Don't FOMO in! That's why I write this story of me, and my idea with a lot of explanation.
SKIP the story if not interested.
----------------- MY STORY SO FAR BEGIN------------------------
So, I'm not a professional trader, nor a day trader. I love technology, I invest most of my portfolio tech stocks for long term. At July 20, seeing the accumulation ending after the big fall of crypto (liking what I see at the ETH ecosystem, smart contracts, PoS coming, and the emerging adoption), and the fair price of 1700-1800 USD I decided to invest an additional 10-max 20% of my funds as "risk portfolio" into ETH. Unfortunately by the time my money arrived to a platform to buy any, it was already above $2600 :D
So I decided to watch time to time and learn whatever I can to make a good investment. I learned quickly that analyzing BTC is the best way to get a good signal, even for ETH, because it's pattern and indicators are more clear, e.g. balanced, nice push-ups, instead of ETH having some smaller, then a huge one, etc..
Since then I had: 1 good long with ETH at the second run-up, then quickly some loss shorting BTC (learned that classic tools I use: trend lines, MACD, DMI, RSI) is not enough here. Here is BART, super powerful repeating fractals, and a lot of unexpected moves, fake-out. 100x more challenge then waiting for a good entry point at the stock market. Then I had a crazy good short on BTC from 51.6k -> 44.5k, then a less effective one (around breaking even), because I followed the market halfway after the 48k drop.
----------------- MY STORY SO FAR END ------------------------
Now the current analysis, the idea is still the same and valid, which I follow since August:
Considerations:
- Bitcoin had a top at 52.8k at 07 Sept., this is a fact.
- Bitcoin had an unclear bottom ~ 40k. ~ 24 Sept., this is still challenged.
- Bitcoin might break out above the consolidation upper line (now, or after bouncing back from 44k for example), which immediately means that my expectations below are not correct and invalid.
- Recently, I waited a drop to at least 37k area, or even 34k. Drop came earlier than expected, then raised earlier than expected. Two times in a row, I had to re-evaluate because of this behavior :D
Expectations:
- What I realized, that 52.8k drop was a bit too large, it needed time to recover to the 44.5k-48k level. -> Drop from 48k at 18 Sept. was not the one I waited for, (waited for 49.2k+ price levels) because it will come now.
- We are approaching the price drop from 49.2k+ price levels (but not over 50.2-50.5k!!).
- It will drop us back to the 44k-40k area first, then extend.
- First Target area is between 37k-34.5k. Might extend to target 2 between 24-26k, that I would still consider as a bull flag's last touch down (instead of the triangle, see the descending channel formation)
- I think Target 1 will be reached in 10 days from now.
Indicators considered:
PRO to SHORT:
- Engaging a resistance at 49-50k
- Weakening buying power (see swaps)
- NVT showing bubble, constantly since Aug.
- Still no volume. I think this is a serious problem considering long positions. Where the hell is the trading volume? I don't believe in a bull run without volume. More likely a flag or consolidation route up of an ABC correction.
- Perpetual swaps start changing, pointing a down move for next.
- 3 waves up reached, I can also draw a rising wedge we just exited.
- Distressed global investment mood (check SPX, NASDAQ, I decided to sell my loved stocks at 23Sept, because I felt better to wait out the month end, maybe October to see where the correction ends)
- Oh yes: new moon at 06 Okt :D:D, last time it was very accurate! I did not check the moon until analyzing bitcoin lol :D
Against SHORT:
- It's bitcoin, only brave people short it. Too big moves upwards recently, I expected a more gentle upward move after it broke the descending wedge at 45k.
- MACD at my settings: 5 15 5 showed stronger move up recently than I expected.
I hope you agree / disagree with it and tell me your opinion.
Bests,
Antonio
I'd like to share you my view and strategy on bitcoin that I followed since August.
Please don't take my idea as financial advice, and I'd be glad to hear constructive feedback about it.
This is my very first shared idea, so I'd like to get you in context, to show you at what extent you can rely on my idea or NOT :)
I'm careful to invest my risk portfolio money, and I think next few days everyone should consider twice to take a position, especially a long position. Don't FOMO in! That's why I write this story of me, and my idea with a lot of explanation.
SKIP the story if not interested.
----------------- MY STORY SO FAR BEGIN------------------------
So, I'm not a professional trader, nor a day trader. I love technology, I invest most of my portfolio tech stocks for long term. At July 20, seeing the accumulation ending after the big fall of crypto (liking what I see at the ETH ecosystem, smart contracts, PoS coming, and the emerging adoption), and the fair price of 1700-1800 USD I decided to invest an additional 10-max 20% of my funds as "risk portfolio" into ETH. Unfortunately by the time my money arrived to a platform to buy any, it was already above $2600 :D
So I decided to watch time to time and learn whatever I can to make a good investment. I learned quickly that analyzing BTC is the best way to get a good signal, even for ETH, because it's pattern and indicators are more clear, e.g. balanced, nice push-ups, instead of ETH having some smaller, then a huge one, etc..
Since then I had: 1 good long with ETH at the second run-up, then quickly some loss shorting BTC (learned that classic tools I use: trend lines, MACD, DMI, RSI) is not enough here. Here is BART, super powerful repeating fractals, and a lot of unexpected moves, fake-out. 100x more challenge then waiting for a good entry point at the stock market. Then I had a crazy good short on BTC from 51.6k -> 44.5k, then a less effective one (around breaking even), because I followed the market halfway after the 48k drop.
----------------- MY STORY SO FAR END ------------------------
Now the current analysis, the idea is still the same and valid, which I follow since August:
Considerations:
- Bitcoin had a top at 52.8k at 07 Sept., this is a fact.
- Bitcoin had an unclear bottom ~ 40k. ~ 24 Sept., this is still challenged.
- Bitcoin might break out above the consolidation upper line (now, or after bouncing back from 44k for example), which immediately means that my expectations below are not correct and invalid.
- Recently, I waited a drop to at least 37k area, or even 34k. Drop came earlier than expected, then raised earlier than expected. Two times in a row, I had to re-evaluate because of this behavior :D
Expectations:
- What I realized, that 52.8k drop was a bit too large, it needed time to recover to the 44.5k-48k level. -> Drop from 48k at 18 Sept. was not the one I waited for, (waited for 49.2k+ price levels) because it will come now.
- We are approaching the price drop from 49.2k+ price levels (but not over 50.2-50.5k!!).
- It will drop us back to the 44k-40k area first, then extend.
- First Target area is between 37k-34.5k. Might extend to target 2 between 24-26k, that I would still consider as a bull flag's last touch down (instead of the triangle, see the descending channel formation)
- I think Target 1 will be reached in 10 days from now.
Indicators considered:
PRO to SHORT:
- Engaging a resistance at 49-50k
- Weakening buying power (see swaps)
- NVT showing bubble, constantly since Aug.
- Still no volume. I think this is a serious problem considering long positions. Where the hell is the trading volume? I don't believe in a bull run without volume. More likely a flag or consolidation route up of an ABC correction.
- Perpetual swaps start changing, pointing a down move for next.
- 3 waves up reached, I can also draw a rising wedge we just exited.
- Distressed global investment mood (check SPX, NASDAQ, I decided to sell my loved stocks at 23Sept, because I felt better to wait out the month end, maybe October to see where the correction ends)
- Oh yes: new moon at 06 Okt :D:D, last time it was very accurate! I did not check the moon until analyzing bitcoin lol :D
Against SHORT:
- It's bitcoin, only brave people short it. Too big moves upwards recently, I expected a more gentle upward move after it broke the descending wedge at 45k.
- MACD at my settings: 5 15 5 showed stronger move up recently than I expected.
I hope you agree / disagree with it and tell me your opinion.
Bests,
Antonio
Comment:
Looks like BTC is challenging the 51k support, and the down trend line. A push above invalidates the idea, a throwback from this level continues on this path, in my opinion.
Comment:
- The price went above my criteria, so who reads this, do not consider any shorts, especially not on my advice!
- Important to mention, that the indicators I considered did not change me yet to believe in a bull run. They got even worse since. I'm not excluding a flash crash as well, but not dealing it this time :-/
- Stay safe everyone! I'm not doing anything, especially not investing in long positions until the "strange" circumstances clean up, I give it time to the weekend to see how it resolves.
Will post if anything interesting happens that makes this post valid again.
Cheers
- Important to mention, that the indicators I considered did not change me yet to believe in a bull run. They got even worse since. I'm not excluding a flash crash as well, but not dealing it this time :-/
- Stay safe everyone! I'm not doing anything, especially not investing in long positions until the "strange" circumstances clean up, I give it time to the weekend to see how it resolves.
Will post if anything interesting happens that makes this post valid again.
Cheers
Comment:
Hi Readers,
I digged deeper into the price action with a zoomed view on bitcoin:
Be cautious when taking positions (I'm not doing it atm), as it seems that my strategy is not invalid (yet), nor is a bull breakout confirmed.
I digged deeper into the price action with a zoomed view on bitcoin:
Be cautious when taking positions (I'm not doing it atm), as it seems that my strategy is not invalid (yet), nor is a bull breakout confirmed.
www.tradingview...ls/BTCUSDLONGS/?exchange=B...
Longs on bitfinex accumulated from May - July are dropping! very bad sign..