BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1975 12 13
The daily log scale is what works for bitcoin             . Everytime there's been a major run up, it goes back down eventually. The run up this time has been really fast, and the bull trap is very evident on this scale. I'm looking at 500 before March.
Now bitcoin is talked everywhere and the the herd rushes to fight for the last baton. LOL.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts... One thing bothers me a target of 500 would be new behaviour for the $BTCUSD. Till now all the so called "bubbles" the stock-guys screamed did never retraced deeper than 50% and only spiked as deep as 70% (like the previous so-called-bubble) which went down to $80 and than stabilised around 100. So far I think we already experienced the deep spike down the last time, could go down a bit but I think a lot of people are willing to step in between $500 ~ $700 that it will be pritty hard to evaporate those buy orders. :-) But than again :-) don't take my word on it. Nobody knows! If you get your stop placed well and it drops you're doing very well on a short.
I'm making fun of the stock-bubble-scream-guys as a bubble like the tulips and other historic bubbles only got up once and than dropped down to never come up again. BTC has done the Blast up over 3 times now and every new low is higher than the previous low on the big moves. $6, $100, $800 (if we hold here would we great.. if we tank to $500 would be good too). Never the less, the bubble-fans seems to step by the fact that the price on the long term charts makes higher highs and higher lows, which in my dictionary is an uptrend until there are lower lows and lower highs. :-) Anyway, thanks for your mind-share :-)
May the pips be with you :-)
Same "Bull Trap" we whitnessed in April this year ??? ;)
Invezted Invezted
The log scale would work for BTC if it were growing "just" exponentially. It did grow exponentially in the past, which is why you are able to make a regression line that you call "normal" on your chart. If you look at the current growth in the number of users, media interest, exchanges, and miners, you'll see that those figures are growing *faster* than exponentially.

You can already see this "growth in growth" on your chart. If you look at the very first bubble and the subsequent correction, price action dipped far below your "normal" line. For the second "April bubble", price dipped to the normal line, but not below. For our current bubble, if that's what we are calling it, price will most probably not dip to your "normal" line.

Your linear regression will have to be adjusted accordingly to take into account price action in the future. :)
Tell that to China
when the price shoots up 400% then you don't call that a bull trap, You call it oh bullshit I missed the ride!!! but eventually it will come down
wojtaskan kamukak
how much btc did you buy above 1k$ ?;)
Paolodotcom wojtaskan
He did not have to. I sold most of my BTC at 600$ because it is a bubble and it has to fall. Then it doubled and fell still above that 600$. You never know.
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