Cryptosomniac
Short

Bitcoin has a higher probability of breaking down to $7.6k

BYBIT:BTCUSD   BTCUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
1d time frame:
The past few days I've stated that the real direction could be determined by closing above the $10365 marker on the daily or below the $10024 marker. Neither of which has happened. So I expect more sideways (1-2 more days) until one direction powerfully overcomes the other. Because this is either re-accumulation before a push up OR a distribution happening slowly and a weakening of strength by the bulls. The latter is my bet. If this is distribution, it makes sense we stay above the $10k area for a bit because the bears get to sell BTC at a reasonable price before ensuing panic around $9k or $8k if price tanks and buyers disappear. For now, the buyers are just enough to hold price there but not enough to push it up further.

\u2028Also -notice the important 100MA (purple) has been tapped 4 times in the last 9 days. This is typically not how you want to react to key levels or moving averages. Same with the ascending trend line we’ve seen since May. Though we haven’t quite closed below it, the bears are working hard to make it happen. \u2028\u2028Finally, there’s a very evident head and shoulders pattern being created on the very same trend line . The breach of this trend line and the H&S gives us a target of $4500 which may be possible but a bit unlikely, at least for now. It remains to be seen how price will react between the more recent order block of $7.6k to $8.5k. And then we can talk.

Until then I remain short and am still targeting low $9k’s at the least and if that breaks the $7.6k to $8.5k order block is my target.
Comment:
4h time frame:
There is a perfect trend line that is hitting price currently that comes from the prev. swings from $10.8k and $10.4k highs. I would not be surprised if this 4h candle closes under it. Also note that the 4h chart shows an ascending trend line that held price up multiple times. Notice how each bounce from the touch of the trend line is smaller and smaller. Eventually this trend line will crack if we do not close higher and keep the momentum to the upside. Personally, I think it may crack in the next 2 days given the already lackadaisical nature of volume and buyers. The $10k zone has been defended many times by the bulls but you can only play so much defense until sellers overwhelm you.
Comment:
1h time frame:
Price shows a breach of the yellow box coupled with strong momentum. However price has not yet reached the prev. swing high around $10450. Now we have to see if that same yellow box will be turned into support because then price could have another potential to keep moving back up past $104XX. Until then lower highs on this time frame still give it a higher probability to break down further.
Comment: Update 1:

15m time frame:
Notice the smaller time frames shows a ascending broadening wedge - a higher probability that price in this pattern breaks down. We did have consistent increases in demand volume as noted. However, I am still of the opinion that the lower the higher time frames are starting to show weakness in not only volume but momentum.
Comment:
Notice also the bouncy ball effect of lower highs and then essentially flat lining on 41 point support on RSI. Even this support can only hold so long before it cracks to eventually going into oversold territory.
Comment:
Also notice how price hit the top of 1h Ichi cloud
Comment:

After yesterday's big price spike notice how the 1h chart still showing signs of weakness and barely holding above $10250 support (yellow box) or not able to pass $10450 resistance. This tells me that there could be more further downside. In my opinion, yesterday's volume and price movement was inorganic and more a quick short squeeze. This gives us further reason to believe that price could collapse through its support because there's no real buyers holding prices up. The ones who pushed it this high were only covering because their shorts got liquidated.
Comment:
Close above $10400 on the daily and we're more bullish with more potential upside. Close below $10024 and we're bearish with more potential downside.

Stay within those two and we're just moving sideways and no clear direction. You can wait above or below one of those levels to jump into a trade. A trade now is not the most optimal positioning.
Comment:
On the smaller time frames - 15m chart we can see a well defined trading range that price has been moving in. Top of range is around $10400 and the bottom is $10200. This $200 range is also moving perfectly within the bollinger bands as well. Finally, the price is currently under the pivot. If price keeps hitting the top of the range it'll break up toward R1 around $10625 or if price breaks down past $10200 then S1 will be hit around $10100.
Comment:
Notice the RSI and the price is trapped in between resistance and a support that has been hammered at multiple times. Neither of which are breaking.

BTC price on the daily shows two H&S patterns as you can see. The neckline is currently around $9850 for the smaller H&S and for the larger H&S it was around $10200 and we've breached it already. The real resistance to break on the daily is $10400 and support is $10025. Unless one of these is broken, it's hard to say which direction price will go in the coming days.

I lean short due to the fact that we keep hammering away at key trend line support and the 100MA that resides right where price is currently.
I agree Bitcoin may fall down to these levels, but before this I see a move up!
Reply
Great analysis. Thanks for sharing. Your vision is excellent.
Reply
ferGOD ferGOD
@ferGOD, My expectation

SHORT BITCOIN - Elliott Wave Double Three Combination

Reply
You're doing great work, thank you. I see multiple H&S on that chart, definitely losing momentum on each bounce and defense of the 10k support. I expect 9100 to be an easy fill for a bounce off of the bottom of the monthly inside bar.
Reply
Great analysis! It should be interesting to see how the next few days / weeks play out. Side note: I'm surprised you don't have a bunch of angry perma-bulls here throwing insults at you already.
Reply
@forekast, You should see my inbox and my past comments from when I said that $13XXX will be near the top of this current run and a deeper retrace will be necessary.
+1 Reply

Notice also the bouncy ball effect of lower highs and then essentially flat lining on 41 point support on RSI. Even this support can only hold so long before it cracks to eventually going into oversold territory.
Reply
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