Hello everyone,
I haven't been making many Bitcoin posts lately because the volatility has been dead and I haven't had an opinion. Well, here's what I will say: I am leaning bearish on BTC.
I believe it is likely that we will break out of the descending triangle to the downside and retest $5k support. With the last pump being completely ineffectual, we are not ready to be bullish. There is nothing here that tells me the market is strong.
That said, I am not sure that bitcoin IS going to go down in the next big move. In order of probability, here's how I see it ( p() means probability of event): p(btc stays flat) ~= p(btc crashes) > p(btc moons). All of this is within a timeframe of about three months. In words, I think bitcoin mooning is the least likely event to occur in the timeframe.
I've seen some charts that compare this current market with BTC's last bear market and show that the low volatility correlates with the bottom. Well, it's possible that the bottom is in, but I just think that we should be moving slower now. The bigger a market becomes, the slower it should move. So, if it took x months to find a bottom after the top in the previous bear market, it should take >x months to find a bottom in this bear market. I could be wrong, but that's how I see it. Either way, there is nothing bullish here for certain.
I would stay out of the market for now. Good luck.
-YoungShkreli
I haven't been making many Bitcoin posts lately because the volatility has been dead and I haven't had an opinion. Well, here's what I will say: I am leaning bearish on BTC.
I believe it is likely that we will break out of the descending triangle to the downside and retest $5k support. With the last pump being completely ineffectual, we are not ready to be bullish. There is nothing here that tells me the market is strong.
That said, I am not sure that bitcoin IS going to go down in the next big move. In order of probability, here's how I see it ( p() means probability of event): p(btc stays flat) ~= p(btc crashes) > p(btc moons). All of this is within a timeframe of about three months. In words, I think bitcoin mooning is the least likely event to occur in the timeframe.
I've seen some charts that compare this current market with BTC's last bear market and show that the low volatility correlates with the bottom. Well, it's possible that the bottom is in, but I just think that we should be moving slower now. The bigger a market becomes, the slower it should move. So, if it took x months to find a bottom after the top in the previous bear market, it should take >x months to find a bottom in this bear market. I could be wrong, but that's how I see it. Either way, there is nothing bullish here for certain.
I would stay out of the market for now. Good luck.
-YoungShkreli