(with log price scale) proposed, Bubble breaks up and out, for 121 days (more or less a quarter). Stays in channel for 121 days again (bar silk road freak out, not really a valid data point) Breaks up and out again, will this be another 121 day period/bubble? Vertical lines every 1.5 Months Approx., Significant points on their times:
1st line : Bottom of channel
2nd line : Breakout
3rd line : Peak of April bubble
5th line : July minimum
6th line : Roughly when growth from july min stops (weak correlation)
7th line : When Bitcoin goes back on rise
For the short term, I think bubble will form, due to timings, media coverage ect... For long term, the constant growth shows no sign of stopping, especially due to the deflationary nature of Bitcoin . By march, I do not expect price to go below the channel, leaving a minimum of $500.