My evidence... none other than I was already shorting for an overdue retracement - before any China FUD.
original retracement broke powerfully through .5 fib.
#1 - 2nd retracement must come before a break back up (and this retracement is already in progress).
likely to have the overhang of FUD at least until October.
hence likely to continue down moderately past the current leg .5 fib.
#2 - 20EMA and 200EMA closing to give a 2nd indicator of where break to the up may occur.
Short from $4075
Phasing in LONG at $3630 increasing down to approx $3550.
Build up LONG further after around $3550
If doesn't come and solid break through $3550 then phase out LONG quickly, look for a retest of $3200, $3000, $2900 and even $2660 if FUD increases.