- Long term logarithmic up, bull trend line (Blue)
- Medium term logarithmic down, bear trend line (Red)
- 3X Fib drawings, I am calling them:
- Long: Bull run “Start” (15 Sep .17) -> All Time High (17 Dec .17)
- Medium: All Time High (17 Dec .17) -> Retraced Low (06 Feb .18)
- Calling it “The Mid Term Swing”: 20 Feb .18 -> 01 April .18
- Ichimoku Cloud (20, 60, 120)
- 2X EMAs
- 50 Day
- 200 Day
- Volume Profile
The good news
1. Looking at the long term bull trend, it essentially acts as a resistance which can be seen tested a few times in the previous week. I am hoping that this will turn into support again. You could argue that I should draw a new long term trend, but for now I am going to leave it as is. It is possible that a price can move above or below a said trend line. \u2028
2. We closed above the medium term bear trend. There was a lot of suspense with this trend line because every time a trend gets rejected it is considered to be more difficult to break next time around. So the fact that we managed to close above this, and some, is a good sign.\u2028
3. The volume profile shows that we have created an insane amount of support in the 8250 and 6600 range since the “start” of the bull run, around 30%. This makes me believe that it will be difficult to go below this.\u2028Further on the volume profile, as will be mentioned later, the Fib Zone does not have much of a support from a volume profile point of view.
The Resistance
The following will act as resistance
1. The fib zone I have on the chart (Blue rectangle), is created using the following Fib levels from the fib drawing explained above:
1. Long -> 0.618 (9440)
2. Medium -> 0.236 (9287)
3. Swing -> 0.5 (9118)\u2028
2. The long term fib 0.618 level also happens to be at the same point as the Leading Span B on the Ichi cloud.
The Sentiment and the market
The market seems very positive, my only worry here is that it is weakend(see what I did there), which usually brings lower volumen, and some weekends have moved in the opposite direction the previous week gave us.
Looking at the total market cap, this shows me that money is moving back into the market.
What’s interesting is the Market Capitalisation. It almost seems that people are getting into alts sooner, which makes me question whether or not we are seeing a shift, where in the past BTC will rise and alts follow to a scenario where BTC no longer shows that dominance.