4xForecaster
Short

Resistance At Geo's Rule #2; Bears Eye 170.70 | #bitcoin $BTC

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
7510 43 53
10 months ago
SYNOPSIS:

A long silence here on $BTC #BitStamp, as the Geo             completes an imperfect 5-prime (see parallel lines validation at 5') - Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, this 5-prime definition called for a rally with a HIGH probability target corresponding to the price level of Point-4. Turns out, this is exactly what price did, as it rallied from 5' but failed to continue its ascent above the price level of Point-4 - See light PINK range in the following chart:

snapshot


GEO             CONSTRUCTION:

For the adept in Geo             , look for a near perfect construction, where 1-2 Leg represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, the 2-3 Leg represents a complex Elliott Wave (EW) ZZ, the 3-4 Leg represents a simple EW ZZ, and price departs from the validation of the Geo's 1-3 Line.


GEO's OFF-SET RULE:

As a reminder, the Geo's Off-Set Rule represent a geometric             compensation where distortion of price along the 1-3 and 2-4 Line will tend to displace the high probability target, such that:

Off-Set Rule #1 - If price rallies from Point-5, the HIGH probability target lies along the 1-4 Line (same as Wolfe Wave target);

Off-Set Rule #2 - If price rallies from Point-5', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-4 (as was the case in this example);

AND

Off-Set Rule #3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-3.

NOTE that the relative incidence of these rules are such that:

Off-Set Rule #2 > Off-Set Rule #1 >>> Off-Set Rule #3


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Aside from this background geometry, the Predictive/Forecasting Model offers the two following high-probability target:

1 - TG-1 = 266.41 - 09 FEB 2016

AND

2 - TG-Lox = 170.70 - 09 FEB 2016


INVALIDATION:

The higher target that were defined last November remain unattainable at this point, based on the interdicting nature of the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, whereby price remains subordinate to the Geo's 1-4 Line. However, invalidation of this rule should occur IF price BACA > 1-4 Line (RED arrows), in which case, bearish target would also become invalid.


OVERALL:

Bearish outlook based on background Geo's rule and supported by Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish target - Invalidation depends upon price breaching above the 1-4 Line.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView:
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10 months ago
Comment: 09 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

In the case of an adverse excursion (here, we are referring to a rally), consider $502 a reasonable threshold for bear to worry:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
10 months ago
Comment: 13 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for possibility of price carving a higher high, now that it appears to consolidate at the above 388.58 resistance level:
snapshot


Watch for the WW/Geo completion here.

Best,

David Alcindor
10 months ago
Comment: 13 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

BLACK Geo completes at 5 versus BLUE Geo completing at 5':
snapshot


Another intermediate geo also completed at the current price level - Price is being pressured down. If price breaks > 392.00, then bulls got out of this sticky tar pit.

David

David
10 months ago
Comment: 13 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Adding structural top level at 391.88 and WL at 393.88:
snapshot


David Alcindor
10 months ago
Comment: Typo: WL = 398.99 (not 393.88):

snapshot


David Alcindor
9 months ago
Comment: 16 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this 1.618-Fib retracement on M15x4 timeframe since WL failure:
snapshot


Would correspond to 0.386-Fib retracement and structural support.

Best,

David Alcindor
6 months ago
Comment: 25 MAY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

502 may represent a make or brake in this DAILY chart - Look for this developing geometry ... Staying off of lower timeframes:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
6 months ago
Comment: 05 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Analysis had to occur at the WEEKLY level, but most recent targets remain intact:

snapshot


Look for the potential development of a WW/Geo, with Point-3 possibly occurring in the area defined by the 591/647 zone.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
6 months ago
Comment: 07 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Speculative play in #bitcoin:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
6 months ago
Comment: 07 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Friends,

Using the chart I posted recently, here is how the WW/Geo would fit in the speculative price pathway:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
6 months ago
Comment: 07 JUN 2016 - Addendeum:

Potential reciprocal ab = cd symmetry development, approximates targets:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
6 months ago
Comment: 11 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit 612.96 target. As per WEEKLY forecast, expecting slight retracement, likely towards the 502 structural support:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 17 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Bears reached a nosebleed WL level defined in the Weekly chart as a make-or-break level (i.e.: having to convert to a Monthly level analysis if price closed the week above that level).

However, a reversal pattern may be forming, looking at a potential H&S with internal bearish impulse now pointing:

snapshot


Looking at the H1 level, a soft support exists at the 686.56/676.80 range, with potential decline below to the 470.02 (502 in the Weekly chart, although this level of refinement can only be confirmed if and once price follows a bearish downward course, as forecast in the Weekly chart.

Have a wonderful weekend,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
5 months ago
Comment: 18 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch out for this potential bearish pathway:

snapshot


David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 18 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Double-topped; Bears remain in charge:

snapshot


David
5 months ago
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Look for these successive levels of support:

$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - M15:
snapshot


$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - H1:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart update:

Break of this support may fashion the ominous H&S:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
5 months ago
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price hit the 706 level ... Bears pressing on:

snapshot


Best,

David
5 months ago
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price stomped at neckline range, ... Defines a higher-probability H&S pattern ... Bearish:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update;

First, happy first day of summer!

Second: Bears remain in force, as price continues to decline from the forecast WL and follows the bearish forecast:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price cleared the forecast 686/676 range, fell and now tests the presumed H&S neckline - Per H1 Model, look for a support at the 559.95 level at this timeframe, whereas bears remain the dominant force in the longer frames:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Comment: 22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price fell as forecast, hitting lower numerical target, TG-1 = 559.95:

snapshot


At this point, as per TG-1 nature, expect a retracement (as opposed to reversal seen in qualitative targets), up to, but unlikely above the 676/686 range, which represents to prior target.

Best,

David Alcindor, CM Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)
5 months ago
Comment: 22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Remember this overall WEEKLY chart:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
5 months ago
Comment: 23 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Retracement target range of 686/676 was hit, as per dashed forecast line:

snapshot


David Alcindorr, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
5 months ago
Comment: 24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price is retracting from overhead target zone, following a sustained ascent after hitting lower target - Outlook remains bearish:

snapshot


Look for a breach and sustained, impulsive move above the prior target-hit at 759.09 for an invalidation of current predictive analysis and forecast.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
5 months ago
Comment: 24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

As price continues to follow the dashed arrow pathway closely, here is some refinement of the predictive analysis:

1 - Price is likely to break above 683.88 - By doing so, bulls are fighting an uphill battle, meeting significant resistance at the 714.01 level, and likely being stomped with probable reversal at the 744.15 level.
2 - Invalidation of reversal scenario would occur if price BACA > 778.85
3 - Bearish forecast remains intact and in force, as per recently posted WEEKLY chart.

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Comment: 25 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains under the 683.88 handle; Still, expecting a limited upside move in the 714/744 range:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 26 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Bulls were not able to push back to expected level shown; Now carving lower-low - Bearish tack remains intact and in force:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 26 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Bulls are pushing back. If price BACA > 683.88, then consider 744.15 a high-probability reversal level at this lower timeframe - Still, larger TF remains bearish with lower lows eyes:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Comment: 30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

If price BACA > 683, then 144 remains the next probable highest target:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Comment: 02 JULY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price broke through 683.88 ... Look for significant bearish entrenchment in the 714.01/744.15 range:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
4 months ago
Comment: 02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price carves lower-lows, opens to bearish targets: 502.00 is probable, 309 remains possible:
snapshot


Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
4 months ago
Comment: 02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:

Price hit forecast 502 level:
snapshot


CROW Code students, look for CROW cycle completion at failure following Tail completion

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
4 months ago
Comment: 06 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for these two levels:

1 - Resistance at 645.00

AND

2 - Support at 245.16

snapshot


Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
3 months ago
Comment: 17 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

High-probability reversal at the 145/666 range ... Watch for 660.02:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
a month ago
Comment: 04 NOV 2016 - Announcement:

Predictive Analysis/Forecasting of Composite $BTC WEEKLY chart released (BTCe + BitStamp + BitFinex)
https://twitter.com/4xForecaster/status/794656812322717696

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster
- Check #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent performance
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
ChartArt
10 months ago
There is a massive bearish potential I agree. I'm starting to lean more bullish in recent days, but so far the price is only chopping around even more in a neutral range.


13 days ago when I posted the following; the medium-term trend was more bearish than right now:

All-time Bitcoin uptrend broke in 2016.New downtrend to 500 CNY




As I posted almost a month ago the price re-entered this potential long-term downtrend:

snapshot


Here is the according chart:

Bitcoin - Breakout or Breakdown?




All of this happened after forming a triple top last month:

The Bitcoin rally is over after forming a triple top pattern
Reply
4xForecaster PRO ChartArt
10 months ago
Hello @ChartArt - Looking at each of your chart, I can't help to see that the structure is pointing to lower-lows and lower-highs. This is what is most striking to me. Also, the chart with the channel illustrates bullish channel failure patterns as well, suggesting overbearing bears.

Overall, the eyeballing of the chart points to a series of support failures (static at failed price levels, as well as dynamic at bullish support failures).

I keep a daily eye on this, but I am waiting for significant failures to occur.

David
+3 Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Hi David,

Thank you for the new chart and update.

How do you evaluate the WW-patterns in the following 4-Hour chart from Bitstamp?

I can see a rise from the current 375-level to 420-450.

That pattern is part of a bigger triangle pattern for a wave 4 in Elliott Wave in the Daily chart.

Overall it could mean a bullish outcome to your higher targets painting a bigger Wolve Wave on the Daily.

Regards.

snapshot


snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
10 months ago
Hello eYou1 - Yes, the charts you have posted are illustrating a high probable ply. At this point, I am looking at a M15 level chart, where the following might occur within these ranges. They are not forecasts, but part of a prop pattern (JANUS) that appears to unfold - Note that all of the pattern-based trading carry a much lower probability than my Model. However, among all patterns, the Wolfe Wave / Geo are the strongest.

snapshot


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Hello David,

I will Google other charts where you explain the JANUS-pattern to learn more about this trading concept.
Thank you for this idea.

If this JANUS-pattern unfolds as you illustrated in the 15-minute chart, I can see good congruence with the black WW illustrated in the box in the 4-hour chart below.

A question I have:

Visiting the 371-level in your 15-minute chart after we topped at 388, means also you expect breaking 371-support from there and visiting lower levels, according to your Model?

Regards

snapshot


Reply
eYou1 eYou1
10 months ago
As an additional comment:

The Chinese exchanges seem to have completed this black WW in the 4-hour Chart (Huobi, OKCoin, BTCChina) and are showing a spread with Bitfinex and Bitstamp of 16-17 dollar.
Western exchanges seem more bearish. The Chinese are rather bullish.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
10 months ago
Typo ... WL = 398.88 - David
Reply
limsta
10 months ago
Hi David, What does WL stands for?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO limsta
10 months ago
Hello @limsta - Here is a link of a recent blog I wrote defining most of the terms I us:
https://t.co/i5plvbyB8f

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Here is the entire blog:

The Predictive/Forecasting Model's Quant-Target versus Qual-Target - Explained.
Feb 10, 2016


QUANT vs. QUAL TARGETS:
The Predictive/Forecasting Model has TWO types of targets. Each represent a different level of probability in terms of attainment, reversal versus retracement strength, and Fibonacci correlations.

QUANT-TARGETS:
One is a quantitative (i.e.: number-based) target, which I refer to as Quant-Target, and is expressed as TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... TG-n. These targets refer to future pivot points IF and when price enter a new price territory that has never been reached before. If it enters prior territories and defines a Quant-Target, then it is likely to correspond to either a prior R/S level (pivot) or a nodular/nodal core, which project from the 50% of recent discreet geometries.

QUANT-TARGETS & FIBONACCI LEVELS:
In terms of reversible PROBABILITY, a Quant-Target represents a HIGHER level of probable attainment, but a LOWER level of probable reversibility. So, if and once price reaches that Quant-Target, it has a high probability of retracing (not reversing), which means that a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618 is most probable, but price will tend regain its primary trend and surpass all of these levels, moving on up to higher/lower levels, typically towards Quant-Targets (see below).

QUAL-TARGETS:
The other is a qualitative (i.e.: high/low-based) target, which I refer to as Qual-Target, ans is expressed as TG-Hi, TG-Hix, TG-Lo, or TG-Lox, where "x" represents the next extreme-most level of TG-Hi or T-Lo. These targets refer to future reversal levels, where the extreme-most level (TG-Hix or TG-Lox) represents a LOWER probability of attainment, but the HIGHEST probability of reversal IF and when price gets there.

QUAL-TARGETS & FIBONACCI LEVELS:
In terms of Fibonacci, if price reaches TG-Hi or TG-Lo, it will most probably reverse in the Fibonacci order that should exceed 0.618, and in fact is likely to attain 1.131, 1.272, 1,313 or 1.414. However, if price reaches TG-Hix or TG-Lox, it will ost probably reverse in the Fibonacci order that should exceed 1.131, and in fact is likely to attain 1.414, or even 1.618.

COLOR CODES:
The color I use for Quant-Targets are YELLOW - For Qual-target, there are the following:
Nose-Bleed RED - TG-Hi/TG-LoBruising PURPLE - TG-Hix/TG-Lox

WATCH LINE AND TIME MULTIPLIER:
Another level I use is the "WL", which indicates a "Watch Line". The Watch Line is that level which if attain should prompt my analyses to move 4-times the current timeframe. So, the work-flow from each timeframe should be as follows, IF price hits the WL line:
1 - M15 moves up to M15 x 4 = H12 - H1 moves up to H1 x 4 = H43 - H4 moves up to H4 x 4 ~ Daily4 - Daily moves up to Daily x 4 ~ Weekly5 - Weekly moves up to Weekly x 4 = Monthly

WATCH LINE REASONING:
The reason these levels are moves up is that price will tend to fall under the influence of the controlling agent with the timeframe in consideration. So, as long as the Model is right in term of its Quant/Qual-Target, then the timeframe in consideration remains in control of price. However, an adverse excursion that would push price outside of these Model's frame would likely cause price to Break Across, Close Across ("BACA") the WL line. If this were to occur, then the timeframe is assumed to have lost control, and the higher frames at four-times the current level, is where the agents (typically higher funded, and thus most often institutional) of interference took the activity.

Best,

David Alcindor

Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

Durango, Colorado - USA

-----

Twitter: @4xForecaster

Linked-In: David Alcindor

TradingView: 4xForecaster

-----
+2 Reply
Diabolicus 4xForecaster
6 months ago
Hi David, it's been a while since your last update. Is your model still eyeing the same targets (266/170, invalidated by BACA 1-4 line ~near 552 at the moment)? And does your model in any way include the upcoming block reward halving in its calculations? I figure this upcoming sudden drop in supply is a very unique feature. Out of curiosity: do you know of any other asset with comparable behaviour?
+1 Reply
giuseppesoio
6 months ago
hello David,

Is it possible that we have already topped reaching point 3, 1.414 fib ext.
Also RSI seems toppish.

snapshot


+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO giuseppesoio
6 months ago
Hello @giuseppesoio - Yes, the 1.414 level appears very plausible here - Your internal 1-2-3-4-5'' (RED) would call for a price return to the level of its point-3 (Geo's Rule #3), defining an expectant value for Point-4 (BLUE) along the line you have defined.

Very nice.

David Alcindor
Reply
giuseppesoio 4xForecaster
6 months ago
Thanks David, this could develop in a new ww geo.
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO giuseppesoio
6 months ago
Hello @giuseppesoio - Yes, you got it.

Using the chart I posted recently, here is how the WW/Geo would fit in the speculative price pathway:

snapshot


Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
grahvity
6 months ago
Thanks for the updates!
+1 Reply
11 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit 612.96 target. As per WEEKLY forecast, expecting slight retracement, likely towards the 502 structural support:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
unasisaivanu PRO 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Hey David now the watch line is broken can you post a monthly forcast?
Reply
bitsunrise
5 months ago
Thanks for the updates David!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO bitsunrise
5 months ago
Hello @bitsunrise, you are very welcome - David
Reply
eYou
5 months ago
Hello David, do you still expect the range 714.01 / 744.15 to be hit and a reversal after that?

snapshot
Reply
CaliCrypto
4 months ago
are looking at a retrace up to 672?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO CaliCrypto
4 months ago
Hello @CaliCrypto - If I were a market maker and needed to rob people of their hard-earn money, I would:

1 - Bring price to nose-bleed levels ... Done (last historical reversal raising everyone's expectation of a "it's got to go higher" consecutive high)
2 - But then, bore them to death with a time-consumptive consolidation ... Done (ensuing consolidation up to today, prior to sudden decline)
3 - Bring price down against most expectations ... Done (today)
4 - Next? How about a stop-loss steam roller? ...
5 - ... Before another severely abysmal leg down.

Here are the charts I have posted over the past weeks/months, which can be reviewed above as well (although different timeframes may have produced different targets, the LARGER timeframes are typically under larger institutional players) - Following is a simple recap of the analyses I had posted:

07 JUN 2016:
Here, a WEEKLY chart refines the WL line from 722.23 on 02 NOV 2015:
snapshot

... To 759.09 on 03 JUN 2016
snapshot


07 JUN 2016:
Here, I define a potential geometry:
snapshot


... As well as taking into consideration a simpler geometry in the form of a reciprocal ab=cd symmetry:
snapshot


11 JUN 2016:
Four days following, a target gets hit:
snapshot


17 JUN 2016:
... So, I look into a finer timeframe ... Hourly, and define 686/676 as probable level of bullish entrenchment (pink zone), as well as a significant structural level at 706:
snapshot


21 JUN 2016:
Sure enough, price breaks down from the WL forecast level and reaches down to the predicted 686/676 level ... From here, the Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests a potential price pathway to the upside, but limited as shown:
snapshot


... And indeed, price remains tethered to forecast dashed line:
snapshot


22 JUN 2016:
Here, I point out to a significant geometric line, which is that of a neckline from a developing H&S:
snapshot


Note how since the first HOURLY chart, I had defined an ABYSMAL target at 470.02 ... Well, I decide to define an intermediate target as well, using my Predictive/Forecasting Model ... This leads to the definition of TG-1 = 559.95 on 22 JUN 2016

22 JUN 2016:
Well, on that same day of being defined, price hits that target:
snapshot


... So, I decided to use the "Model" once more to define a potential reactive rally ... This is what the DASHED lines defined ahead of time.

23 JUN 2016:
... Well, in the next day, price does just that ... Hitting the level as anticipated:
snapshot


24 JUN 2016:
... Then, reverse on a dime on next day:
snapshot


The rest of the month, I warn traders against a potential bulish push, albeit a limited one, given specific parameters, but price remained within the lower defined levels:
snapshot


26 JUN 2016:
snapshot


30 JUN 2016:
snapshot


02 JUL 2016:
snapshot


NOTE that on 22 JUN 2016, I used the WEEKLY chart to note that the WL line was NOT breached in the Weekly chart, and this this timeframe remains in control:
snapshot


So, picking back up from above 30 JUN 2016 chronology, we are now looking at the 02 AUG 2016 chart:
snapshot


Now, here we are today ... 02 AUG 2016
snapshot



OVERALL - I expect that the targets below get hit. It remains still difficult to "read" the charts, since the Predictive/Forecasting Model I use is best calibrated at the H4 timeframes. Still, it does let out significant and relevant pieces of information, most of which relates to direction, strength and extent of price action (Predictive Analysis), as well as specific price target (Forecasting), in anmethid I have called "The CROW Code".

The CROW stands for "Constant Rescaling Of Wavelets", which only takes note of fractal events occurring in modified indicators. So, price is NEVER considered, except when it needs to be used as an anchor to define a target.

It may sound a bit obscure, but that is how I come up with these "crazy" forecasts.

Cheers,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
3 months ago
Hi David,

I played with your latest update and the WW-Geo pattern and charted the following weekly chart.

snapshot


Recent high 778.85 in June is Point-3 of larger WW in purple and is the take profit level 1-4 line of the WW in blue of 2014 bear market.

The retracement back to 465 of last week is according to your rules, in that reversal from Point-5" offers a high probability of reversal and validation of hitting price level of Point-3.
See the WW in black. The 465 level is also a 0.618 retracement from the 778.85 top in June.

Now we are forming the last zigzag of an expanding ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) in green.

So according to this WW we might test the November 2013 high and form a new all time high. The leg from the January 2015 low of 152.40 to the new all time high is a complex zigzag structure.
So we form a complex, lengthy Point-2 to 3 connection to a new all time high.

I'm interested in what you think because in your latest update you expect that the 309.90 target below, according to your model get hit.

Your feedback is highly appreciated. Thank you for your updates.

Kind regards.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
3 months ago
@eYou1 - First and foremost, I very much appreciate the distinctive, point-by-point analysis you have laid out on the Geo. This is very much how I would have expanded the analysis, so it makes it very easy to follow, despite the complexity that would otherwise be forming to anyone's eyes.

Second, I agree with your analysis, that by the sole dependence on price analysis (aided by the overlaid pattern analysis), one might expect a retracement from recent highs to Point-3 (BLACK), which appears to have already occurred. So, one might tend to expect further rallying to occur from current levels.

However, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains expectantly bearish - This Model does not use price, volume, news or fundamentals, and is purely driven by quantitative data manifested as fractals. The current outcome of the Model suggests a higher probability of a down-turn than an up-turn.

Now, mind you that we are resting only in the realm of probabilities, and that price or not, Model or not, all remains a matter of weighing possibilities against probabilities, which is really all that I can go by, as neither my directional opinion nor my bias will ever count in my analyses and forecasts - What comes out of the Model is what is, until proven otherwise.

Over the years, I have had the chance to test my opinion and bias against the Model by taking live trades since I felt that the market direction and strength (predictive analysis) and extent (forecast) appeared so ridiculously far off to me that it could not possibly "get there". However, I have lost too many times at this second-guessing that I decided to simply and mechanically report and put my faith in it - not something I recommend to anyone, as I would expect that any good trader would do his/her own due diligence. But for the sake of having to compare what I think and what the Model "says", I have taken the quiet position and waited for further confirmations outside of the Model, even if this meant to come late into the trade.

In terms of confirmations OUTSIDE of the Model, I recommend looking at structural analysis (i.e.: looking at breaking of recent/prior highs and lows). In addition, a "total" analysis of Elliott Wave would be a good idea, since the current price action might cause myopia as we might risk to look too closely at the wave counts.

My position in those terms has remained bearish on the basis that the impulse that carved the highest historical high (across the year 2013), has been followed by what appears to be a protracted consolidation (large a-b-c across the year 2014) as a first A-Wave, followed by a B-Wave across the year 2015 into recent June 2016 (expressed by your points 2-3-4-5'' in BLACK).

So, expectedly, a conclusive C-Wave remains afoot to the DOWN-side, even if speculative, as there is yet no other price action that exposes a clear impulse development to the UP-side for now, and no clear counter-argument to the current 3-3-3 pattern still unfolding.

In any case, this remains a very challenging and interest object of curiosity for the Predictive/Forecasting Model, as Bitstamp has not followed the surest path, and the temptation to follow a reasonable geometric pathway has been too often proven wrong by the Model, retrospectively. So, as I remain bound to second-guess the Model (by virtue of having to question the Model in a constant exercise of its refinement), I would love to see your geometry-based scenario unfold in your favor, and see the Model proven wrong, so that it can be "tweaked" to its smallest detail.

In the 4-Hour chart I posted recently, I marked 666.02 as a possible ultimate level, based on a reciprocal ab=cd symmetry, against 645.00 as a probable target to the upside. I would chance that IF price were to transgress BOTH of these levels and continue above the 775.00 level, then the Model would stand little to no chance to remain credible as far as this bearish scenario goes.

Time is a good teller, and that is the story I will have to wait for patiently.

Much appreciate sharing your thoughts and detailing that analysis.

Keep posting and always assume that the Model is wrong - This remains the only way to improve on a system and keep all subjectivity out of the trades.

Have a very safe week-end,

Regards,


David Alcindor
Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
3 months ago
Thank you David for your reply and analysis.

I agree with you that this double zigzag completion to the June 2016 high could also open the prospect of another large bearish reversal that could result in 309-245 area and later retest the Jan 2015 low or make new lower low.
+1 Reply
bitsunrise
4 months ago
Thanks for the updates David!
+1 Reply
eYou1
3 months ago
Hi David,

Thank you for the update.

Do you expect at the 660.02 level a REVERSAL or RETRACEMENT, because I remember from your methodology that the yellow color indicates that the probability of getting hit is intermediate, and if hit, it will likely cause a temporary RERACEMENT in the order of 0.382 to 0.618.

So, is the 660.02 level a TG-1, a QUANT-Target to define future R/S levels, or a QUAL-target (i.e.: TG-Hi or TG-Lo)?

I'm a little confused because you talk about a REVERSAL ("High-probability reversal at the 645/666 range ... Watch for 660.02") but use the color yellow here in the chart.

Thank you, David.

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
3 months ago
Hello @eYou1 - This is a high-probability reversal. I did not define the target but only the probable value within the BLUE 645/666 range. This range represents a high-probability reversal area.

David
Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
3 months ago
Something like this, David?

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou1
3 months ago
@eYou1 - Look for these potential internal waves:

5-3-5 count within the COR segment, correcting from a recent IMP:
snapshot


David
Reply
eYou1 4xForecaster
3 months ago
Thank you David for this chart. I understand. Kind regards.
Reply
kurta007 4xForecaster
2 months ago
Hi David,any update ?
Reply
taxfreelt 4xForecaster
a month ago
Hi David. Interested in your CROW Service. Wrote email to your email specified in "about" section. No answer. How I can contact you?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO taxfreelt
a month ago
Hello, @taxfreelt - Best is to contact my assistant, Ms. Katrina Roberts at admin@KADAInstitute.com for information, disclaimer and application to the service. This is a retainer service that covers 34 Forex pairs, as well as Forex-impacting commodity predictive analyses/forecasting, plus indices, ETFs, stocks - All information comes with complimentary educational material, reads and links, as well as lessons on basic technical analyses.

It defines strategic forecast ("STRATFOR"), such as entries (aggressive and conservative), initial stop-loss (traders are experienced, so left to define their own SL and trailing ST based on their own tolerance of risk and management thereof), targets (very-high/high/moderate/low probability targets, as well as trade profile (potential pips and RR value), all kept visible on chart - Check out the #CROWSignalService hashtag on Twitter for recent performance.

Eventually, this service will come hosted on TRADINGVIEW once they are able to host it. So, with this in sight, I am starting it off site with the intention to keep all data and chart pertinent to TradingView.

If interested, contact Katrina at that email and she will take care of that aspect of the business, while I take care of surveilling the various financial markets.

David Alcindor
Reply
taxfreelt 4xForecaster
a month ago
I wrote to this email two times, no answer. Third time minute ago
Reply
4xForecaster PRO taxfreelt
a month ago
@taxfree - So sorry about this undue delay.

On weekends, as well as early morning or early afternoon, you might not get much answer due to the demand and that she reviews and processes all requests one by one. Across 5 social sites (Twitter, TradingView, LinkedIn, Facebook's 4xForecaster page and StockTwits, I am humbled and still surprised to have accumulated over 16,000 readers and followers of my analyses - When a few contact her, she is easily overwhelmed, and I have no intention to turn this service into a commercial production. All lesson are taught live one-on-one, and all emails are eventually answered by me on a non-script material. That's the way I like it.

I will make sure to contact her to let her know about your attempts.

David Alcindor
Reply
limsta 4xForecaster
2 months ago
Now that we reached the 655 level, is this the end of the run? Any update?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO limsta
a month ago
Hello @limsta, I have written a predictive analysis/forecasting about bitcoin, using a composite approach (BTCe + BitStamp + BitFinex exchanges combined in an equal-weighted chart) - I cannot advertise it here, as TRADINGVIEW has strict policy to not use this platform and draw clients off site. Feel free to contact me by private messaging if you want to hear more about how to get to this commodity report.

Thank you,

David Alcindor
Reply
noto1235
3 months ago
thanks for the update David can u plz explain what r u implying with " 145/666 range ... Watch for 660.02"
and can u plz look into LTCBTC ratio and LTC USD for BTC-E exchange
both seem to form a bottom ( or should I say a double bottom around 0.006 and 3.22 respectively)
I remember when u posted an update for LTC before it was very helpful kind regards :)
thanks ...
+1 Reply
noto1235 noto1235
3 months ago
oh I understand about BTC analysis now ...kindly update LTC too thanks
Reply
4xForecaster PRO noto1235
a month ago
Hello @noto1235 - Thank you for your query and kind compliments. Because of the demand, I have since responded to specific request by providing a paid service. Feel free to contact me by PM if you have any specific request on a chart, exchange, timeframe. Feel free also to share your chart, or if you feel confident, let me review your position. My analyses are based on quantitative data using fractal events within non-price fields - It is called CROW Code (CROW stands for Constant Rescaling Of Wavelets, where wavelets are simply fractal manifestations that allows the method to define direction and strength of the underlying market - that's the predictive analysis part - as well as extent of price move - that's the forecasting part of the analysis. Feel free to check recent performance using the #CROWSignalService hashtag on Twitter.

Thank you,

David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster
Reply
bitsunrise
2 months ago
Hi David! You've just nailed that mate :)
+1 Reply
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