4 Phases of the Market Cycle Showing Its Colors

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
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Looking back at when the first run up of Bitcoin prices started happening I can see clearly the 4 phases of a market cycle.The double top was a clear distribution phase signal. Currently we are in the mark down phase with prices that may fall another 50-60 (possibly 500 or upper 400s) before seeing the bottom. Once at the true bottom expect a run up in prices. The accumulation phase is when we have those who have been long every since it became bearish are likely going to sell.

There were a few mini mark up and accumulation phases as is clearly seen around 12/15/2013. Which lead to a mini distribution phase a few weeks later in the beginning of January.

The Fib Retracement shows many times where the prices either touched or tried to make it slightly above. During the mark down phrase we can clearly see that a channel had formed keeping the prices from hitting the fib. Right now we are just barely past the 23.6% fib retracement and may or may not continue on down. It is possible to retrace all the way back down to the previous ATL during this period.

If shorting set a stop loss at around 4% in case it does break all the way back down. I would expect it to be a slow trend downward for the next couple of days. Were it may start to range a little before heading up to the 23.6% fib line. Timing this one is going to be hard with all the Mt. Gox news keeping prices lower.
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