Bitcoin - Theoretically In Free Fall Zone

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
784 12 8

There was no breakout above 300.

There is now break below the 1- month build support.

Theoretically it can accelerate down without constraint.

Potential Target if acceleration: 160/100.

Hi yaka, i also follow your trading views for S&P, and Gold. You have a huge knowledge and experince. Big respect. i was not agree with your previous work about bitcoing, but this time i agree. probably we will see 2 digits with bitcoin. i have 2 questions 1) lets put aside technical analysis, what do you think about bitcoin technology? do you think it will be a player in financial system? 2) according to your experiences when can we see under 200 or under 100? + - 1 month
YaKa kemal.erdog
no clue about Bitcoin durability - The concept could be useful as an electronic currency alternative.. The fact that it moves is probably detrimental (when price goes down). There is a catch 22. It is known because it moved up and could fail because it goes down...

My only view is: trying to say bitcoin should go up because it is useful is as good as saying crude oil should go up because it is useful....

Re timing, i dont know.. if it falls, the timing is probalby 2months per leg down..
+3 Reply
Stoch RSI shows OS, what we see here may be false breakdown. Although I would like to to earn some extra BTC by getting short at the moment also, it seem very unlikely to me that the price should go below 200.
The breakout has to occur this year as the top line reaches 0 in October 15.
It's going below 100 very soon.
YaKa Biff_Tannen
The price seems to say that.. maybe 90 and it would rebound to 170 again if the dynamics carry on... 55 on the next correction...

I am not sure when it will get of the cone but if even if the appropriate price is much lower, it will get of the cone soon or later and the pressure will abate then.
+2 Reply
Under 100 there's a lot of buying interest by short term speculators and price can go fast towards 200 again. Then another sell off will take place. This is a very cyclical pattern for Bitcoin. I have also another theory. There are a lot of people that bought at previous highs hoping for a break out. They will sell too if price comes close to previous highs giving up hope. The same goes for Gold, it has many similarities in behavior.
+1 Reply
YaKa Biff_Tannen
My opinion:
- No short sellers. Little room for squeezes then.
- There are people who are long. There is hope and pain.
- I think the buyers are getting less numerous as it goes down. My take is whoever had interest got involved already and whoever was not is probably going to stay on the side line.

Why do you think people would come buy it at 100?

Although gold has similarities in the fact that it depends on people trust, gold has proved itself over centuries and you can derive some macro behaviour with Rates/FX etc...
It must be under(!) 100. Why 100? This is where Bitcoin have staid for a reasonable time before the big bubble. Is it a fair price? This could also be 1 dollar ;-)

Gold had also a bubble phase and price did behave in a similar way after this phase.
Gold isn't of course the same as Bitcoin if you look at other aspects.
I think after some further correction and maybe fundamental changes Gold will shine again. Bitcoin will never see 1000 again..
+1 Reply
YaKa Biff_Tannen
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