www.notion.so/nicthe...4a85875355de97743213
*April 2020*
## Geopolitical
Nation states are beginning crackdowns. Emerging markets specifically are guarding against capital flights. This is not only a nail in bitcoin's coffin, but a sign of a larger macro issue (see (www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qTOWuL7...)).
Turkey, Saudi, Korea...
(t.co/NbBHD96WiS?amp=1)
(twitter.com/FirstSqu.../1385923306067402755)
(www.koreatimes.co.kr...1/04/367_307358.html)
(t.co/dCO9oiHpwc?amp=1)
## China is making moves
Some theorize that bitcoin is a financial weapon designed to destroy American capital markets. "Hang the capitalist with their own rope". Recently we are noticing china making moves to end their production of bitcoin (hashing) while promoting the 'asset class'. This is *sell side* behavior*.*
> Always trust a snake by how it moves, their tongue is forked!
(twitter.com/Cardania.../1385214140365615104)
(twitter.com/WuBlockc.../1383798033679224836)
## Maximum Retail Participation
As a friend once told me :
> "The top will come when we have maximum retail buy in. Then it will crash, and everyone will forget about bitcoin, even me".
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...e426935/Untitled.png)
Google Trends actually misses *most* of the internet used my the retail market. Things on social media, specifically TikTok and Instagram are totally missed. That said, the number of guru's on social media is at all time highs.
(www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihch0V5Y...)
Not only do we have young investors maximumly invested, but, we also have older investors and institutional firms invested via the bitcoin etf's and wall st. trading desks. We have both a generation of bag holders and the gullible pensioners fully invested. They come last in the financial pecking order, *who are they going to sell to*?
(twitter.com/EricBalc.../1385601842705571840)
Lastly, we have the infamous "Dash to Trash". The is a phenomena in equity markets as well, with a huge run up in low-cap speculative companies ending a a epic blow off top. Only in this case we see a huge run in 'shit coins' like doge; an coin *corrupted by design*.
## Liquidity Traps
Most bitcoin is transacted on 'illegal' overseas exchanges. These exchanges offer 1000x leverage and savings accounts with +50% yields. This is a recipe for a systemic collapse via margin calls. Forced selling seems inevitable. Moreover the savings account is a 'small hole' which will exacerbate the panic, trapping investors with a *false hope of security*.
(twitter.com/Fxh...335692779704320?s=19)
The savings accounts traps 'investors' who are locked into the high yield account. This rate is maintained by loaning the money to other investors who speculate on crypto using the beforementioned leverage. This is an feedback loop with diminishing returns and a predictable outcome.
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...c79d0b3/Untitled.png)
## Technical cycle
The popular 'Pi Cycle Top' indicator has signaled a top
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...713dba6/Untitled.png)
## Caviat
The counterpetition to this is three main points.
1) Bitcoin is deflationary and has natural resiliency.
2) 'Willy bots' continue to push the market higher. (see SEC vs BFX)
3) Teather continues to pump the market. (Air buying air). (see SEC vs BFX)
### Excerpts from SEC vs BFX
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...4584aa7/Untitled.png)
### ...
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...d59b6d5/Untitled.png)
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...b2f1754/Untitled.png)
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...2dd94fd/Untitled.png)
## Conclusion
This is not financial advise and can not be... because Bitcoin is not a financial product, hahahaha.
Lastly, I do not "*hate*" bitcoin or crypto. I can even make a case for intrinsic value, and think it may survive this downturn. That said, overthinking like that will kill you.
*April 2020*
## Geopolitical
Nation states are beginning crackdowns. Emerging markets specifically are guarding against capital flights. This is not only a nail in bitcoin's coffin, but a sign of a larger macro issue (see (www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qTOWuL7...)).
Turkey, Saudi, Korea...
(t.co/NbBHD96WiS?amp=1)
(twitter.com/FirstSqu.../1385923306067402755)
(www.koreatimes.co.kr...1/04/367_307358.html)
(t.co/dCO9oiHpwc?amp=1)
## China is making moves
Some theorize that bitcoin is a financial weapon designed to destroy American capital markets. "Hang the capitalist with their own rope". Recently we are noticing china making moves to end their production of bitcoin (hashing) while promoting the 'asset class'. This is *sell side* behavior*.*
> Always trust a snake by how it moves, their tongue is forked!
(twitter.com/Cardania.../1385214140365615104)
(twitter.com/WuBlockc.../1383798033679224836)
## Maximum Retail Participation
As a friend once told me :
> "The top will come when we have maximum retail buy in. Then it will crash, and everyone will forget about bitcoin, even me".
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...e426935/Untitled.png)
Google Trends actually misses *most* of the internet used my the retail market. Things on social media, specifically TikTok and Instagram are totally missed. That said, the number of guru's on social media is at all time highs.
(www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihch0V5Y...)
Not only do we have young investors maximumly invested, but, we also have older investors and institutional firms invested via the bitcoin etf's and wall st. trading desks. We have both a generation of bag holders and the gullible pensioners fully invested. They come last in the financial pecking order, *who are they going to sell to*?
(twitter.com/EricBalc.../1385601842705571840)
Lastly, we have the infamous "Dash to Trash". The is a phenomena in equity markets as well, with a huge run up in low-cap speculative companies ending a a epic blow off top. Only in this case we see a huge run in 'shit coins' like doge; an coin *corrupted by design*.
## Liquidity Traps
Most bitcoin is transacted on 'illegal' overseas exchanges. These exchanges offer 1000x leverage and savings accounts with +50% yields. This is a recipe for a systemic collapse via margin calls. Forced selling seems inevitable. Moreover the savings account is a 'small hole' which will exacerbate the panic, trapping investors with a *false hope of security*.
(twitter.com/Fxh...335692779704320?s=19)
The savings accounts traps 'investors' who are locked into the high yield account. This rate is maintained by loaning the money to other investors who speculate on crypto using the beforementioned leverage. This is an feedback loop with diminishing returns and a predictable outcome.
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...c79d0b3/Untitled.png)
## Technical cycle
The popular 'Pi Cycle Top' indicator has signaled a top
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...713dba6/Untitled.png)
## Caviat
The counterpetition to this is three main points.
1) Bitcoin is deflationary and has natural resiliency.
2) 'Willy bots' continue to push the market higher. (see SEC vs BFX)
3) Teather continues to pump the market. (Air buying air). (see SEC vs BFX)
### Excerpts from SEC vs BFX
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...4584aa7/Untitled.png)
### ...
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...d59b6d5/Untitled.png)
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...b2f1754/Untitled.png)
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...2dd94fd/Untitled.png)
## Conclusion
This is not financial advise and can not be... because Bitcoin is not a financial product, hahahaha.
Lastly, I do not "*hate*" bitcoin or crypto. I can even make a case for intrinsic value, and think it may survive this downturn. That said, overthinking like that will kill you.