You can see that T5 is a confluence/intersection zone for 3 pitchfork channels, a green horizontal resistance line, D1 EMA 200 and RSI Bands. We're overbought on all TFs, not just the daily, maxed out on RSI Bands, so the only way is down. We will consolidate/move sideways for a few days until the futures expire (between 7500-7800), then have a some sort of a sell-off. Another small move upwards to touch/break EMA200 and the upper channel of the triangle and pullback quickly with a long wick on top is possible after RSI cools off. We didn't get overbought on D1 even in April, we won't now. In 2014 we went as high as D1 RSI 73, that's why I consider this last leg a possibility. And just now we also got a double top at 7800 supporting a pullback.
Good Luck!
This in not a financial advice, please use at your own risk! Confirm or Disprove using other ideas.
Good Luck!
This in not a financial advice, please use at your own risk! Confirm or Disprove using other ideas.
Comment:
Quick Pitchfork analysis of the 2014 Bear Market: we can plot 2 pitchforks. Looks like we're in point 2, recovering from the death cross on a daily. Historically we went max D1 RSI 73, broke the red pitchfork channel, EMA100 and touched EMA200 and the supply line, then bounced and dropped. Even if we are somehow in point 3, past the supply line, there will be a sell-off before the up trend starts. Note how the up trend has started only after we managed to break both blue and red pitchfork channels. Same thing will likely happen in 2018. Watch RSI levels pitchfork channels, and major EMAs.
Comment:
Here's H1. We're losing momentum, start to look for RSI/EWO divergences soon. We could reach 7950 to complete wave (v) of Y/C then drop. After the futures expire there will be no pumps, and any bull run could be a trap - we will slowly decline or flush. Bitcoin will probably stay above 7000 until August 10 on hopes of ETF.
Comment:
Here's what's gonna happen in a few hours.
- We had an extreme H4 RSI 89 recently making any subsequent move up pale in comparison and causing RSI divergence by definition.
- red RSI Bands for RSI 89 shows that only touching 8900 will invalidate it and that's not happening any time soon.
- You can see the same divergence on EWO. Although the momentum on H4 EWO is rising, in the next few hours a smaller hump will appear on EWO. This divergence will not simply go away.
- Note that we have moved up $2000 already (5800 to 7800 which is more than enough for a pump)
- This last wave should be wave 3/5/C according to EWO.
It can't be wave 5, because this whole move is not a 12345 up trend (1 and 4 are overlapping). And the saddle on green EWO histogram retraces > 90, so it does not qualify for wave 4 => it is still a wave 3/C/Y. So, either wave 4 or abc correction is coming due to divergence and reaching 1.618 of wave 1/A (7800)
- We can have an up trend 123 only in case of a double bottom on Bitstamp (yellow spot). And breaking 6950 will invalidate the trend (overlapping 1 and 4). There's no double bottom on other exchanges, so this whole up trend premise is hanging by a thread. We can only have abc/wxy for all other exchanges.
- Now, if this last wave is 3 consisting of i-v waves of a smaller degree, the saddle must be wave ii (we've established that it does not qualify for any degree wave iv/4). So, we must have waves i, ii and start of iii in wave 3 with target for wave iii = 100% of wave i = 8850. But now wave i is larger than wave 1 of a larger degree, making this a forced count. In conclusion, this is not a wave 3, it can only be an abc or wxy upwards correction and we're done correcting.
- And it's not a leading wedge due to its structure and size.
- We had an extreme H4 RSI 89 recently making any subsequent move up pale in comparison and causing RSI divergence by definition.
- red RSI Bands for RSI 89 shows that only touching 8900 will invalidate it and that's not happening any time soon.
- You can see the same divergence on EWO. Although the momentum on H4 EWO is rising, in the next few hours a smaller hump will appear on EWO. This divergence will not simply go away.
- Note that we have moved up $2000 already (5800 to 7800 which is more than enough for a pump)
- This last wave should be wave 3/5/C according to EWO.
It can't be wave 5, because this whole move is not a 12345 up trend (1 and 4 are overlapping). And the saddle on green EWO histogram retraces > 90, so it does not qualify for wave 4 => it is still a wave 3/C/Y. So, either wave 4 or abc correction is coming due to divergence and reaching 1.618 of wave 1/A (7800)
- We can have an up trend 123 only in case of a double bottom on Bitstamp (yellow spot). And breaking 6950 will invalidate the trend (overlapping 1 and 4). There's no double bottom on other exchanges, so this whole up trend premise is hanging by a thread. We can only have abc/wxy for all other exchanges.
- Now, if this last wave is 3 consisting of i-v waves of a smaller degree, the saddle must be wave ii (we've established that it does not qualify for any degree wave iv/4). So, we must have waves i, ii and start of iii in wave 3 with target for wave iii = 100% of wave i = 8850. But now wave i is larger than wave 1 of a larger degree, making this a forced count. In conclusion, this is not a wave 3, it can only be an abc or wxy upwards correction and we're done correcting.
- And it's not a leading wedge due to its structure and size.
Comment:
Similarities with April's pump:
1. questionable double bottom (yellow spot)
2. H1 and H4 golden crosses
3. 5 waves up with unclear structure 12345 or ABC
4. overthrow above the upper trend channel in wave 5
5. breached 50% of prev high swing, major resistance/psycho 9000, supply line
6. stopped at 61.8% of prev high swing, also 4.618 of wave 1, -0.618 algo target, also wave 5 = 100% of wave 3, EMAs are fanning up
7. divergence, loss of momentum on H4 EWO
8. $3250 move up
Result: pullback to EMA50, under 9000, last push to 10000, down trend in a pitchfork channel
1. questionable double bottom (yellow spot)
2. H1 and H4 golden crosses
3. 5 waves up with unclear structure 12345 or ABC
4. overthrow above the upper trend channel in wave 5
5. breached 50% of prev high swing, major resistance/psycho 9000, supply line
6. stopped at 61.8% of prev high swing, also 4.618 of wave 1, -0.618 algo target, also wave 5 = 100% of wave 3, EMAs are fanning up
7. divergence, loss of momentum on H4 EWO
8. $3250 move up
Result: pullback to EMA50, under 9000, last push to 10000, down trend in a pitchfork channel
Comment:
Today's chart: P1-P5 are for reference with April's chart
Bull targets:
target 1: 8550-8600 major resistance (and wave v = 100% of wave i, and -0.618 algo target)
target 2: 8750-8800 (wave (v) = 100% of wave (i), 2.618 of wave 1, 5.618 of P1, 100% of P3, and -0.618 algo target)
Bull Scenario: we hit both targets 1,2 in wave 3, retrace to 8000 in wave 4, go up in wave 5, break 9000 to confirm the up trend for a month (golden cross on H4 on avg gives us about 1-2 months of general up trend. Up to 5-6 months in a raging bull market)
Breaking major prev swing resistance at 61.8% (8350) will shift bias to bullish. Right now we are neutral, shifted from bearish since we managed to break 1.618 of wave A (7800). We still have room to go up after RSI cools off and before the divergence on H4 will force us down.
Bear Scenario: we start declining to EMA50 like in April, then go below 8000 to the yellow support zone at 7400, make another attempt to break 8000, bounce and continue down trend
Bull targets:
target 1: 8550-8600 major resistance (and wave v = 100% of wave i, and -0.618 algo target)
target 2: 8750-8800 (wave (v) = 100% of wave (i), 2.618 of wave 1, 5.618 of P1, 100% of P3, and -0.618 algo target)
Bull Scenario: we hit both targets 1,2 in wave 3, retrace to 8000 in wave 4, go up in wave 5, break 9000 to confirm the up trend for a month (golden cross on H4 on avg gives us about 1-2 months of general up trend. Up to 5-6 months in a raging bull market)
Breaking major prev swing resistance at 61.8% (8350) will shift bias to bullish. Right now we are neutral, shifted from bearish since we managed to break 1.618 of wave A (7800). We still have room to go up after RSI cools off and before the divergence on H4 will force us down.
Bear Scenario: we start declining to EMA50 like in April, then go below 8000 to the yellow support zone at 7400, make another attempt to break 8000, bounce and continue down trend
Comment:
I think I we're gonna drop below 8000, there will be no wave iv as the death cross on M15 is looming. We could try to ease in and make the 50 and 200 EMAs widen, of course. If there will be a wave v, it better starts now at 50% retracement, EMA200. The Market makers are done with the pump, have exited the market with profit, will keep it around 8000 till the futures expire.
- Sell Volume is rising across waves and within each wave as the price declines => correction is not over. There's no definitive engulfment by the bulls.
- Bear Momentum is rising on EWO, there's still room to make a larger/same size hump invalidate/postpone the divergence
- EMA bear cross on H1 ichimoku
- M15, H1 OBV/PVT declining - bearish.
Bear targets:
- 7950 (61.8% of wave iii, 2.618 of wave (1), 100% of wave 1 of c, -0.618 algo target)
- 7750 (3.618 of wave (1), 1.618 of wave 1 of c)
- Sell Volume is rising across waves and within each wave as the price declines => correction is not over. There's no definitive engulfment by the bulls.
- Bear Momentum is rising on EWO, there's still room to make a larger/same size hump invalidate/postpone the divergence
- EMA bear cross on H1 ichimoku
- M15, H1 OBV/PVT declining - bearish.
Bear targets:
- 7950 (61.8% of wave iii, 2.618 of wave (1), 100% of wave 1 of c, -0.618 algo target)
- 7750 (3.618 of wave (1), 1.618 of wave 1 of c)
Comment:
We did not reach bearish targets, so the trend is stll strong. This seems to be a Wyckoff accum range. We just had a SOS, the next move will be ST up to around 8400, then a creek down through the futures, possibly following by a spring up with target 8900. It makes sense to have a consolidation up here, then move higher up. The bulls could be back in town soon. So bull target 8600-8700 still stands for the next few days. Watch out for D1 SMA200 at 8700.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_67ucK_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_67ucK_...
Comment:
Ok, we have wave v in on top at 8500. This seems to be wave 4 or ii of 3 in progress, not wave iv of a smaller degree. We have hit 7850 bear target and just touched D1 EMA200, 50% of prev high, 100% of wave A and 2.618% of wave (1) of abc/wxy and also the pitchfork median line. We're already oversold on M15 and H1, and this is only a 23.6% retracement of an alleged wave 3. There's no way we go deeper today at least without a bounce back to 8000 and above. The futures chart only touched the upper wicks at 7800, so we may go around 7750, not 38.2%, not below 7700. At least for now
Comment:
CME Futures have expired at 8250. Bulls have quickly overcome the bears on the way down. Seems that we're still going up with targets 8650-8700 and 8900 (100 and 1.618 of wave i and SMA200). H4 EWO shows that Wave 4 is in. Bitcoin just had a spring with a retest, and now is in SOS.
W1 SMA50 8400 is an important level to break, will give us more bullish momentum. 8550 and 8850, pitchfork down channel and RSI bands down channel are next resistance levels.
Bullish:
Bullish engulfment on D1 and Monthly
Golden Cross on M15, EMAs curving up on H1
OBV is rising and shows up trend on all TFs
We have breached from the down channel (bull pennant)
RSI is not oversold on all TFs there's room for a move higher
RSI Bands H1 max 8400, H4 max 8550, D1 max
Bull pennant's targets take us close to 9000.
Momentum is rising.
huge bull wick at the bottom of H4 candle
we're back above 8000 and the pitchfork median line
We have just finished wave i and will probably correct to 23.6% (8150) or 38.2% (8100) (H1 EMA 50) in wave ii first, then smash 8500 in wave iii as part of wave 5 of a larger degree.
MACD bull cross on W1, on H4 soon.
Declining bull volume is the only problem, could see some selling tomorrow.
Therefore we can have another leg of correction to drop to around 7700 and retest SMA200 in a couple of days, still bullish overall.
W1 SMA50 8400 is an important level to break, will give us more bullish momentum. 8550 and 8850, pitchfork down channel and RSI bands down channel are next resistance levels.
Bullish:
Bullish engulfment on D1 and Monthly
Golden Cross on M15, EMAs curving up on H1
OBV is rising and shows up trend on all TFs
We have breached from the down channel (bull pennant)
RSI is not oversold on all TFs there's room for a move higher
RSI Bands H1 max 8400, H4 max 8550, D1 max
Bull pennant's targets take us close to 9000.
Momentum is rising.
huge bull wick at the bottom of H4 candle
we're back above 8000 and the pitchfork median line
We have just finished wave i and will probably correct to 23.6% (8150) or 38.2% (8100) (H1 EMA 50) in wave ii first, then smash 8500 in wave iii as part of wave 5 of a larger degree.
MACD bull cross on W1, on H4 soon.
Declining bull volume is the only problem, could see some selling tomorrow.
Therefore we can have another leg of correction to drop to around 7700 and retest SMA200 in a couple of days, still bullish overall.