As indicated in the comment made following the release of the reversal signal:
"Cautionary Note: I would NOT trade this until a candle closes above the overhead resistance. Right now, the analysis has turned , but it is up to the trader to define his rule of engagement. Added confirmation won't hurt. Cheers! David Alcindor, MOD "
What every trader has to come to term with (and this may be true of the newbies and less patient ones), is that institutional players who may or may not start participating in this exchange (See this WSJ piece hinting at insitutional interest: " NY's finance regulator is taking applications for BitLicense, the first government oversight of #bitcoin: http://on.wsj.com/1fpzyJd ") have several advantages, not the least of which is time. In fact, they may be more aware of Warren Buffett's quote than any one else (paraphrasing here):
"The market is an instrument of wealth transfer from the impatient to the patient traders"
The reason I am writing this piece is because, as price has posted a significant technical event in terms of a high-probability reversal confirmation (using the breakout of the momental channel and my proprietary predictive analysis and forecasting strategic system), there is now cause to pause, deep a little easy and assess the situation skywards - Which is what I recently did in the prior analysis (here: ).
At this point, expect loading activities from both the retail and the institutional sides, expressed in a likely protracted consolidation, within a range which I have defined as the channel (just broken) and the "EAGLE" range, whose lowest value should represent the lowest tolerable floor at 554.65, below which bulls should lay their horns down and done their ursine outfit.
Incidentally, this value lines up per-fect-ly well with the PRIOR "TG-1 = 554.64 - 04 MAR" level, which was defined 7 days ago, way before price would submit its data to our predictive system. Hence, I believe that if there was to be a serious consolidation, an ultimately support would take hold at this 554.64 level.
For the time being, the signal remains intact and above targets are unchanged as well. Expect to see price forming a base in the technical range defined above.
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & Market Forecasting
PS: If you liked the analysis, feel free to give it a "Thumb Up" and pass of a friendly referral to friends interested in occult market mathematics and hidden geometries. All targets generated are defined by non-price means, and confirmed by either proprietary patterns (Euclid, Janus, Great White, Deep ), or other well known patterns. However, we concentrate mainly on , and occasional Bats, to complement our predictive analysis and forecasting - Cheers, David Alcindor.
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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
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I will be taking a long-awaited vacation. The analyses I provided for the BTCUSD (Bitstamp) should make sense to the average trader understanding support/resistance, and able to chart the cryptocurrency for himself - I say this because I trust that you are able to reproduce the numbered ranges, support and resistance values I have applied in my chart, and incorporate them in your own trading plan.
To be sure, let's take the time to ascertain certain terms and definitions used recently:
1 - A break below the 554.65 level could possibly turn my predictive system back to a neutral-to-bearish stance, whereas a break-and-close-above ("BACA") the extension level of the upper border of that declining channel should add further credence to a bullish scenario.
2 - When I refer to a directional bias, I typically refer to my own (human) gestalt, as opposed to my system's sign (early but unconfirmed directional event) and signal (usually a directional event that received a algorythmic "IF ..., THEN ... " confirmation. For instance, in this case, my "human" directional bias is temporarily bearish in favor of a decline to the 554.65 level, whereas my "algo-based, objective" system indicates a plain and simple "it's decided to go up" directional signal, which is simply confirmed, sealed and that's that.
As an aside here, remember this: "Plan you trade, then trade your plan", which is what that signal allows me to do. While it may have taken me years (been trading since 1997) to develop an objective (don't have to think about it, as I know what the conditions are), trust-worthy (back tested, foreward tested and earning off of it) and conditional (learned that it is best for me to trade between Tuesday and Thursday New York and European sessions), I know use it cautiously, against the backdrop of other technical supports (typically not revealed in the charts, but I share what I can ... It still causes me to stick my neck out there, and at times, it can be nerve-racking).
Okay, enough rambling for now. I will keep an eye out, but will most certainly spend time vacationing (not taken any vacation for the past 6 years, yet that's right: We work hard here in America!).
PS: Here is the link to the new chart where the bullish analysis was posted: . Feel free to share, and stay tuned to forecasts and signals off of Twitter by following my alias: @4xForecaser.
This has been a long trip (and I'm not referring to the vacation that is STILL under way). I decided to take a peek at the charts while I can.
So far, so good, as price action has continued to move in the way of the original predictive analysis and forecasting (here is the most recent one: ... And this one where the current retracement was predicted: https://www.tradingview.com/v/Vp5ciYQj/).
At this point, there is nothing else to add, except filling up the gas tank and continue to consume the vacation.
I will chime back in whenever possible or as soon as relevant technical events occur.
Feel free to share my Twitter alias:
Thank you for your kind Twitter support and friendly referral through colleagues and friends.
Predictive Analysis &Forecasting
- All signals, analyses and forecasts are for educational purposes. Do your own due diligence. Use TradingChart.com to share your analyses with me or friendly traders on the site.