I thought I would take some time to bring this community up to speed with my perception of BTCe's current price action and my expectations going forward. As regular readers of my blog and viewers of my videos will no doubt already know, I was on the verge of taking a long position in BTCe with a nice move through the $629.60 level. Of course, that move never came and I am basically still on the sideline. Interestingly though, that bias may have limited my 'profit exposure'. By not considering short setups I limited my participation. It always seems like the ones you let slip through your fingers are always the huge winners....doh!
Anyway, back to the story...recently, I posted on the site a study of last year's inverted and compared it to this year potential one. It suggested a test of BTC'e Daily OTE (long) zone shouldn't be too unexpected. Additionally, I was left with a feeling that the current BTC market feels very complacent and that a good shakeout felt a bit overdue. Couple that realization with my recent concerns about the daily price chart (see videos for more on that) and short ideas are starting to make more sense. So today, while looking at the chart I decided to lay a BoT setup study over the chart and see what kind of levels it produced. It was at that moment I realized I really had the wrong bias and short positions were already established and working towards their targets. What confirmed the idea for me was the fact that I repeatedly have mentioned recently that the triple top established just a few days ago would be 'the tell' for me and that it represented a brick wall of resistance. The next logical step (which I missed) was, why not short against it? As you can see, the BoT's Short entry level just so happens to be that exact trade....bingo! Considering reward to risk is 3:1 I would be more than happy to take this bet all day long, even if the odds are only 50/50. I am unfortunately not in this trade, should we rally back up to the original short entry level and produce a selling candle setup, I will consider it...
The levels are fairly well explained on the chart but if you would like to learn more about how I trade and the various models I run, please feel free to either contact me here at TradingView, follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor or drop by our Bitcoin themed website http://www.therationalinvestor.co
Thanks again all and I hope my levels, setups and areas of interest of are benefit,
I think ultimately, the bullish consolidation off the entire $400 -> $670 move left a lot of longs that were late to the party stranded in a dead market with piling swap costs. That's why the bullish BoT failed in slow motion. These next few candles will be an interesting test for the willpower of the bulls more than the bears. If we see a cascade of flip-flopping, structural levels in the mid 500's could be broken down with relative ease. Barring that, I think this ship is ready to hold water and sail.
Edit: cleaner chart