As you can see by the two descending yellow , since the ATH in December we have been stuck in a that we have not been able to break out of yet. Thankfully, by looking at the narrower yellow line, it appears that from the end of February we have been in a narrower channel with higher lows.
However, by looking at the chart it is very clear that although we're approaching the top of the channel again, we are going to need A LOT of momentum to get through. From our current price point of $8691 we have the EMA200, the EMA50 and the top of the channel to breakthrough. Once we make it through there we have to regather momentum to punch through the previous formed at about the $11600 level.
This post is not meant to be a doom and gloom post, but just to serve as a sobering reminder of where we are in the bigger picture of things. Yes, there is reason for optimism, but we've got a long road ahead of us. This chart also reminded me that the previous lows are not as far away as we'd like them to be yet.
Be bullish? By all means. But be careful and remember that confirmation of a reversal is still a little ways off from where we are now.
Probably will only see movement based on some significant fundamentals. Also remember that the last day of trading for the CME futures contract for March is on the 29th. Settles on April 4.