Fontas
Long

Bitcoin medium term long, cumulative volume exhaustion, fut prem

OKCOIN:BTCUSD3M   Bitcoin / Dollar Forward 3 Months
7654 37 42
4 months ago
Position size maximum 20% equity . Leverage max 4x for this volatility. Current price 561USD, stop loss 503USD. Targets are 606, 636, 666, 686, 706. Liquidation of 15%, 20%, 30%, 25%, 10% at these positions respectively.

EXIT: Futures premium reach +5%, close 50% of positions.
Fisher reach over 5th bar and is heading down, close 60% of positions
OBV reach 38955392 close 50% of positions. OBV reach 48648733 close all positions.

==

Reasoning.

1. Futures premium is at -1%, an extreme oversold value. Overbearish sentiment from the bitfinex hack. Must correct upwards in short term, even if this is part of a medium term bear trend.

2. Fisher transform, showing capitulation from the 840 euphoria high is complete or near completion.

3. On Balance Volume is at BOTTOM levels. We settled at $560 with similar cum volume levels as $440 before the entire euphoria cycle. Signals the market has reached finality and released its load.

Start with a small long position and add to this slowly as strength picks up. Watch the FUTURES PREMIUM. I will update this position.
4 months ago
Trade active: Current price 590. Good profit so far. Continue trade.
4 months ago
Trade active: Since the market did not even consolidate at the bottom, much more bullish than I anticipated. Change final 3 price targets to 689, 709, 739 respectively.
4 months ago
Trade active: Continuation of trade. First target of 606 reached. 15% of position closed
3 months ago
Trade active: 587 current price. Conditions still good.
3 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
Symmetric triangles both break upwards in healthy bull market.

Trade still active.
3 months ago
Trade active: Halfway of time-stop. Trade still active. Conditions good.
3 months ago
Comment: Trade continue. Symmetrical triangle breakup. Note, @fontase on twitter is not me. I have reported him as an imposter
2 months ago
Comment: continue
2 months ago
Comment: Raise stop-loss to 583. Minimum profit if stoplossed there is 15.6% at recommended 4x leverage
2 months ago
Trade active: Almost on target
2 months ago
Comment: I have closed 65% of my position for deep profit on 4x leverage at the original first 3 target: 606, 636, 689. Raise stop loss to 636. Remaining 2 targets are 709, 739. Still open on 35% of the long position. Will close 25% and 10% at these targets respectively.
a month ago
Trade closed: target reached:
snapshot


Final update. Successfully closed all positions at defined targets: 606, 636, 689, 709, 739. The return on capital for each target was 4.8%, 10.6%, 27.3%, 26.3%, 12.7%.

On the initial capital for 4x long, made a total 81.9% gain. Thank you BTC
Galvin
4 months ago
Looks good if it consolidates as shown on your chart.
Reply
Fontas Galvin
4 months ago
It did not consolidate. This is more bullish than I thought. I'd recommend up to 7x leverage now on 20% equity
Reply
Galvin Fontas
4 months ago
Right now we're in a rising wedge. I'm expecting a pull back to low 500s. Then if it holds we may hit your targets. But nothing in price action right this moment looks bullish.
Reply
Fontas Galvin
4 months ago
I'm expecting little to no pullbacks or resistance until 670-730 range. We shall see.
Reply
PRPS Fontas
4 months ago
Just below your sometimes caustic seeming surface lays a benevolent soul I think. Keep up the front of a hard nose tho.. wouldn't want anyone knowing :)
I appreciate your knowledge and posts here. You have a deeper calmer forward vision, which many seem to lack in crypto land.
+4 Reply
impr0vedMi
4 months ago
22min to journey to 606-636 begins!
Reply
Galvin impr0vedMi
3 months ago
Has it been 22min yet :D
Reply
Galvin
3 months ago
I have a line like that but its much lower http://prntscr.com/c9xytd
Reply
Galvin Galvin
3 months ago
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/vWfXCqkF/
Reply
Galvin
3 months ago
Also back in march quarterlies premium was crap. Until the settlement which is 2 weeks before the end date. After that quarterlies pumped around 25 usd to 30usd. Don't remember but it was a lot. Spot didn't pump.
I'm thinking thats why there is no premium cause we're 2 weeks out from settlement.
Reply
perpetualX PRO
3 months ago
Hi. New to this. What broker and program are you using to trade Fontas?
Reply
Fontas perpetualX
3 months ago
Okcoin. Don't use more than 5x leverage on that site because they hunt for stop losses/margin calls all the time.
Reply
perpetualX PRO Fontas
2 months ago
Thanks for the reply really appreciate it. What are the reasons why you still use them if they do this? No alternative?
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO
3 months ago
Excellent Fontas.

I went long a bit higher after the first daily high was broken up.

Looks viable still.
Reply
impr0vedMi
3 months ago
(>'-')> <('-'<) ^(' - ')^ <('-'<) (>'-')>
Reply
AndreyDrogal
3 months ago
Hi! What do you think about LTCBTC ratio? What could be the target for this year? Thanks.
Reply
Fontas AndreyDrogal
3 months ago
ltc is dogshit
+4 Reply
AndreyDrogal Fontas
3 months ago
ok, i think it go to 0,0025-0,003 btc
Reply
Sh0t PRO
3 months ago
$$$$
Reply
PRPS
3 months ago
"Note, @fontase on twitter is not me. I have reported him as an imposter"

Sounds legit
Reply
Galvin
3 months ago
This was looking bullish, but this rising wedge rsi can't be ignored.
snapshot
Reply
N-rG Galvin
a month ago
so?
Reply
ccc123 PRO
2 months ago
How do you make it to 4x leverage on OKcoin?
Reply
Fontas ccc123
2 months ago
open 10x leverage and add margin as desired
Reply
bamboodian
2 months ago
Very good analysis, admire.
Reply
Khawaja
2 months ago
Nice analysis. Good luck
Reply
mccd72
2 months ago
@fontas hi! and the next analysis?
Reply
Fontas mccd72
2 months ago
After 750-800 range hit we will see if continuation or triangle-out.
Reply
RoxN
2 months ago
You are awesome!:)
Reply
Khawaja
a month ago
Good luck. Good chart.
You achieve 739$ target.
Have a good weekend.
Nice trading idea.
Reply
Fontas Khawaja
a month ago
Thanks. Good profit
Reply
rooki3 Fontas
a month ago
that was f impressive, You are the man
Reply
Vagitarian
a month ago
Thanks Fontas!
Reply
grahvity
a month ago
Nice job, man.
Reply
Thanks for the update. What is your outlook now for btc? If you have closed out you are obviously expecting a pullback? Should US election uncertainty not drive this a little higher in the short term?
Reply
Fontas perpetualX
a month ago
I have 0 position and 0 opinion until next opportunity
Reply
AndreyDrogal
a month ago
Hello fontas! Do you have any idea about any altcoins? Would be grateful to hear your opinion! Thanks!
Reply
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