zhsloe

BTC is playing with our minds, but let's talk TA

OKCOIN:BTCUSD3M   Bitcoin / Dollar Forward 3 Months
Alright so it's my first idea here and my chart may not look so nice and professional, but I really wanted to share following observations I made based on simple indicators:
We are losing bullish momentum, so I would not expect the rally to continue until we break 0.382 fib level, a better idea would be to wait until retracement to the cloud/0.786 support with new RSI lows and then "The Halvening" is going to kick in and we are going to the moon. Master Ichi also predicts some volatility in the next 10 days, so I think this speaks for continuation of downtrend.

But remember: the Bull is still awake...
Comment: So the big move has not come yet, huh? Let's look at we have today:
snapshot

It's from Bitstamp this time, not from the futures as I wanted to outline one kind of important historical resistance, which happened to be the top of this rally.
TA:
1) I draw few pivots based on the movements of Kijun-san (base line), looking at periods where it flatlined becoming a support during the uptrend, so the key levels for me are:
- 660$ being the current KS value
- 580$ as it was the last resistance during the uptrend and has now became a support
- 520$, another resistance/support
- 480$-470$, the first resistance at the beginning of the uptrend
- 450$, the last boring consolidation
2) The upper resistance is actually from the weekly chart, it was the first KS pivot in the beginning of the bear market back in 2014, which perfectly forecasted the top in high 700s in 2016 :P There is another one, the first actual resistance in June 2014, which I didn't put here because it would too be much for one chart, but it lies somewhere at 670$, sooooooo yeah...
3) Kijun-sen is flatlining right now, showing an ongoing consolidation.
4) Distance between Chikou span (lagging span) and the price line shows us that the uptrend is over, if there is no strong leg up in the next 3-4 days.
5) Fisher transformation shows a possible top for now with no potential for an upmove.
6) Aroon shows that this consolidation is going to end soon.
7) And last but not least, there is a nice trendline in CCI, which created a massive bearish divergence at the top and has not been broken since then.

Quite a few points, right? :O I believe one of the three following scenarios, shown on the chart with three arrows, is going to happen:
1) For me TA suggests that we are going to retest 580$ support and then consolidate there for a while
2) If the halving turns out to be a bullish event, we are going to retest the last top
3) If the halving turns out to be a BEARISH event (of course it might happen! Crowd's psychology might be tricky and really unpredictable sometimes), then we are going to 520$-480$ area

The last two scenarios are a little bit irrational for me, but so is the sentiment about the halving. So I am going to watch the current price level closely, as it should tell us, in which direction the current consolidation is going to resolve.
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