julio24albert

Bitcoin : Best case, Base case and Worst case Scenario

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Hello fellas, this is the newest update for bitcoin . In this idea, I'll cover the scenario that could occur in the next 3 months. These scenarios are pure from the technical perspective and not covering the fundamental perspective that can cause more volatile movement in the market.

- Best case scenario
For the best case scenario, this is the scenario that is likely to happen. In this scenario, I assume that the market's condition will be similar with current condition in the market. As there are a lot of new adoptions for bitcoin , I assume this event will still take place until the next 3 months and this good news can drive the price to the higher region at around $61900 zone as the -.618 Fibonacci level. From the technical perspective, I still see this current movement as the 3rd wave that moves hyperbolic to the upside which in other word, we may see a potential correction pattern in the near future (I assume in the next 1 month). The next 2 months will be the spare for the upside 5th wave and potentially price will be stabilized at around $60000 zone.

- Base case scenario
The assumption of this base case scenario is from the break out strategy guide line which the main factor is the black trend line . Since the break out of this black trend line at February 5th, 2021 price has never retested again this black trend line as the phase 2 of break out strategy which is retesting the previous broken resistance as a support. Price surged to nearly $50000 zone and of course if the break out strategy is being respected, the ideal movement is to retest again this support trend line before the price continues its upside movement. The other strong indication that can support this scenario is that the divergence on the RSI and MACD as the early pull back indication for the potential correction. However, the 2nd peak of the RSI is still too far from the first peak in the RSI which based on my experience, this could be a false signal which in the later period, the RSI will continue to push closer to the 1st peak.

- Worse case scenario
This is just a wild assumption but still very logical as you know that at this type of curvature on the price, there will be a huge dump too as the cause of panic sellers executing their position. Although there is a small chance that this scenario may occurs, I still have to anticipate this scenario. If the price melts down from current region and indicates the 5th wave structure has complete, the lowest region I'm seeing for the 3 months cycle is at the $20000 as it was a psychological resistance zone and is moving in alignment with the golden pocket zone.

This is the 3 scenarios that I'm seeing still related with current market's structure. Although my bias is still very bullish , we still have to anticipate the other 2 scenarios which still makes sense based on the theory I mentioned in the previous paragraph.