Compression Below Resistance: Prepare for Post-FOMC BTC Plays

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Market Overview
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Bitcoin is trapped in a volatility compression zone, trading just below key resistance and awaiting the high-stakes FOMC catalyst. The broader context shows contained flows and limited directional momentum: the market is on standby.

• Momentum: Short-term momentum is neutral to slightly bearish 📉, with price tightly range-bound and no strong buying impulse. All eyes on the macro trigger.
  
• Key levels:
  — Resistances (clustered):
   • 116,800–116,814 (240 Pivot High, dominant multi-TF resistance)
   • 124,277 (ATH/Daily Pivot High)
  — Supports:
   • 114,800–114,809 (240 Pivot, primary short-term support)
   • 113,421 (720 Pivot)
   • 111,965 (Weekly Pivot High)
  
• Volumes: Volumes are normal across all timeframes, with only a small bump on short-term down moves (30m/15m) — no signs of extreme positioning.
  
• Multi-timeframe signals: Medium-term trend remains bullish (MTFTI "Strong Up" on daily/12H), but short-term timeframes (1H–4H–12H) show downward momentum and lack of a decisive volume trigger.
  
• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral to sell bias, confirming the absence of strong risk-on flows and supporting a cautious tactical approach.
  

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Trading Playbook
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The dominant tone is cautious sideways compression — only act on clear breakout or rejection signals at range extremes.

• Global bias: Short-term neutral to bearish; invalidated by a clear reclaim and hold above 116,814.
  
• Opportunities:
   • Buy “breakout” only if price clearly breaks and sustains >116,814 with strong volume (first target 117,300, then 118,400+); invalidate below 114,809.
   • Sell on firm break and hold <114,809, adding size if volume rises, targeting 114,000–113,000; invalidate on swift rebound >115,700.
  
• Risk zones / invalidations:
   • Reclaim and hold >116,814 (with volume) invalidates short bias.
   • Breakdown and hold <114,809 across several TFs activates downside.
  
• Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
   • Imminent FOMC decision — options market, volatility compression, and max defensive positioning are the primary drivers.
   • ETF flows cooling, Bitcoin dominance declining, risk rotations likely post-FOMC — no strong risk-on evidence yet.
   • UK/EU inflation and dovish central banks are background noise, not immediate BTC movers.
  
• Action plan:
   • [Entry] on breakout or clean rejection of technical pivots (116,814/114,809).
   • [Stop] below indicated risk line.
   • [TP1] 117,300, [TP2] 118,400+ in long; 114,000, 113,000 in short.
   • R/R ~1.8–2; max initial exposure 12.5%, only scale in with confirmed multi-TF momentum.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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All timeframes show a tense coil: no timeframe provides a clear trend for now, reinforcing a "wait and see" approach.

• 1D/12H: Medium-term uptrend filter persists (MTFTI “Strong Up”), but near-term momentum repeatedly stalls below 116,814–116,800, with no volume breakthrough.
  
• 6H/4H/2H/1H: Tightly coiled range, anchored at 114,809; loss would open up liquidity tests down to 113,421–114,000.
  
• 30m/15m: Volume picks up on short-term declines; only a fleeting “risk-on” flash on 15m (no follow-through to higher TFs).
  
• Major divergences: Isolated 6H “Strong Buy” on equity isn’t confirmed at the market level, making any bounce fragile. 15m “risk-on” flashes lack multi-TF confirmation.
  
• Key invalidation/pivot levels are well aligned across TFs — critical for reactivity when the move comes.
  

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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro and on-chain forces both encourage patience, with the FOMC outcome set to trigger the next major move.

• Macro events:
   • [FOMC] in focus, strong rate cut expectations and options market tension dominate — clear primary driver.
   • BoC goes dovish, UK/EU inflation tensions, but no direct “risk-on” signals across global macro.
   • ETF flows tepid, specific post-FOMC asset rotation will be key.
  
• Bitcoin analysis:
   • Bitcoin consolidates ~6.8% below ATH, inside technical “cloud” — price activity is all about risk management (options, ETF).
   • On-chain support ~110k–114k solid, resistance 115.8k–116.8k, tightly aligned with technical levels.
  
• On-chain data:
   • ETF inflows dormant, derivatives lead price action, no clear sign of euphoria or capitulation; on-chain support >108k remains robust.
   • Overall attitude is defensive, “wait for the catalyst” mode.
  
• Expected impact:
   • The FOMC’s reaction will drive the technical breakout or breakdown; only a clear confirmation will unlock decisive follow-through beyond the current coil.
  

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Key Takeaways
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Bitcoin remains trapped in a compression phase under key resistance, on high alert going into the FOMC.

The overall trend is short-term neutral to bearish, with all bullish setups hinged on a confirmed pivot breakout above 116,814. The highest-conviction play is to let the FOMC be the trigger: position with the move, not before. Macro dominance means no reason to anticipate a risk-on rotation until confirmation.

Keep your edge: wait for multi-TF signals and volume confluence, and manage exposure tightly — false breakouts and volatility traps are the enemy heading into this macro event!