BTC Medium Term and Local Work for 2025 18 05 2025

May 17

Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Everything is shown extremely accurately, according to technical analysis, logic based on cyclical repetition, and liquidity consolidation zones as a result of price and trading movements. This trading idea, with precise reversal zones and targets, will last you for 31 weeks. That is, for 7 months.



The previous trading idea BTC/USD Triangle. Medium-term and local work, published on 7 06 2024, it lasted me almost 1 year. It has 63 local work updates (I don't spam with new trading ideas on principle). So, nothing will get lost, you can follow everything, read, possibly use it as training material on a live chart, as a whole explanation of local work, what is really happening on the market, profit/loss potential, always before the price movement, and not after the fact. I show what is, that is, a chart and potential work from the position of a trader, not a crypto marketer.

🟣Local and medium urgent now

1️⃣💸 The bullish triangle itself (which is not there yet, I have depicted it on the chart for you) acts as a stop and consolidation zone (zone “psychology 100”, reset in trend No. 1). This is the easiest to manipulate and the most probable scenario. This will just be the summer consolidation. Instead of it, there may be:

2️⃣💸 Rising wedge, but more in shape like a triangle (essentially a wedge, there is a meaning of a triangle, but it was formed on aggressive pump news), with a large short liquidity takeout, and not very good logic of the TA movement after that... But, this is a bullish scenario, although quite aggressive.

3️⃣ Working out the bearish targets of the triangle (non-corrective price movement within its canvas). Stopping the decline in the designated zone and reversal upward (continuation of the trend). I emphasize the importance of not fixing the price below the zone of targets of the local corrective decline, which will not break the trend.

4️⃣💸 Double top (or triple). Double top as in 2021 in the distribution zone. This is the least likely scenario, but the most negative, as it breaks the trend. But, this is the least likely scenario, primarily because of the altcoins.

Altcoins in 2021 and now.

4️⃣In 2021, when Bitcoin formed a double top, they (altcoins) were in “space”, that is, in their distribution zones (+500-1000% of the average price of the set).

🔽Now everything is the other way around, they are in capitulation zones (most of them) or in their long-term accumulation channels:

Liquid -90-93%
Medium liquid -93-96%
Low liquid -96-98% or some are already scams or on the verge of it...

Some altcoins have pumped up earlier. That is, they left their long-term accumulation zones earlier. For example: SUN, XRP, DOGE, PEPE, SOL and so on... But there are very few of them, as distributing (raising the price, holding it and selling, inspiring to buy expensive when everything is cheap) in a bearish altcoin trend is very irrational, and you need a lot of money to go against the general market trend.

Main trend (most of it, chart since Binance Exchange foundation) for clarity on a large time frame of this local zone for work.
BTC Primary trend. Secondary — expanding triangle.

May 22

Note

22 05 2025 price in breakout zone 110 220.14

May 25

Note

25 05 2025 #rollback, retest of the breakout zone, after entering the resistance zone. The local trend is strong. Remember that this zone is what decides how Bitcoin will "dance" in the summer:

1) consolidation in a conditional sideways (forming a triangle)
2) or entry into the main asset distribution zone, or slightly lower to begin with, forming part of the ascending wedge.

Also in the first and second cases, they can collect stop loss with squeezes, and make many liquidations in both directions, especially long. This is a common occurrence in such "doubt" zones.

For those who don't understand what we are talking about. The first and second scenarios with long-term bullish, just different kinds of consolidation in the trend.

Jun 20

Note

21 06 2025 essentially an unnecessary local announcement, as everything is EXTREMELY ACCURATELY shown earlier, but on such a beautiful date (21 06 today and tomorrow 22 06) and the price is in the local reversal zone, - I decided to do it, to emphasize.

The medium-term direction of the trend depends on this local zone. We are in the second wave of the big summer consolidation triangle. Locally, in the resistance zone "psychology 100", a symmetrical triangle has also formed. Reversal zones and percentages to them, similarly shown earlier to "ladies and gentlemen", but not to their children.

What do you think, in the near future, news will be invented, and imitations of events (99.9% on the Internet, before the trigger) "somewhere there", which "influenced" the cryptocurrency market:

1) positive news (to hold this zone and exit it, breakthrough of the local triangle upwards). Local movement collects protective short stops and all short positions of gambling addicts.

2) partially negative to collect long stops, and then positive "you got it wrong" or malicious Iranian "susuly missed".

3) or negative news:
a) a decline to the dynamic support of the large triangle, and the formation of an uncertainty zone (collection of liquidity, due to the division of opinions/actions by 50/50, then collection of liquidity due to the removal of stop-loss and liquidations of gambling addicts on futures.

b) or full implementation of the bearish goals of the triangle, and already news-imitation, which absolutely does not concern the crypto market, but the price for obvious reasons “reacts” (a campaign for liquidity). They joked, "you misunderstood us", but your money is already with us... Oh well, next time don't believe “us” and the fiction-news under the chart against you...

Markets change, ticker names are similar, but the behavior of the masses — no!

Jun 22

Note

22 06 2025 local triangle (2 wave of the big one) is currently being broken down by a candle. Everything is described and shown earlier, the work tactics are similar.

Jun 25

Note

25 06 2025 Very local: "Market noise". Long stops were collected under the triangle, and the price is moving (3rd wave of the triangle-consolidation) in the canvas of the local triangle to its resistance, to the next zone of local accumulation of liquidity, in this case short stops and liquidations.

Jul 13

Note

13 07 2025 local level (above historical maximums, liquidation of short stop loss) reached 118 121

Breakthrough of it — to the next local target (full) of the triangle and resistance of the dynamic channel line (blue dotted). Long stops can be collected under 115 thousand.

Not a breakthrough — a rollback to the top zone of this local triangle (slightly above the breakout zone 112 000)

Jul 14

Note

14 07 2025 second local target reached 123 700 (123 218)

Aug 26

Note

26 08 2025 after reaching the conditionally exact local level of 123,700 (short position) +13.67%, - now a retest of this breakthrough zone. All price zones of support / resistance as before. August and September, as was said earlier, and more than once, in the entire history of the crypto market had a bearish trend, or consolidation at the reversal zones, I do not think that this time everything will be different. If it will be different, then this is less likely. The approximate up-down range of the zone is highlighted with a rectangle. If the retest (this is not a touch of the line for fools, but consolidation at the zone) stops there, then locally there will be a "non-existent" bullish pattern and continuation of the trend. If the price breaks through this zone after local consolidation, then the decline inside the triangle canvas. Key zones, including locally shown by arrows.

For a local trend (its change), a breakthrough and consolidation above a local descending line (highlighted in purple) is important.

Due to liquidity and involvement, the price is processed and moves in a "classic" manner, and nothing can change conditionally plus/minus. Be less afraid of pennies, getting involved in news noise and idle chatter in large public chats and social networks. This way you will earn an order of magnitude more, provided that you understand what you are doing and why, controlling risks. Do not complicate simple logical things that cannot happen otherwise. What happens on the market does not depend on your desires and needs "here and now". If there are many people waiting with the same desires, a reversal naturally occurs, that is, the flow goes in the direction of less resistance (liquidity, that's what stop losses, futures, options were invented for, and not for your "safety" and earnings, to strengthen this flow by the domino effect) The market does not owe you anything, then why are you sure of the opposite??? The patient and smart win, the restless and stupid lose. It's simple. The truth is always in simplicity.

Oct 1

Trade active

October 1, 2025 After a successful retest of the triangle breakout zone, the price is again pushing toward the local high (not slippage, short stop loss trigger) at 118,121. Currently, the price is 117,518.

A breakout is an exit to local levels; for most, this is pure fantasy, but these are very small percentages and are not the highs of this trend.

Not a breakout, but a pullback into the large triangle's canvas (second wave), that is, into the consolidation zone of the "psychology 100 zone," or, in trading parlance, into the first distribution zone in the trend (this is important) of the "small and medium-sized fish" of smart money. Where the larger ones eat the larger ones.

Important date zones for October.

1️⃣ 1 10 2025 (now, but this is a long news game of tightening and shaking out) #shutdown. It's probably playing out in the news right now, distracting attention (it's all a show). That is, a US government shutdown—humpty-dumpty, instilling uncertainty and "everything is bad"—then a speeding, unmanned aftershock. Ladies and gentlemen, look at this, but not these..., for example, similar cases in the 1970s or 1990s on SP. So, for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, this could actually be positive.

2️⃣ 7 10 2025: Consideration of creating a BTC reserve in one of the US states, Massachusetts. This will then become widespread (the scenario is laid out in stages), which will significantly impact supply and demand (those who bought from the big players will now sell to the plankton, given this news background and the like).

3️⃣ 10/16/2025, ladies and gentlemen, the #PPI report.

4️⃣ 10/29/2025, another report and nonsense from the world's leading market maker and con man, the #FRS.

5️⃣ 2025, #StrategyMSTR raises dividends to 10.25%. This is very significant.

Also (at a reasonable time, but here we go). The FTX exchange is beginning preparations for paying out $1.6 billion as part of its refund program to investors (but not CIS countries). The total planned amount is $16.5 billion. Payments will be in cash or #stablecoins via #Bitgo, #Kraken, and #Payoneer. And most importantly, the funds should reach creditors within 3 days!!! 16.5 billion in stablecoins in 3 days. Where will this money go right now?) Naturally, everything and everyone is going into cryptocurrency, and this could trigger a wave of initial "fireworks." Do you have #FTT tokens, ladies and gentlemen? Have you been accumulating them? Or are you a fan of very expensive purchases using the hamster strategy, doing everything the other way around?

Nothing has changed. All the logic, price reversal zones, take profit percentages are the same as before, just like six months ago. I just wrote the time zones where fairy tales for speculative addicts will be published. You're interested in this, right? The chart takes everything into account (the logic of liquidity and capital flow interests)... But you (not all, but many) are convinced of the opposite: that fairy tales shape capital movements. But this same capital invents fairy tales to justify price movements and its own interests, that is, your "shaving" against your (liquidity accumulation zones) dominant opinion, formed by them. A paradox for those caught up in market noise and news.

5 days ago

Note

October 12, 2025 Bitcoin price is still in the retest zone (3 times) 110,220.14 - 106,058.66. The snotty takeout (long liquidations) from the 123,700 level touched the 102,791.32 level, ladies and gentlemen, but not...

Most alts are experiencing Armageddon, similar to the Corona dump of March 2020 (which triggered the overall market price rise), especially those with futures trading, due to the domino effect of long liquidations. Some news headlines claim it's supposedly $19 billion. For those working with triggered limit orders and those who bought from zones in parts (snotty lows are definitely not needed), congratulations, you have good entry points. You can sell some later (when the shorts are liquidated). Many altcoins won't reach the snotty lows, which is logical. Otherwise, there might be another attempt at a spike (optional), but not at that percentage. Liquid assets that haven't fallen too low may gradually consolidate, but in the long term, that won't change anything.

2 days ago

Note

October 16, 2025. Everything remains the same.

🔄👀 I'll remind you once again about the retest of the mirror level (former resistance, which became support) of the "psychology zone." I've repeated what I said earlier, for the thirtieth time.

🔄🔼 Positive scenario. Exit from it, and the development of this secondary trend continues toward the 2nd and 3rd distribution zones.

🔄 Failure to hold (less likely), and re-entry into this wide range of the "psychology" split zone.

➖ Conditionally negative scenario. Then, from there, when the dominant opinion is: "Boss, everything is lost." A bear market is beginning - a reversal. Under some ridiculous, intellectually mocking, fictitious "important" #news (justifications for price movement and "shaving" the obedient and very predictable) from "important" political clowns (that's their role) - "aliens have changed their minds about killing cryptocurrencies." Long live the salvation of confused, tortured homies, and at the same time, the emptying of the deposits of short-sellers and futures addicts. Up, and according to the first scenario.

➖ Extremely negative scenario. After consolidation in the "psychology" zone (the first zone of partial reset in the trend), this zone is like the top of a half-cycle.

👀Similar things happened (peak 2019 06) between the previous cycle (peak 2017) and the cycle before that (peak 2021) of BTC and the market as a whole. Decline, -40-50% from the peak (price slippage may be lower). Then, consolidation, and strong growth on silly but positive news.

Essentially, it doesn't matter where the price goes (all probabilities are logical, and their percentages of realization are known in advance). What matters is what you do when the price goes where you planned, or, conversely, when a less likely, but known, scenario materializes.

That is, the basis isn't guessing the price movement (if you're at this level, you're a "kindergarten" of whiners and lovers of pointless internet chatter to prove their case), but your trading tactics and overall $ management, which in "infidel" parlance is called "money management." Simply put, it's intellectual maturity and adequacy. Yes, that's right.

🐹 All this is logical and simple, and can be solved by simply placing orders according to risk and money management, and your trading tactics. But, Well, most people aren't traders, and their thinking is focused on those same... and super-quick profits from pennies, even when it's impossible.

🐹But for speculative addicts, this is something unimaginable, and every DAY, there's a topic for fortune-telling on every +-5%: up/down, super pump/super dump, from one extreme to the other, according to the dominant internet agenda of the moment.

👁 Look and don't see, listen but don't hear? When everything is known in advance, and the past (long-term) confirms it. Weak minds probably won't get through the last line.

🐹Yes, predicting and "gossiping," unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately for most, is a more important activity than making money in the market.

1️⃣ It's all because they want to appear anonymously as someone they really aren't (all-knowing, millionaires, Successful people, and all that crap, but in reality they're ragamuffins and fantasists. Pardon me, but that's usually the case. That is, they appear (acting out a role, self-deception, cheap show-offs), but they don't exist. It's very easy for a "market manipulator" (a collective image, essentially non-existent) to "take away" their $ (themselves).

2️⃣ The second factor is the enormous amount of free time "adults" (age isn't an indicator), or almost-adults (masks of anonymity), who fill the internet space with "cryptans." Who have quite possibly forgotten, or never even knew, what work is. Therefore, gambling addiction and fortune-telling are their element, without understanding what, why, and why.

🪙 It's a global epidemic right now. Harsh? So be it, at least it's honest.

⏰🐹Too much psychology again? There's no other way. The market is psychology. A large number of stupid people, The higher its profitability. The crypto market exists because of the low entry barrier.