BTC Halving Era Halfway Point 2022 for BINANCE:BTCUSDT by bjames123

In the previous two BTC 'halving eras':

The peak occurred in the second quarter of the era
The price was down roughly 59.5 and 63.0 per cent from the peak to the middle of the era*
The lowest price after the peak occurred in the third quarter

The third BTC halving occurred on 11 May 2020. This leaves 81 days left (not incl. today and halfway point) for the price to peak, if this era is like the previous two, and the high in Nov 2021 was not the peak.

If the peak was, in fact, 10 Nov 2021 and the drawdown from peak-to-halfway point behaves like the previous eras, the price may end up <$30K towards the end of Apr 2022.

*Change is based on average of daily high and low.

Comment:

Was the peak in Nov 2021? We won't know for sure until the end of this halving era.

With respect to the second bullet point, from 10 Nov 2021 to 19 Apr 2022, BTC was down roughly 37.5%. This is unlike the previous halving eras.

We will have to see if, like the previous eras, the lowest price after the peak occurs in the third quarter which has just started. If it does, the price should bottom at less than $33K. However, if the peak was not Nov 2021, this point will also be invalidated.

Comment:

On 11 May 2022 — the one-year anniversary of the third halving — BTC was down roughly 57% from 10 Nov 2021. This is closer to the downturn from high to low in the previous eras. However, this low still occurred in the third quarter of the halving era.

Another thing that will be interesting to watch is if the lowest point from the high occurs in the third quarter of the halving era like in previous eras. The third quarter of this halving era has just begun and will come to a close in Apr 2023.

Comment:

Error: The above comment should be "two-year anniversary."

Comment:

The trendline (thin grey) seems destined to be broken.

We are in the third quarter of the current halving era, and this is when the low point should occur. Did we already see that on 12 May when the price dropped down to around $25K? Or will the price continue to fall between $20-25K to find the true bottom?

Also, will the breakout from the current downtrend occur towards the end of this quarter? And will the breakout from the last ATH happen in the first quarter of the next halving era like in previous eras?

Comment:

In the chart below, the thick black vertical lines represent the halvings. The dashed lines in between divide the halving eras into quarters.

The green boxes show the peak to low point for each era. The light red boxes show the peak to break out from the downtrend. The values for these changes are below. The current era's values are estimated with the averages from the previous eras.

2012 to 2016 era
• Peak to low point: -86.92%, 413 d
• Peak to breakout: -78.68%, 581 d

2016 to 2020 era
• Peak to low point: -84.12%, 364 d
• Peak to breakout: -79.39%, 476 d

2020 to 2024 era
• Peak to low point: -85.52%, 389 d
• Peak to breakout: -79.04%, 529 d

If things play out like before, we are going down more. Also, note that the green box projection takes us down towards Kiyosaki's Killer K-Level (i.e., 9K)!

Comment:

The thin blue trendline (shown in light grey in the previous chart) has been broken. Although, some might argue that it wasn't much of a trendline in the first place. Nevertheless, BTC continues its descent.

Is the next stop at the thicker grey trendline around $18K?

Comment:

BTC touched down on the long-running trendline for the first time since Mar 2020.

Comment:

Speaking on BTC, Soloway recently said, "...the next target is $12K, but I think it's important to recognize that it's very possible we go below $10K."

However, he also said there would first be a bounce in the coming weeks.

Comment:

Will the long-running trendline be broken soon?

Klippsten, the CEO of Swan Bitcoin, when recently asked about a BTC bottom, stated BTC hodlers would likely still be buying anywhere from now down until around $13.8K.

Comment:

As BTC continues to dance along the long-running trendline, several members on TV have pointed toward the BTC Pi Cycle indicator as evidence that BTC has, in fact, bottomed. This is because this indicator has signalled the bottoms in the previous halving eras (see chart below).

So, is this the bottom, or will this indicator be 'broken' this time around?

Comment:

BTC is still holding the long-term trendline. But will there be any sudden moves in either direction?

Kevin O’Leary recently told Daniela Cambone on Stansberry Research, "I see Bitcoin sort of testing $20K over time, getting a lot of resistance there. It seems to be holding the twenty to twenty-three area -- still very profitable for Bitcoin miners that are currently mining at about $7K per coin at scale."

Mr Wonderful went on to say that, concerning the institutional buyer's interest in BTC, there is zero. "They have no Bitcoin -- anybody who tells you the institutions, the sovereigns own it -- is full of poo-poo."

Comment:

Zhao, CEO of Binance, recently spoke with Yahoo Finance. He explicitly stated that Bitcoin and crypto would be back. When Brad Smith asked him about what will happen with crypto advertising, Zhao stated, "I think things will slow down for a while. I wouldn't say we're done. I think, you know, a couple of years later that there may be another, most likely, there will be another bull market. I'm not trying to predict the market, but that's how markets go -- in cycles."

At the end of the interview, Julie Hyman asked Zhao squarely, "Very quickly, CZ, when's the next bull market coming?" Zhao responded, reiterating his response to Smith, "Historically, we see the market go in cycles every four years, so usually, you know -- historically -- two years bull market, two years bear market -- very roughly." He added, "History doesn't predict the future, but that's kind of how we -- I think that's a high probability of repeating."

So, according to CZ, BTC isn't going to be going up (in any significant way) for some time. His view appears to be roughly consistent with the predicted path in the chart above, which puts the return of the bull towards the end of the current halving cycle.

Comment:

Cease and Desist

Jared Blikre with Yahoo Finance, speaking on the crypto market, noted, "This is one of the worst weeks in quite a while." He highlighted the importance of the $20K level, citing the high from 2017. "If we break $20K -- probably heading for $13K -- that's what's in the cards. So, it's gonna be another white-knuckling weekend for crypto, potentially, guys."

Comment:

Bitcoin Daily

Austin at Altcoin Daily recently spoke with Eric Crown. Based on historical drawdowns, Austin stated that he wouldn't be surprised to see BTC fall to around $11K in the near future because that would be around an 85% drop from the ATH. Crown acknowledged the significant drops in BTC over its history. However, he argued that as time goes on, the falls aren't as severe. Referencing the current decline from the ATH, roughly 74%, Crown said it was "close enough" to call it a bottom. Crown posed the question: "If you're very long term, you know, does that make a humongous difference?" He added, "Is it worth the -- is it worth the wait and potentially missing it?"

Comment:

Bye Bye, BTC...for Now

Speaking with Michelle Makori, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, stated that the current situation isn't just a Bitcoin winter; it's a "macro winter" or an "everything winter."

Just how bad are things going to get in traditional markets? McGlone boldly stated, "I think it's going to be worse than the 2008 correction -- worse than the Great Financial Crisis -- the foundation is there for something worse..."

However, on a positive note, when Makori pressed McGlone about his previous BTC prediction, which he stuck to multiple times, he did not present a new view. McGlone still sees Bitcoin on track to hit $100K by 2025.

Comment:

BTC Headed Lower

Recently, Gareth Soloway spoke with Daniela Cambone at Stansberry Research. Soloway predicts a substantial drop in BTC's price in the near future. "I think Bitcoin still has another leg lower to $12K to $13K." He also sees the stock market returning to the March 2020 highs seen just prior to the COVID crash by the end of the year or the beginning of 2023.

Comment:

Oops!

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Ticking Time Bomb?

The CEO of Online Blockchain, Clem Chambers, recently spoke with Daniela Cambone of Stansberry Research. He predicts that it's just a matter of time before BTC takes another nose dive. Another big exchange going belly up will be the catalyst. "Now, which ones are gonna go bang soon? Because when they go bang, Bitcoin's going down even further, isn't it!"

Comment:

Is this cycle going to play out similar to previous cycles?

If the answer is yes, the bottom is already in, or the bottom will occur within the next few months.

Comment:

In the past, a breakout of the sloping resistance has confirmed that BTC has already bottomed.

So, is BTC about to fall back? Will it fake out? Are we on the precipice of the beginning of the next ascent? Or are we about to witness something unusual that will invalidate this signal from previous cycles?

Interesting times.

Comment:

Just a quick update...

The break-out has been confirmed, as can be seen on the weekly log chart below. However, will BTC dip back down like it did in 2015? Is the bottom in, or has it yet to occur?

Comment:

Soloway Augers the Future of Bitcoin

In a chat with Austin from Bitcoin Daily, Gareth Soloway shared his thoughts on the financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. According to Soloway, the recent upturn in BTC and other cryptos will likely be short-lived. There is strong resistance around $28-$30K. Soloway stated that he would have to see BTC push past the $30K mark to change his mind. He sees BTC putting in lower lows in the coming months and ultimately a bottom before the end of this year. And the bottom could be low--he hasn't ruled out a $9K BTC bottom. When Austin pointed out that historically, the halving has been a catalyst for a new bull run, Soloway acknowledged that fact but dismissed the importance of the halving event having much impact this time. Instead, Soloway foresees the next BTC bull run as more dependent on the FED starting up their money printer. This means BTC won't be headed for the sky for another 3 to 5 years.

Comment:

I thought it was time to post an update.

This is how things have played out so far.

BTC should be between 33K and

42K by March 2024.

Comment:

Also, so far, it appears that the past is repeating. The peaks have come in the second quarter of the halving cycle while the low has been cemented in the third quarter. However, this cycle has yet to complete. BTC would need to plunge fairly rapidly to invalidate this pattern though.

Comment:

Will BTC be between ~33-42K by the halving?

Comment:

As there is now more certainty about the date of the next halving, I revised the position of the vertical black bar to fall through the third week of April. A few sources indicate this is the when it will occur.

buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/

Is BTC due for a tumble? The past indicates BTC to be down a bit (between dashed purple lines) from where it currently hovers, at the point of halving.

The halving is fast approaching. Typically, following halving, BTC rises. But it is not guaranteed to go up. Yahoo Finance's Brad Smith recommends to watch how miners such as Marathon and Riot handle the halving.

Comment:

When asked what his end-of-year target is for Bitcoin, Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Sean Farrell reiterated his prediction from earlier this year: $126,000. This target is indicated by the red dot on the above chart.

Comment:

This is wild! I had to wait until there was no argument. BTC clearly broke the ATH putting the ATH for this cycle in the fourth rather than second quarter, which different than past cycles.

Comment:

Yahoo Finance markets reporter Josh Schafer relayed end-of-year BTC predictions from a few financial institutions:

$100K - Standard Chartered
$110K - SkyBridge
$150K - Tom Lee (FundStrat)

Comment:

Well, it's official now. Unlike previous cycles, BTC peaked in the last quarter of the last halving cycle.

Also, on the halving on 20 Apr, BTC was around $66K, which is also unlike previous cycles where BTC was down around 40–50% from the peak.