Be fearful when everybody is greedy
Following recent price action, many still looks bullish with high target short term for BTC however:
- Weekly RSI still high at 63. Past market action always showed the weekly RSI retraced at least to a 50 and even 30 (Dec-18)
- Daily RSI still below 50 standing at 48. Resistance at 50 proved in the past that cycle was bearish below this line
- Weekly MACD above to cross bearish
- Price rejected from Daily 50 EMA
- Fear and Greed index changed from a 24 two days ago (extreme fear) to a 57 today (greedy)
- Number of BTCUSDLONGS is very high (x3 more than BTCUSDSHORTS)so there are a large number of leverage traders to liquidate dumping the price
- Bots liquidation dump are immediately bought meaning shorters have the first mover advantage and the upper hand whilst buyers simply react to market movements
- NVT signal showing bearish sign and always lead to massive sell-off. Very precise indicator.
For these reasons, it does not looks good to long BTC and I will not long. My targets are on the chart.
Don't forget that retracing does not mean long-term outlook is bearish but after a such extended bull-run, BTC needs to calm down, retrace to affordable price where the average Joe will be able to poor some money in before resuming the uptrend. BTC retracement could also be the opportunity for some Alts to shine if BTC dominance decrease in the meantime.
- Weekly RSI still high at 63. Past market action always showed the weekly RSI retraced at least to a 50 and even 30 (Dec-18)
- Daily RSI still below 50 standing at 48. Resistance at 50 proved in the past that cycle was bearish below this line
- Weekly MACD above to cross bearish
- Price rejected from Daily 50 EMA
- Fear and Greed index changed from a 24 two days ago (extreme fear) to a 57 today (greedy)
- Number of BTCUSDLONGS is very high (x3 more than BTCUSDSHORTS)so there are a large number of leverage traders to liquidate dumping the price
- Bots liquidation dump are immediately bought meaning shorters have the first mover advantage and the upper hand whilst buyers simply react to market movements
- NVT signal showing bearish sign and always lead to massive sell-off. Very precise indicator.
For these reasons, it does not looks good to long BTC and I will not long. My targets are on the chart.
Don't forget that retracing does not mean long-term outlook is bearish but after a such extended bull-run, BTC needs to calm down, retrace to affordable price where the average Joe will be able to poor some money in before resuming the uptrend. BTC retracement could also be the opportunity for some Alts to shine if BTC dominance decrease in the meantime.
Comment:
Current pump happens on decreasing volume. Looks like a fake out