littleriver

BV double bottom reversal ......

BATS:BV   BAZAARVOICE INC
380 34 2
Highlighted the double bottom in blue, The reversal is confirmed but there could be a throw back here at horizontal resistance. If horizontal line broken, looking for equity to reach next line of support. This play is loaded with risk as BV             is being sued for violation of Anti Trust laws when they recently bought their competitor. Volume is looking good here for a move up despite trouble with the law.
nice one .. looks like FB pattern this summer/fall.
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littleriver
3 years ago
Thank Jr I was looking into options and they jump from 7.5 to 10 . Any thoughts as to why?
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
usually these smaller players that trade above 5 are like that.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
based on volume/interest, market cap and share price
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
I see thanks.
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April 10's are good .. you have enough time. Need open interest though
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Keep going alot of interest in may at 15
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
this might be a takeover.. serious
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Sure is much interest at higher prices.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
and the fact that it's a 500 million market cap with open interest in the thousands on just about every available call calendar
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
In Aug nearly 10000 at 15
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
Yeah.. someone is thinking takeover
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
Probably Google
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
I see a double in the equity from here whoever it is and much more in options .
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
Fingers crossed it's held tight tomorrow... want to ride this stock!
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
GN
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
GN
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stealing your chart
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
No problem .......was looking at those June $2 PAL are going for .05 again. Probably won't stay there long.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
can't fill it... needs more vol
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
I see .
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snapshot


Took a look ,.. indicators very positive. If we match a low here I'll ride this next wave for sure
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Looking for a head and shoulders here?
Beautiful chart like your use of colors on this one very easy to read.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO littleriver
3 years ago
Hey thanks. You are right about this antitrust issue. It's holding BV stock back. If we get some clues as to when the suit ends stock will fly. I'll do some research.
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Here's the case "
WASHINGTON--Bazaarvoice Inc.'s (BV) shares dropped more than 15% after the
Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit Thursday challenging the
company's June 2012 acquisition of rival PowerReviews Inc.

The department said the $168 million deal harmed competition in the market
for online platforms that retailers and manufacturers use to collect and
display consumer-generated reviews on their websites.

Bazaarvoice, based in Austin, Texas, is the market-leading platform provider,
and PowerReviews was its closest competitor, the department said.

The lawsuit, filed in a San Francisco federal court, alleges Bazaarvoice's
deal to buy PowerReviews was a "calculated" move that eliminated the company's
most significant rival "and effectively insulated itself from meaningful
competition."

The suit seeks to restore competition that the department alleges was
eliminated by the transaction. It requests that a judge force Bazaarvoice to
sell assets that will be "sufficient" to create a "separate, distinct and
viable" competing business.

The department said it didn't begin its investigation until after the
transaction closed because the deal wasn't reported to U.S. antitrust
authorities before it was consummated.

Bazaarvoice didn't immediately respond to a request for comment."
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Thanks for the information JR. I wonder when it will go to court? I do not see them selling any important assets or setting up much competition. The timing though is a big question. I am keeping an eye on the chart hoping it will provide a clue. Thanks again for your help.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
The Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit on Jan. 10, 2013, challenging Bazaarvoice Inc.’s June 2012 acquisition of PowerReviews Inc. The parties did not report the transaction under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act and consummated the transaction without government pre-merger review. According to the DOJ suit, the transaction substantially lessened competition in the market for consumer-generated online product ratings and review platforms (PRR platforms) in the United States, resulting in higher prices and diminished innovation. The DOJ asks the court to order Bazaarvoice to divest assets sufficient to create a new business replicating PowerReviews’ competitive significance in the marketplace.

BACKGROUND

Bazaarvoice is a publicly traded Delaware corporation that offers PRR platforms to retailers and manufacturers. It earned approximately $106.1 million in revenue in 2012.1 On June 12, 2012, Bazaarvoice closed its $168.2 million acquisition of PowerReviews, a privately held Delaware corporation with approximately $11.5 million in revenue.2 According to Bazaarvoice, the company was not required to report the transaction to US antitrust agencies and observe the mandatory waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, because “PowerReviews was so small it failed to meet the government’s own required ‘size-of-person-test’ that triggers mandatory notification and pre-clearance process.”3

DOJ CHALLENGE

The DOJ began its investigation into Bazaarvoice’s acquisition of PowerReviews shortly after the transaction was consummated in June 2012.4 After a six-month investigation, the Justice Department concluded that “Bazaarvoice bought PowerReviews knowing that it was acquiring its most significant rival and hoping to benefit from diminished price competition,” and brought suit alleging that the transaction is likely to substantially lessen competition in violation of Section 7 of the Clayton Act.5

The DOJ complaint alleges that Bazaarvoice was the leading commercial supplier of PRR platforms in the United States, PowerReviews was “routinely” the only significant competitive threat that Bazaarvoice faced, and, as a result of the transaction, Bazaarvoice will be able to profitably impose targeted price increases on its US customers.6

In support of its allegations of anticompetitive effects, the DOJ quotes extensively from internal Bazaarvoice documents:

• In April 2011, a Bazaarvoice executive noted that acquiring PowerReviews would “liminat primary competitor” and provide “relief from price erosion.” He also suggested that Bazaarvoice would “retain an extremely high percentage of customers” because available alternatives were “scarce” and “low quality.”

• One month later another executive noted that an acquisition would “tak out only competitor, who … suppress price points by as much as 15% ….”

• Upon completing due diligence, Bazaarvoice prepared a memorandum for its board of directors. In that memorandum, executives indicated that the acquisition would “block entry by competitors” and “ensure retail business protected from direct competition and premature price erosion.”9

The DOJ also cites evidence that customers obtained substantial price discounts and benefited from new product features and improved functionality as a result of competition between Bazaarvoice and PowerReviews.10

The Justice Department rejects arguments that other PRR solutions or social commerce products are adequate substitutes for the parties’ PRR platforms and alleges a narrow PRR market. The DOJ maintains that it would be impractical and cost-prohibitive for many of Bazaarvoice’s customers to build their own, in-house PRR solution, and that Bazaarvoice has the information to impose targeted price increases on customers that would not consider in-house solutions to be a viable alternative.11 The DOJ also alleges that other social commerce products “do not collect the same type of structured, product-level data associated with ratings and reviews,” and, therefore, customers do not view these products as substitutes for PRR platforms.12 Finally, the DOJ alleges that entry of new competitors or expansion of remaining ones is unlikely, due to substantial barriers to entry, namely Bazaarvoice’s customer network.13

The DOJ seeks divestiture by Bazaarvoice of sufficient assets, “whether possessed originally by PowerReviews, Bazaarvoice, or both,” to establish a viable competing business that “replace PowerReviews’ competitive significance in the marketplace.”14

BAZAARVOICE REACTION

Bazaarvoice issued a statement the day after the Justice Department filed its complaint. In the statement, Bazaarvoice argues that the DOJ asserts an “overly narrow definition of the product market.”15 According to Bazaarvoice, there is no single market for PRR platforms. Rather, brands and retailers can use a number of tools “as part of an overall social commerce strategy to increase awareness of their products.”16 Thus, Bazaarvoice competes in the “market for social commerce engagement tools” with tools such as Facebook, Twitter, question and answer, and community forums. Baazarvoice suggested that “recent ordinary course documents and substantial economic evidence” support this market definition and criticized the DOJ’s reliance on “a series of dated documents” that “paint an inaccurate picture of the marketplace.”17

COMMENTARY

This case serves as a reminder of several key considerations to keep in mind when assessing an acquisition that is likely to raise antitrust risk:

• As specifically noted by Bill Baer, the recently confirmed assistant attorney general in charge of the DOJ’s Antitrust Division, this case “demonstrates that transactions that are not reported to are not immune from scrutiny.”18

• When challenging a consummated transaction, the agency will seek to restore competition to the level that existed prior to the acquisition. Thus, if the parties’ businesses are irreversibly intertwined, the agency may seek a remedy that impacts both the acquired assets and the acquirer’s original assets.

• The US antitrust agencies continue to give very significant weight to the parties’ internal evaluations of the market and competition of the market and competition. Even in dynamic markets, the parties’ documents (including, of course, email) play a key role in analyzing market definition, assessing whether the parties are close competitors, and determining whether adverse competitive effects are likely. The documents cited by the DOJ, even if characterized by Bazaarvoice as wrong, outdated, or hyperbolic, will likely be the focal point of a trial here, assuming the case goes to trial.

Notes

1 Complaint ¶ 11, United States v. Bazaarvoice Inc., No. C-13-0133 JSC (N.D. Cal. filed Jan. 10, 2013), available at 2013 WL 228471.

2 Id. ¶¶ 10, 12.

3 Press Release, Bazaarvoice, Statement of Bazaarvoice on Yesterday’s Filing of an Antitrust Action Against it by the Department of Justice, (Jan. 11, 2013), http://investors.bazaarvoice.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=732832.

4 Press Release, U.S. Department of Justice, Justice Department Files Antitrust Lawsuit Against Bazaarvoice Inc. Regarding the Company’s Acquisition of PowerReviews Inc., (Jan. 10, 2013), http://www.justice.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2013/291185.htm.

5 Compl. ¶ 13.

6 Compl. ¶¶ 31-32.

7 Id. ¶¶ 3, 34.

8 Id. ¶ 4.

9 Id. ¶ 9.

10 Id. ¶¶ 33, 42-54.

11 Id. ¶¶ 37-39.

12 Id. ¶ 40.

13 Again citing internal Bazaarvoice documents, the Justice Department argues that customers require PRR platforms with broad networks (i.e., retailers seek platforms that facilitate access to the greatest volume of ratings and reviews, and manufacturers seek platforms that enable them to syndicate content to the greatest number of retailers), and the breadth of Bazaarvoice’s customer network limits the ability of its remaining competitors to obtain the scale necessary to offer a viable PRR platform. Id. ¶¶ 55-58.

14 Id. ¶ 63(b).

15 Bazaarvoice January 11, 2013 Press Release.

16 Id.

17 Id.

18 DOJ January 10, 2013 Press Release.

http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/New_York/Insight/2013/03_-_March/DOJ_suit_seeks_to_unwind_consummated_transaction,_highlights_importance_of_documents_in_agency_merger_investigations/
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littleriver
3 years ago
I am closing this one. Chart is going from bad to much worse.
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littleriver
3 years ago
Divergence showing up on baby fractal indicators. Thanks goes to nmike for that insight.
snapshot
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littleriver
3 years ago
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Tail of the dragon. Just making that up. A metaphor for the road that lies ahead.
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littleriver
3 years ago
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Crossed the 10EMA with volume increase last two days.
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littleriver
3 years ago
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Good volume today at important juncture. Next target is 7.50.
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littleriver
3 years ago
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Using half cycle clone to predict timing of next target. The clone is predicting a peak target of 7.75 to 8.05 occurring on the 8th of May. We haven't broken the downtrend line yet. I suppose we could be looking at the peak now and hold it for a few days to end the cycle but I am optimistic we will reach the target.
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