A rare coverage of the ag-commodity, but here it is - Corn (P) expected to remain under strain, with a confluence of background technical tools pointing down towards the 244'4 to 202'6 range, against a foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model eyeing targets as low as 202'6.
TECHNICAL TOOLS: Fibonacci, and Patterns
An overlay of Fibonacci matrices in Roman numbers with contraction and extension values is shown below:
Fib-I = 0.886 points to a Scott Carney's targe, as follows:
Note that the pattern originates at Point-zero and completes at Point-C, being the acolyte precursor of the pattern (see below).
Note also that Point-C of the is Fibonacci-dependent upon TWO values, 0.886 as in the case of this posted chart, but also 1.131, where this tiny extension is often encountered as the inscribed pattern in the same price field, as follows:
Note also, as mentioned above, that the acolyte of the Scott Carney's pattern is the patten, which is a reactionary conclusion of the , typically retracing fifty percent of the Shark's last swing, hence the five-zero, or simply pattern, as follows:
Had to rebuild chart from C1! (CBOT) to ZC1! (CBOT) - Not expecting much change in forecast/targets:
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The levels worth heeding are:
1 - 336'0 - This would invalidate any corrective bullish narrative, at least as far of the Geo goes, whereas a break below 319'0 would most certainly mark a new bearish departure point of a 5th wave towards the targets defined last July 2015.
2 - 457'7 - This represents a 1.414 Fibonacci extension, anchoring the Fib matrix at the structures shown in the chart. Considering that we find ourselves in the on-going development of a bullish correction, these anchors are viable options as first reactive levels following a precipitous bearish impulse to the downside - Note also that a 1.618 extension is left open, however, it does not present with the same enticing features associated with the 1.414, namely a preceding structure-low to the left-most aspect of the chart, as well as a 2nd wave cluster validation from the most recent bearish impulse ... Hence, the choice for the 1.414 extension over the 1.618.
3 - The Geo, appearing with its initial 1-2 Leg requirement (near-alignment of a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry), sends forward tentative 1-3 and 2-4 Lines. Typically, the 2-3 Leg is generated from a complex double or triple-zigzag, but in rarer forms, an internal impulse would occur. Considering that this impulse occurs counter-trend to the prevalent bearish market move, we have to consider the possibility that the market is reversing to the top-side. I would look or the generation of a clear and obvious bearish corrective wave carving higher lows before fretting this possibility. For now, the Geo remains the prevalent potential, backed by a Predictive/Forecasting Model which acts independently, free of opinions and with a consistent record. Still, I would set a tolerance line down, such that a breach of the 2-4 Line, originating from Point-1 of the Geo would constitute a Geo failure.
Here is how I define this tolerance line "TL":
Here is how I define this tolerance line "TL":
Note also the two discreet lines, each emanating from Point-1 of the Geo:
I have left them in this position, relative to potential "Geo Anchor" levels expecting that Point-4 might potentially seek repose over one of these. Hence, the recent low following Point-3 is not what I'd expect to be the defining residence of Point-4, but a possible intermediate step in this process - Note the "tunneling" which this 1-4 Line seems to use, as if on purpose. These are one of many discreet interplays that occur in the price field.
We will continue to follow this chart as the weeks go by. Feel free to request specific commodities, as I am slowly expanding my continual research in occult market geometries, seaking further validation of my method outside of the already proven indices, Forex and stocks. So, commodities appear like a next reasonable pasture in which to battle bulls and bears.
$C1! #corn #CBOT: Predictive/Forecasting model remains bearish; Feel since signal @433'4; Eyes 244'4:
22 JUL 2015 - Futures: Coffee, KC1!:
As of today, here are the two charts I have followed, but not shared on in the trading community at-large (if I perceive that there is a real interest in commodities, then I might start publishing these as well):
Coffee - KC1! - Daily:
A geometry is completing its 5 points. This should put the market geometrist on alert, as the expected price pathway is as shown.
However, the LONGER term (see MONTHLY chart below) remains bearish:
1 - Darrel Good : Value Of The U.S. Dollar And Corn Prices
2 - How the Dollar Impacts Commodity Prices
In continuation to the Fibonacci descriptions, here is what's relevant for now (Fib matrices are enumerated in Roman numerals):
Fib-I = 0.886 - As described above, this Fibonacci value points to Scott Carney's internal Shark target (the external Shark target would be a Fibonacci extension values at 1.131 of Zero-X, as also shown in the second Shark pattern in the analysis above). In essence, all values gravitate around 0.618, where 0.886 = fourth root of the 0.618.
Fib-II = Here too, I am highlighting the 1.131 which defines the gap extension between points X and B via the XA x 1.131-Fib extension.
Fib-III = Similarly here, I am highlighting the 1.131 which defines the gap extension between points X and B via the XA x 1.131-Fib extension.
Fib-IV = This may appear to be a mundade 50% retracement. Nonetheless, 50 is also part of the Fibonacci matrix, and here relevant to the definition of Scott Carney's 5-0 pattern
* * * IMPORTANT * * *
Following is an article written by Scott Carney who explains the origin and relevance of certain Fibonacci values, especially giving emphasis to the 0.886 level:
Essay on Fibonacci:
The Fibonacci Sequence - Its History, Significance, and Manifestations in Nature