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#Corn #cbot: Predictive/Forecasting Model Eyes 202'6 #fibonacci

CBOT:C1!   Corn (P)
777 12 18
a year ago
Friends,

A rare coverage of the ag-commodity, but here it is - Corn (P)             expected to remain under bearish strain, with a confluence of background technical tools pointing down towards the 244'4 to 202'6 range, against a foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model eyeing bearish targets as low as 202'6.


TECHNICAL TOOLS: Fibonacci, Shark and 5-0 Patterns

An overlay of Fibonacci matrices in Roman numbers with contraction and extension values is shown below:

snapshot

Fib-I = 0.886 points to a Scott Carney's Shark targe, as follows:

snapshot

Note that the Shark pattern originates at Point-zero and completes at Point-C, being the acolyte precursor of the 5-0 pattern (see below).

Note also that Point-C of the Shark is Fibonacci-dependent upon TWO values, 0.886 as in the case of this posted chart, but also 1.131, where this tiny extension is often encountered as the inscribed pattern in the same price field, as follows:

snapshot

Note also, as mentioned above, that the acolyte of the Scott Carney's Shark pattern is the 5-0 patten, which is a reactionary conclusion of the Shark, typically retracing fifty percent of the Shark's last swing, hence the five-zero, or simply 5-0 pattern, as follows:

snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: 08 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / tech-Note:

Had to rebuild chart from C1! (CBOT) to ZC1! (CBOT) - Not expecting much change in forecast/targets:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
... Cont'd ...

Note how the 5-0 pattern is pointing its termination Point-D at a significant historical level in the following chart:


snapshot




OVERALL:

Within this chart, there are several technical tools pointing to a confluence of values to the down side. Both inscribed pattens, as well as the Predictive/Forecasting Model are calling for a narrow range of values. Howeve, taken along, the Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for the following two qualitative targets, namely:

1 - TG - Lo = 244'4 - 14 JUL 2015

and

2 - TG - Lox = 202'6 - 14 JUL 2015


Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----



PS: Following are the two same charts, one in arithmetic scale, the other in logarithmic scale:


Corn (CBOT) - Weekly Chart in Arithmetic scale:
snapshot



Corn (CBOT) - Weekly Chart in logarithmic scale:
snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Some Connie Brown cues there, cool.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
@IvanLabrie, not sure what you keep on referring here and before about Connie's material.

Connie has a software with indicators that are posted here in TradingView, and that's pretty much it. There is no cues or material that Connie has contributed or discovered that I have posted in this chart. Connie is an adept CMT charter member who uses Fibonacci clusters, Gann Square and cycles, none of which are of her discovery.

You keep on mentioning this "Connie Brown cues", but I want to make sure that you don't induce any other traders into error here, as there is really no relevance to any of the fantastic work which Connie has put out before. If there were, I would also be sure to credit here, as I do about other authors in this and prior analyses.

Please, refer back to her work if you have time and curiosity - I just had to point you out here, as you too often make these references in error.

Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
14 JUL 2015 - Addendum:

Tech-Note:

In continuation to the Fibonacci descriptions, here is what's relevant for now (Fib matrices are enumerated in Roman numerals):

Fib-I = 0.886 - As described above, this Fibonacci value points to Scott Carney's internal Shark target (the external Shark target would be a Fibonacci extension values at 1.131 of Zero-X, as also shown in the second Shark pattern in the analysis above). In essence, all values gravitate around 0.618, where 0.886 = fourth root of the 0.618.

Fib-II = Here too, I am highlighting the 1.131 which defines the gap extension between points X and B via the XA x 1.131-Fib extension.

Fib-III = Similarly here, I am highlighting the 1.131 which defines the gap extension between points X and B via the XA x 1.131-Fib extension.

Fib-IV = This may appear to be a mundade 50% retracement. Nonetheless, 50 is also part of the Fibonacci matrix, and here relevant to the definition of Scott Carney's 5-0 pattern


* * * IMPORTANT * * *

Following is an article written by Scott Carney who explains the origin and relevance of certain Fibonacci values, especially giving emphasis to the 0.886 level:
- http://www.esignallearning.com/education/marketmaster/archive/0404/040204.aspx


Essay on Fibonacci:
The Fibonacci Sequence - Its History, Significance, and Manifestations in Nature
- http://digitalcommons.liberty.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1347&context=honors



Enjoy,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$C1! #corn #CBOT: Predictive/Forecasting model remains bearish; Feel since signal @433'4; Eyes 244'4:

snapshot


@USDA @CBOT
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Interesting. What are your thoughts on coffee? It looks like there is further downside.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Hello @millie - On 22 JUL 2015, I wrote the following in my little quiet corner:

22 JUL 2015 - Futures: Coffee, KC1!:

snapshot


David



As of today, here are the two charts I have followed, but not shared on in the trading community at-large (if I perceive that there is a real interest in commodities, then I might start publishing these as well):

Coffee - KC1! - Daily:
A geometry is completing its 5 points. This should put the market geometrist on alert, as the expected price pathway is as shown.

snapshot


However, the LONGER term (see MONTHLY chart below) remains bearish:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
I find it rather intriguing that corn and coffee have one more longer-term leg down. Perhaps sugar as well. I wonder if there is some type of consistent (e.g. inverse) correlation to the USD.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
@millie - Here are interesting comments on this subject:

1 - Darrel Good : Value Of The U.S. Dollar And Corn Prices
http://www.farms.com/farmspages/expertsbio/tabid/293/default.aspx?newsid=28712&authorid=76

2 - How the Dollar Impacts Commodity Prices
http://commodities.about.com/od/researchcommodities/a/How-The-Dollar-Impacts-Commodity-Prices.htm


David
+1 Reply
27 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Here is the chart as of this Sunday:

snapshot



There is a risk of further ascent at this time, looking at the potential development of a Geo:

snapshot



Looking at this closer, here are a few levels worth heeding, if indeed price were to rally any further:

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

The levels worth heeding are:

1 - 336'0 - This would invalidate any corrective bullish narrative, at least as far of the Geo goes, whereas a break below 319'0 would most certainly mark a new bearish departure point of a 5th wave towards the targets defined last July 2015.

2 - 457'7 - This represents a 1.414 Fibonacci extension, anchoring the Fib matrix at the structures shown in the chart. Considering that we find ourselves in the on-going development of a bullish correction, these anchors are viable options as first reactive levels following a precipitous bearish impulse to the downside - Note also that a 1.618 extension is left open, however, it does not present with the same enticing features associated with the 1.414, namely a preceding structure-low to the left-most aspect of the chart, as well as a 2nd wave cluster validation from the most recent bearish impulse ... Hence, the choice for the 1.414 extension over the 1.618.

3 - The Geo, appearing with its initial 1-2 Leg requirement (near-alignment of a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry), sends forward tentative 1-3 and 2-4 Lines. Typically, the 2-3 Leg is generated from a complex double or triple-zigzag, but in rarer forms, an internal impulse would occur. Considering that this impulse occurs counter-trend to the prevalent bearish market move, we have to consider the possibility that the market is reversing to the top-side. I would look or the generation of a clear and obvious bearish corrective wave carving higher lows before fretting this possibility. For now, the Geo remains the prevalent potential, backed by a Predictive/Forecasting Model which acts independently, free of opinions and with a consistent record. Still, I would set a tolerance line down, such that a breach of the 2-4 Line, originating from Point-1 of the Geo would constitute a Geo failure.

Here is how I define this tolerance line "TL":
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
(Tech-Note ... cont'd):

Here is how I define this tolerance line "TL":

snapshot



Note also the two discreet lines, each emanating from Point-1 of the Geo:

snapshot


I have left them in this position, relative to potential "Geo Anchor" levels expecting that Point-4 might potentially seek repose over one of these. Hence, the recent low following Point-3 is not what I'd expect to be the defining residence of Point-4, but a possible intermediate step in this process - Note the "tunneling" which this 1-4 Line seems to use, as if on purpose. These are one of many discreet interplays that occur in the price field.

We will continue to follow this chart as the weeks go by. Feel free to request specific commodities, as I am slowly expanding my continual research in occult market geometries, seaking further validation of my method outside of the already proven indices, Forex and stocks. So, commodities appear like a next reasonable pasture in which to battle bulls and bears.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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