Following is a composite technical analytic view of $CAC40, in which all aspects of technical tools are displayed as shown in the following chart - We will dissect each of there thereafter:
Looking in detail at each of the following components, let's consider the following items:
1 - PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
As a foreground, stand-alone proprietary element, the "Model" is defining the following targets:
1 - TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015
2 - TG-Lox = 3384.19 - 12 AUG 2015
GEO'S OFF-SET RULE:
The Geo relies on adverse excursions to establish high-probability targets, such that the following expresses the "Geos' Off-Set Rule":
1 - Price retracing from Point-5 aims for validation along the 1-4 Line ( rule);
2 - Price retracing from Point-5' (most common occurrence) aims for price level corresponding to Point-4;
3 - Price retracing from Point-5'' (least common occurrence) aims for a price level corresponding to Point-3.
In the case of the current chart, price retraces from Point-5', thus aiming for a HIGH-PROBABILITY target corresponding to Point-4, which in terms of the Predictive/Forecasting Model corresponds to:
- TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015
In the most immediate support, consider the following cluster:
1 - 1.618-FE = 4180.54
2 - Nodal Core = 4193.88 ("ND")
3 - Point-1 of Geo , offering a structural point of repose as price retraces from Point-2 and Point-5'.
Where 1.618-FE = ND
As shown in the dashed arrow in the chart, this structural level is likely to see a slight retracement capped at the support-turned-resistance of 4601.90.
Levels 1, 2 and 3 on the left side of the price field represent structural levels, such that:
1 - Number-1 represents that level of Geo's Point-1, offering the most immediate structural support from retracement of swing between Geo's Point-2 and Point-5'.
2 - Number-2 Offers a temporizing support which defined a channel capped above by #1 as defined above and #3, which offered the first and subsequent R/S levels as shown - This levels happens to line up with Model's TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015 level.
3 - Number, as explained above, also happens to line up with Model's TG-Lox = 3384.19 - 12 AUG 2015 level.
Bears are taking over. Invalidation would occur if and once price rallied above Point-5', or 5283.71. Still, the Model remains the dominant indicator at this point, tilting the balance in favor of bears with targets defined above and further supported by technicals as mentioned above as well.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
As price submits to the underbelly of the geometry, expect significant resistance along this 2-4 Line, and floor to open up to the original targets at 3759.18 and 3384.19, both defined last Summer (12 AUG 2015):
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Last year, this predictive analysis offered a potential price pathway, as defined by the dashed line from the FORECAST market. In retrospect, price held closely to the gist of the path, as price followed that anticipated zig-zag, carving lower lows and lower-highs:
As of today, price remains at the lower belly of the 2-4 Line, preparing a probable decline, as per Predictive/Forecasting Model. Please, note the addition of a Watch Line ("WL") at 2928.71, offering the lowest probable attainment, before a significant reactive retracement would occur (not quite a reversal, expectedly).
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
CROW Signal Service:
Note the following technical events:
1 - Point-5' = 1.618-FE
2 - Points 3 and 4 = Node, whose 50% (i.e.:nodal core) projects a probable level of support in line with Point-1
3 - Point-3 = structure that defines a structure forward, which is the 100-Fibonacci value of the 1.618-Fibonacci Extension (or 1-618-FE) that defines Point-1's structure (see #2 above)