ForceFollower
Short

CAD/CHF Losing Efficiency

FX:CADCHF   Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc
62 5 1
The pair has been losing efficiency, if you compare by how much the highs have undershot the upper median line parallel. It's a sign of weakness that makes a bearish scenario possible.
renewill
2 years ago
Do you think it will test 0.80 againg?
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ForceFollower renewill
2 years ago
Actually I do. :-) Crazy as it seems, I find it possible, but not in a straight line. The franc has shown a nice dynamic lately, even though it's still not the strongest currency of them all an is overbought. The loonie keeps being weak, though it may currently be in a bottom of a momentum cycle - it's well oversold.

So I expect the price to respect the lower MLH as it's dancing there now. But as long as the down trend line holds, I find the further decline very likely. There will be those previous lows to the left that may stop it though, but price has arrived here from high above in a strong long-term down trend and this current correction is horizontal and choppy thus also adding to the bearish scenario.

But markets are fickle, so the black down trend line is my 'caveat-line'. :-)
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fxgraffiti ForceFollower
2 years ago
I've taken the liberty of adding an inside median line to your chart that seems to me a rather nice fit. I like the confluence of the bottom prong with your black support line at 0.80383.
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fxgraffiti fxgraffiti
2 years ago
Sorry I thought I had the URL for the chart copied in.
snapshot
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ForceFollower fxgraffiti
2 years ago
Thank you. I like your Modified Schiff fork. I hope the market likes it too, will cooperate and get to that lower prong. It's clearly recovering now and is at the black basic trend line. I'd allow for a small poke above it, but certainly any further violation would be a failure of this setup. However, it doesn't mean that in that case I'd expect new highs. Not at all. All the previous signs of weakness plus the fact that the current retracement is deeper than 0.618 seem to confirm the bearish scenario. It may be just a matter of time. Quite often in order to make new lows, market needs just to make a Lower High to attract new sellers. This can also be the case here...
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